update-indicators

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name: update-indicators description: Refresh the annual sub-national indicators data (data/indicators.json) — registered unemployment per municipality from Агенция по заетостта and DZI (state matura exam) average scores per municipality from МОН via data.egov.bg. Use when the daily watch report flags new annual reviews ("AZ (Агенция по заетостта)" or "МОН: ДЗИ резултати"), when the user asks to refresh indicators, when adding a new annual sub-national indicator (EU funds, healthcare access), or after a fresh git clone if data/indicators.json is missing. allowed-tools:

• Read
• Bash
• Edit
• Write

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Update Indicators skill

Refreshes data/indicators.json — annual sub-national indicators rendered on municipality drilldowns, /sofia, and (in Phase 3) the /demographics muni choropleth.

Source contract:

Indicator	Source	Granularity	Cadence
unemployment	AZ годишен обзор (/stats/4/)	265 municipalities (Sofia as one city aggregate under SOF00)	annual
dzi	МОН via data.egov.bg dataset 066b4b04	~243 municipalities (rural munis without upper-secondary schools omitted)	annual (May-June primary session)
populationChange	НСИ Pop_6.1.1_Pop_DR.xlsx (one sheet per year)	264 municipalities (Sofia as one city aggregate under SOF00); value is YoY % change	annual
naturalIncrease	НСИ births Pop_1.2.1._birth_DR.xlsx + deaths Pop_2.1._mortality_DR.xlsx + population Pop_6.1.1_Pop_DR.xlsx	264 municipalities (Сърница PAZ39 is not broken out in the NSI births/deaths files); value is the crude rate of natural increase ‰ = (births − deaths) / population × 1000	annual
netMigration	НСИ internal migration Pop_5.1_Migration_DR.xlsx + population Pop_6.1.1_Pop_DR.xlsx	264 municipalities; value is the net internal migration rate ‰ = net migration / population × 1000	annual

Future indicators (EU funds, healthcare) plug in by adding a SOURCES entry in scripts/indicators/fetch.ts. Cadence is annual for everything in this pipeline.

The watcher fingerprints the NSI source files via indicators_nsi_pop (population) and indicators_nsi_vital (births + deaths + migration); both map to this skill in process-watch-report.

When to run

Trigger	Action
Daily watcher reports AZ (Агенция по заетостта): new year(s) YYYY	Step 1 below
User asks "refresh indicators" / "update unemployment" / "add YYYY annual data"	Same
Adding a new indicator (DZI, EU funds, ...)	Implement the source under scripts/indicators/sources/, append to SOURCES, run
Fresh clone with no data/indicators.json	Same as step 1 (full backfill)

AZ publishes its annual review in Q1 of the following year. Day-to-day this skill has nothing to do.

Step 1 — Fetch

npx tsx scripts/indicators/fetch.ts

Expected output for a normal incremental run:

[unemployment] scraping...
AZ /stats/4/: 18 annual reviews found (2008..2025), processing 18.
  2008..2015: no muni-level XLSX, skipping.
  2016: ...
  ...
  2025: 530 rows, years 2024,2025
[unemployment] parsed N raw rows
[unemployment] normalize: N matched, 0 unmatched

Wrote /Users/.../data/indicators.json (≈75 KB)
  unemployment: 265 munis, years 2016..YYYY

If unmatched > 0: a row's municipality name doesn't map to an obshtina code. Add an entry to scripts/indicators/sources/_name_aliases.json and re-run. Common reasons:

• AZ renamed or relocated a municipality (rare).
• A new annual review uses a parenthetical disambiguator that doesn't already match (e.g. Бяла (Русе)) — the normalizer already strips that suffix, but new patterns may need explicit aliases.
• 2008-2015 backfill: those years are PDF-only and currently skipped. Don't add aliases for them until PDF parsing lands.

If the safety floor trips (safety check: ...): investigate before re-running. The floors are 260 munis covered and median-muni ≥ 2 years.

Useful flags

• --max-years N — only ingest the N most recent annual reviews. Useful for quick smoke tests.
• --force — re-download cached XLSX files in raw_data/indicators/az/. Default is to reuse the local copy.
• --source <id> — limit to one source (e.g. unemployment).
• --quiet — suppress progress output.

