credit-analyzer

name	credit-analyzer
description	Bond and credit analysis. Prices bonds, computes yield to maturity, duration, convexity, and spread-to-benchmark. Analyzes credit quality, covenant risk, and refinancing risk. Compares corporate bonds vs sovereign alternatives. Works for Turkish Eurobonds, BIST bonds, US Treasuries, and corporate bonds.

Credit Analyzer

Trigger phrases

• "Bu tahvilin YTM'si nedir?"
• "Bond pricing: [issuer] [coupon]% [maturity]"
• "Duration ve convexity hesapla"
• "Hazine bonosu vs kurumsal tahvil karşılaştır"
• "Türkiye Eurobond analizi"
• "Credit spread nedir? [şirket] tahvili"
• "Analyze bond: [ISIN or description]"

Input parameters

Parameter	Description
issuer	Company or sovereign name
coupon_rate	Annual coupon rate (%)
face_value	Par value (default: 1000)
maturity_date	Maturity date or years to maturity
frequency	Coupon frequency: annual/semi-annual/quarterly
current_price	Market price (% of par, e.g. 98.5)
settlement_date	T+2 from today (default)

Phases

Phase 1 — Bond identification & data

If ISIN or description provided, search via WebSearch for current price, coupon, maturity. For Turkish bonds: fetch from WebSearch (e.g. "Turkey 2028 Eurobond price") or BIST bond market data. For US Treasuries: use current yield curve (fetch via WebSearch: "US Treasury yield today").

Phase 2 — Yield to Maturity (YTM)

Newton-Raphson iteration to find YTM (r) where:

Price = Σ [Coupon / (1+r)^t] + [FaceValue / (1+r)^T]

For semi-annual coupons: coupon/2, r/2, double periods.

Convergence: start with r = coupon/price; iterate 10 times.

Also compute:

• Yield to Call (if callable): substitute call date and call price
• Current yield: annual coupon / current price
• Discount/premium: (Price - Par) / Par × 100%

Phase 3 — Duration & Convexity

Macaulay Duration:

D = Σ [t × PV(CFt)] / Price

Modified Duration (price sensitivity to rate change):

MD = Macaulay Duration / (1 + YTM/frequency)
Price change ≈ -MD × ΔYTM × Price

Convexity (second-order correction):

Convex = Σ [t(t+1) × PV(CFt)] / [Price × (1+r)²]

Combined price change for ΔYTM:

ΔP/P ≈ -MD × ΔYTM + 0.5 × Convexity × ΔYTM²

Present in table:

Rate change	Duration effect	Convexity correction	Net price change
-200bps
-100bps
+100bps
+200bps

Phase 4 — Credit spread analysis

Spread to benchmark:

Credit spread = YTM(bond) - YTM(benchmark)

Benchmark: same-maturity government bond (Turkey GB for Turkish issuers, US Treasury for USD bonds).

Fetch benchmark yield via WebSearch.

Spread interpretation:

• < 50bps: investment grade (AAA-AA)
• 50-150bps: investment grade (A-BBB)
• 150-400bps: high yield (BB)

• 400bps: distressed / CCC territory

Z-spread (vs swap curve): if swap rates available, compute parallel shift to discount curve.

Phase 5 — Credit quality assessment

Research via WebSearch:

• Credit rating: Moody's / S&P / Fitch (or implied from spread)
• Rating trend: stable / positive / negative outlook
• Key credit metrics:
  • Net debt / EBITDA (< 3× = investment grade)
  • Interest coverage (EBITDA / Interest > 3× = safe)
  • Free cash flow / Total debt > 10% = positive
• Recent rating actions or watch-list placement

Covenant check (if prospectus available):

• Change of control put
• Debt incurrence covenant
• Dividend restriction
• Cross-default provision

Phase 6 — Refinancing risk

• Maturity wall: what debt matures in next 2-3 years?
• Available credit facilities / revolving credit
• Market access: issuer has issued recently? Spread trend tightening or widening?
• For sovereigns: IMF program, FX reserves, current account deficit

Phase 7 — Comparison vs alternatives

Build comparison table for similar maturity:

Instrument	Yield	Duration	Credit rating	Liquidity
This bond
Govt benchmark
Sector peer bond
TRY deposit (if TRY bond)

Breakeven analysis: at what spread widening does the government bond outperform?

Breakeven = current spread - coupon advantage / modified duration

Phase 8 — Output

Write output/credit-<issuer>-<YYYYMMDD>.md:

# Credit Analysis: <Issuer> <Coupon>% <Maturity>

## Bond Summary
## Pricing & Yield Metrics
## Duration & Rate Sensitivity
## Credit Spread Analysis
## Credit Quality Assessment
## Covenant Highlights
## Refinancing Risk
## Comparison vs Alternatives
## Recommendation
## Assumptions

Disclaimer: Bond prices fluctuate. Credit ratings can change. Illiquid bonds may have wide bid-ask spreads. Not investment advice.