| name | fa-unit-economics-model |
| description | Provides the single shared, versioned unit-economics model for consumer one-off / in-app-purchase products, created in Discovery and re-run at every gate. Covers inputs (CPI, install->payer conversion, ARPPU, repeat purchase, ad ARPDAU), the gross-to-net stack (store commission, refunds, chargebacks, fraud, tax), LTV by segment, payback window, and a cashflow/working-capital check. Use whenever product economics must be initialized, updated with measured data, or evaluated at a gate. |
| license | MIT |
Gaia Unit Economics Model
Scope and when to use
Use to maintain ONE canonical, versioned model that every stage reads and updates.
No stage re-derives economics from scratch. Premium LTV is realized at install
(finite, no tail); IAP LTV is back-loaded and whale-driven.
Use when:
- Discovery must initialize model v0 (all inputs flagged as assumptions)
- a specialist returns measured inputs (CPI, WTP, ARPPU, retention) to fold in
- a gate needs the current net-of-fee LTV:CAC, payback, and cashflow read
Do not use when:
- the product is B2B SaaS (different LTV/churn math)
Required inputs
- acquisition: CPI per source/geo, organic share, blended CAC
- conversion: install→payer rate, repeat-purchase rate, time-to-first-purchase
- value: ARPPU (lifetime/per-cohort, NOT monthly), ad ARPDAU, segment mix
- haircuts: store commission (15/30%), refund/chargeback %, fraud %, indirect tax %
- timing: retention curve (D1/D7/D30+), paying lifetime, payout lag
Owned outputs
- net blended LTV per install (IAP net-of-fee + ad net-of-rev-share)
- LTV:CAC ratio and payback window
- cashflow gap to break-even and required runway
- a version stamp (v0..vN) and a changelog of which inputs became measured
Core workflow
- Initialize v0 with assumptions; label every input assumption-vs-measured.
- Compute gross revenue per payer and per install from conversion × ARPPU.
- Apply the gross-to-net stack: commission, refunds, chargebacks, fraud, tax.
- Add the ad component (eCPM × fill × sessions, net of network rev-share) for hybrid titles.
- Compute net LTV per install, LTV:CAC, and payback window by source.
- Run conservative/base/optimistic cases and sensitivity on install volume and conversion × ARPPU.
- Run the cashflow check: payout lag vs CAC timing; compute the cash gap to break-even.
- Re-version whenever a measured input replaces an assumption; keep the changelog.
Segments
- non-payers (monetize via ads), minnows, dolphins, whales (top decile drives most IAP).
- treat whale concentration as a fragility risk, not a static fact.
Anti-patterns
- do not quote gross revenue at a gate
- do not use monthly ARPPU or MRR framing (that is subscription math)
- do not ignore the payout-lag cash gap
- do not freeze assumptions as if measured
Handoff and downstream impact
- give the money gate the net-of-fee LTV:CAC, payback, and cash gap
- give specialists the current version and which inputs still need measuring
Completion checklist
- every input is labeled assumption or measured
- net-of-fee LTV:CAC, payback, and cash gap are current
- the version and changelog are updated
References