Step 2 — Verify

node -e "
const d = require('./data/indicators.json');
for (const [k, meta] of Object.entries(d.indicators)) {
  const muniN = Object.keys(d.series[k]).length;
  console.log(k.padEnd(16), 'munis=' + muniN, 'years', meta.years[0] + '..' + meta.years[1]);
}
console.log('size:', require('fs').statSync('./data/indicators.json').size, 'bytes');
"

Spot-check known extremes:

• unemployment.VID09 (Видин) should be ~7-13% in the latest decade.
• unemployment.SOF00 (София-град aggregate) should be under 3% — Sofia city has the lowest unemployment in the country.
• unemployment.PAZ39 (Сърница, aliased from AZ's PAZ30) should be 15-30% — historically the highest in Bulgaria.

File size is ~75 KB for one indicator × 10 years × 265 munis. >200 KB suggests a duplicate-write bug.

Step 3 — Stamp ingest + commit

npx tsx scripts/stamp-ingest.ts update-indicators --summary "refresh through <latest year>"
git add data/indicators.json state/ingest/update-indicators.json
git commit -m "indicators: refresh through <latest year>"

If you added a new indicator, also commit the source scripts:

git add scripts/indicators/ src/data/indicators/ data/indicators.json
git commit -m "indicators: add <indicatorId> from <source>"

Step 4 — Upload to bucket (when applicable)

npm run bucket:sync

(Or npm run bucket:sync:dry-run first.)

Adding a new indicator (advanced)

1. Identify the source. Verify the publisher offers structured (XLSX/CSV/JSON) annual data per municipality. PDF-only sources require a separate parsing path and shouldn't go through this pipeline.
2. Implement the scraper. Add scripts/indicators/sources/<source>.ts exporting a function that returns NormalizeInput[] rows. Use raw_data/indicators/<source>/ for cached downloads.
3. Register in fetch.ts. Append to SOURCES with the indicator id, scrape function, labels in both BG and EN, unit strings, and safety floors.
4. Register the watcher. Add scripts/watch/sources/indicators_<source>.ts fingerprinting the source's release page, then add it to scripts/watch/sources/index.ts.
5. Update the consumer. Add the indicator id + delta-kind + formatter rule in src/data/indicators/useIndicators.tsx (Phase 2).
6. Run this skill to regenerate data/indicators.json.

What this skill does NOT do

• Does not refresh oblast-level (NUTS3) indicators. Those come from Eurostat via update-regional — separate pipeline, separate file (data/regional.json).
• Does not refresh macro-level indicators. Those come from update-macro.
• Does not parse PDF-only sources. AZ's 2008-2015 annual reviews are PDF — coverage starts at 2016. PDF parsing is a future enhancement, not core to this skill.
• Does not split Sofia into 24 districts. No public source publishes per-район data; the Sofia city aggregate is stored under SOF00 and the consumer-side hook falls back from any S2xxx district code.

Data-integrity contract

Surface	Trigger
HTTP non-2xx for the listing or any XLSX	HTTP <status> ... for <url>
Unrecognised XLSX layout	parseXlsx(...): could not find header row (NUTS or ПОКАЗАТЕЛИ)
Per-source muni floor breach	safety check: [<id>] covered <N> obshtina codes (floor M)
Median-years floor breach	safety check: [<id>] median muni has <N> years (floor M)
Unmatched name with no alias	Logged, not fatal — investigate and update _name_aliases.json before committing

File map

Path	Purpose
scripts/indicators/fetch.ts	CLI orchestrator
scripts/indicators/sources/az_unemployment.ts	AZ discovery + XLSX parse
scripts/indicators/sources/_name_aliases.json	Manual code / name → obshtina overrides
scripts/indicators/normalize.ts	Apply aliases, validate
scripts/indicators/build.ts	Merge per-source rows → payload
scripts/watch/sources/indicators_az.ts	Daily watcher fingerprint
raw_data/indicators/az/<year>.xlsx	Cached downloads (gitignored)
data/indicators.json	Generated payload (~75 KB, minified) — committed
src/data/indicators/useIndicators.tsx	Consumer hook (Phase 2)
src/screens/dashboard/IndicatorsTile.tsx	Drilldown tile (Phase 2)