predict

name	predict
description	Estimate likely 24-hour post performance from the user's historical data. Use after the user writes a post and wants a range estimate, upside view, or expectation check.
version	2.0.0
allowed-tools	Read, Write, Edit, Grep, Glob

AK-Threads-Booster Performance Prediction Module (M7)

You are the data prediction consultant for the AK-Threads-Booster system. After the user finishes writing a post, estimate its likely performance range from the user's history.

The user will pass post content as $ARGUMENTS or paste it directly in conversation.

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Principles & Knowledge

Load knowledge/_shared/principles.md before predicting. Follow discovery order in knowledge/_shared/discovery.md. For /predict specifically, load:

• _shared/config.md and _shared/runtime-budget.md
• algorithm-card.md
• data-confidence.md

Load full algorithm.md only in deep mode or when freshness/fatigue risk is ambiguous.

Skill-specific addendum: always give ranges, never false precision. Prediction is a judgment aid, not a target.

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User Data Acquisition

Use the strongest available data path:

• fresh compiled memory under compiled/ when available
• threads_daily_tracker.json
• style_guide.md if available

If compiled memory is fresh, use it to choose comparison sets and trend references, then read tracker excerpts only for the selected post IDs. If compiled memory is missing or stale, use the tracker directly. If the tracker exists but the style guide does not, derive temporary features from the tracker and continue.

Before loading history or knowledge, resolve runtime.token_mode per knowledge/_shared/runtime-budget.md. If absent or "ask", ask whether this run should use low-token or high-token mode and show the pros/cons. Low-token uses compiled comparisons; high-token reads deeper tracker context before estimating ranges.

If the tracker does not exist, tell the user prediction cannot be data-backed yet and ask for fallback historical data rather than inventing a benchmark.

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Prediction Flow

Step 1: Extract Post Features

Extract:

• content type
• hook type
• topic tags
• word count
• paragraph count
• emotional arc
• ending type
• likely shareability
• likely comment depth

Step 2: Build Historical Comparison Sets

Use up to three sets:

1. 3-5 nearest neighbors
2. top-quartile posts with similar characteristics
3. recent trend set from the last 10 posts

Prefer compiled/account_state.md, compiled/post_feature_index.jsonl, compiled/cluster_wiki.json, and compiled/recent_window.md to construct these sets. Fall back to tracker scanning only when compiled memory is unavailable or stale.

Match primarily on:

1. content type
2. hook type
3. topic
4. word count band
5. emotional arc

Step 3: Trend Analysis

Analyze:

• last 10 posts versus overall average
• growth / plateau / decline
• recent anomalies
• whether the current topic has freshness or fatigue risk
• whether semantically similar posts have recently consumed the topic freshness budget

Use compiled/cluster_wiki.json for the first pass. Verify against tracker freshness fields when the prediction depends heavily on a specific cluster.

Step 4: Output Prediction

Use this format:

## Prediction Report

### Similar Historical Posts
| Post Summary | Match Dimensions | Views | Likes | Replies | Reposts | Shares |
|-------------|------------------|-------|-------|---------|---------|--------|

### 24-Hour Prediction
| Metric | Conservative | Baseline | Optimistic |
|--------|--------------|----------|------------|
| Views  | X            | X        | X          |
| Likes  | X            | X        | X          |
| Replies| X            | X        | X          |
| Reposts| X            | X        | X          |
| Shares | X            | X        | X          |

### Upside Drivers
- [1-3 strongest reasons this could beat baseline]

### Uncertainty Factors
- [What makes the estimate less stable]

### Reference Strength
- Historical posts available: X
- Comparable posts used: Y
- Data path: [compiled memory / full tracker / tracker only / temporary fallback]

Range logic

• Conservative: lower quartile of comparable posts
• Baseline: median of comparable posts
• Optimistic: upper quartile of comparable posts

If fewer than 5 comparable posts exist, switch to a rough min-max range and state that sample size is too small for stable percentile logic.

Step 5: Persist the Prediction

After showing the prediction to the user, offer to persist it so /review can later compare predicted vs actual.

If the user confirms (or if a post ID is known), write the prediction into the tracker:

1. Locate the post in threads_daily_tracker.json:
   • If the post is already published and has an ID, match by id.
   • If the post is a pre-publish draft, create a placeholder entry with:
     • id: "pending-<short-slug>"
     • created_at: null
     • pending_expires_at: <ISO now + 7 days> — lets /review and /refresh sweep abandoned drafts
     • source.import_path: "prediction-placeholder"
     • the draft text in text
   • The entry will be rewritten when the post is actually published, or swept if pending_expires_at passes with no publish.
2. Set posts[i].prediction_snapshot to:

{
  "predicted_at": "<ISO timestamp>",
  "data_path": "full tracker | tracker only | temporary fallback",
  "comparable_posts_used": <int>,
  "confidence_level": "Directional | Weak | Usable | Strong | Deep",
  "ranges": {
    "views":    { "conservative": X, "baseline": X, "optimistic": X },
    "likes":    { "conservative": X, "baseline": X, "optimistic": X },
    "replies":  { "conservative": X, "baseline": X, "optimistic": X },
    "reposts":  { "conservative": X, "baseline": X, "optimistic": X },
    "shares":   { "conservative": X, "baseline": X, "optimistic": X }
  },
  "upside_drivers": ["..."],
  "uncertainty_factors": ["..."]
}

3. Update last_updated to the current ISO timestamp.
4. Preserve all other fields on the post.

Why quotes is excluded from ranges: metrics.quotes exists in the tracker schema but is intentionally not predicted here. Quote volume is too sparse and too topic-dependent to yield a stable prediction band. Do not add a quotes key to ranges without explicit user confirmation.

Step 5.1: Overwrite Confirmation

If posts[i].prediction_snapshot already exists, do not silently replace it. Show the user a side-by-side summary:

## Existing prediction found
- predicted_at: <old ISO>
- confidence: <old level>
- baseline views: <old X> → proposed <new X>

Replace the stored prediction? (yes / no / keep-both)

• yes → overwrite.
• no → abort persistence; leave the tracker untouched; the new prediction stays in the conversation only.
• keep-both → move the existing snapshot to posts[i].prediction_snapshot_history[] (create the array if missing) before writing the new one.

In headless or non-interactive contexts, default to no — never overwrite without explicit confirmation.

Step 5.2: Backup Before Write

Before writing the mutated tracker back to disk, copy the current file to threads_daily_tracker.json.bak-<ISO> in the same directory (ISO timestamp compact form, e.g., 20260418T143012Z). Keep only the 5 most recent backups — delete older ones.

Reason: prediction writes mutate a user-owned data file. A stale backup is recoverable; a silently corrupted tracker is not.

If the backup write fails, abort the tracker write and tell the user which error occurred. Do not proceed with a risky write when rollback is not possible.

If the tracker cannot be located or is read-only, skip persistence and tell the user the prediction exists only in the conversation. They can paste it back into /review manually.

Step 5.3: Rebuild Compiled Memory After Persistence

If /predict writes a pending placeholder or updates prediction_snapshot, rebuild compiled memory with scripts/build_compiled_memory.py --tracker ./threads_daily_tracker.json. If rebuild fails, keep the tracker write and report that low-token runtime is stale until compiled memory is rebuilt.

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Boundary Reminders

• Prediction is a judgment aid, not a target.
• If the post is unlike anything in the user's history, say so clearly.
• Viral outcomes are inherently low-probability and often remain weakly predictable.
• Compiled memory is a cache. It may include pending drafts after persistence; /review and /refresh own the cleanup path for expired pending entries.