// Generate deep research reports on prediction market events using the Octagon Prediction Markets Agent. Combines real-time Kalshi market data with AI-driven analysis to surface price drivers, compare market vs. model probabilities, and identify potential mispricings across 120+ active markets.
| name | prediction-markets-analysis |
| description | Generate deep research reports on prediction market events using the Octagon Prediction Markets Agent. Combines real-time Kalshi market data with AI-driven analysis to surface price drivers, compare market vs. model probabilities, and identify potential mispricings across 120+ active markets. |
Generate comprehensive research reports on prediction market events using the Octagon Prediction Markets Agent. This skill combines real-time Kalshi market data with AI-driven analysis to identify mispricings, surface price drivers, and provide actionable trading insights.
Ensure Octagon MCP is configured in your AI agent (Cursor, Claude Desktop, Windsurf, etc.). See references/mcp-setup.md for installation instructions.
Note: Report generation requires Octagon Plus, Pro, or Enterprise subscription (3 credits per report). Cached reports are free for all users.
The Prediction Markets Agent provides:
| Capability | Description |
|---|---|
| Market vs. Model Probability | Computes independent model probability and compares against live market price |
| Event-Driven Research | Identifies key claims, catalysts, and decision-flipping events |
| Historical Resolution Tracking | Surfaces past resolution outcomes for context on base rates |
| Contract Snapshot | Returns live bid/ask spreads, last traded price, volume, and open interest |
| Cross-Category Coverage | 120+ active markets across Politics, Economics, Crypto, Sports, Entertainment, Science & Tech, Climate |
| Variant | Description | Use Case |
|---|---|---|
octagon-prediction-markets-agent | Default. Returns cached report if available, otherwise generates new | General use |
octagon-prediction-markets-agent:cache | Always retrieves cached report | Fastest response, may not be latest |
octagon-prediction-markets-agent:refresh | Always generates fresh report | Most up-to-date, takes several minutes |
Analyze this Fed decision prediction market: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfeddecision/fed-meeting/kxfeddecision-26jun
Research this Bitcoin price prediction market: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbtcminy/how-low-will-bitcoin-fall-this-year/kxbtcminy-27jan01
Analyze this NHL playoff prediction market: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnhleast/eastern-conference-championship/kxnhleast-26
Research this Grammy nomination market: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgrammynomsoty/grammy-nominees-for-song-of-the-year/kxgrammynomsoty-69
Analyze when SpaceX will IPO: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxipospacex/when-will-spacex-ipo/kxipospacex
Generate a fresh report (bypass cache) for: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbtcminy/how-low-will-bitcoin-fall-this-year/kxbtcminy-27jan01
## Market Overview
- **Event**: Fed Decision June 2026
- **Resolution Date**: June 18, 2026
- **Current Market Price**: 72% (Hold rates)
- **Model Probability**: 68%
- **Mispricing Signal**: Market slightly overpriced
## Price Drivers
1. **Recent Economic Data**: CPI trending lower, supporting rate hold
2. **Fed Communications**: Dovish tone in recent FOMC minutes
3. **Labor Market**: Unemployment stable at 4.1%
## Key Catalysts
| Date | Event | Potential Impact |
|------|-------|------------------|
| June 10 | CPI Release | High - could shift probabilities 5-10% |
| June 12 | FOMC Statement | Medium - language on future path |
## Historical Resolution Context
- Last 6 meetings: 4 holds, 2 cuts
- Model accuracy on this series: 78%
## Contract Details
| Outcome | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | OI |
|---------|-----|-----|------|--------|-----|
| Hold | 0.71 | 0.73 | 0.72 | 15,234 | 89,000 |
| Cut 25bp | 0.18 | 0.20 | 0.19 | 8,456 | 45,000 |
| Hike | 0.08 | 0.10 | 0.09 | 2,100 | 12,000 |
## Recommendation
**Slight Sell** on Hold contract. Model sees 4% overpricing. Consider waiting for CPI data before positioning.
The agent covers 120+ active markets across:
| Category | Example Markets |
|---|---|
| Politics | Elections, legislation, executive actions |
| Economics | Fed decisions, inflation, employment data |
| Crypto | Bitcoin/Ethereum price ranges, ETF approvals |
| Sports | Championship outcomes, playoff matchups |
| Entertainment | Awards shows, box office, streaming |
| Science & Tech | Space launches, AI milestones, IPO timing |
| Climate | Temperature records, hurricane landfalls |
Compare crowd consensus against model-derived probability to find trading opportunities.
Research key drivers behind a prediction market price before placing a trade.
Monitor upcoming events that could move contract prices.
Get structured, sourced research on fast-moving events in politics, finance, and beyond.
Use the prediction_markets_history tool to fetch historical data:
Fetch historical data for prediction market ticker KXFEDDECISION-26JUN from January to June 2026
Parameters:
ticker: Market ticker symbolcaptured_from: Start date filtercaptured_to: End date filterlimit: Number of recordscursor: Pagination cursorCombine with other Octagon skills for comprehensive analysis:
| Skill | Integration Use |
|---|---|
earnings-call-analysis | Analyze CEO comments relevant to prediction market events |
sec-8k-analysis | Track material events that could impact market outcomes |
stock-performance | Correlate stock moves with prediction market probabilities |
Check model vs. market spread: Larger spreads suggest potential mispricings
Monitor catalyst calendar: Know when decision-flipping events are scheduled
Review resolution history: Past accuracy provides context for current probabilities
Consider liquidity: Check volume and open interest before sizing positions
Use cache wisely: Use :cache for quick checks, :refresh before trading
Cross-reference sources: Combine prediction market analysis with fundamental research
Browse the full list of supported markets at octagonai.co/markets.
Retrieve analyst financial estimates including Revenue and EPS projections with low/high ranges and analyst coverage. Use when analyzing forward expectations, consensus estimates, valuation inputs, or comparing projections to historical performance.
Retrieve year-over-year growth in balance sheet items including Total Assets, Total Liabilities, Shareholders Equity, Cash, and Inventories. Use when analyzing company financial position trends, capital structure changes, or liquidity management.
Retrieve detailed balance sheet statement data including Total Assets, Current Assets, Non-Current Assets, Liabilities, Equity, and Net Debt for public companies. Use when analyzing financial position, capital structure, or leverage metrics.
Retrieve market capitalization data for multiple companies at once using Octagon MCP. Use when comparing valuations across peers, screening by market cap, or analyzing a portfolio's composition by company size.
Retrieve year-over-year growth in cash flow metrics including Operating Cash Flow, Free Cash Flow, and Net Cash Flow. Use when analyzing company cash generation trends, capital allocation efficiency, or liquidity trajectory.
Retrieve real-time or historical cash flow statement data including Net Income, Operating Cash Flow, Investing Cash Flow, Financing Cash Flow, Free Cash Flow, and Cash Position for public companies. Use when analyzing cash generation, capital allocation, or liquidity trends.
