growthub-causal-impact-analysis

name	growthub-causal-impact-analysis
description	Derive what a workspace change would actually affect BEFORE proposing it — blast radius, downstream dependencies, lineage, stale surfaces, workflow impact, app readiness, and patch impact — using the workspace metadata graph and the pure derivers. Use when asked "what breaks if I change this", before any PATCH/publish/remove, when triaging a broken widget or workflow, or when assessing whether an app surface is ship-ready.
triggers	["what breaks if I change this","blast radius","downstream dependencies","trace lineage","simulate impact","is this app ready to ship","stale surfaces"]
helpers	[]
subSkills	[]
selfEval	{"criteria":["Impact claims come from the derivers / MCP tools over the live metadata graph, never from guessing at config JSON by eye.","Every removal or rename ran derivePatchImpact (or MCP preflight_patch) and the remove-impact set is quoted before the change is proposed.","The analysis names concrete downstream node ids (widgets, dashboards, workflows, runs), not vague categories.","Read-only throughout — this skill performs zero mutations; the governed hand-off belongs to growthub-governed-mutation-loop.","Verdicts distinguish direct dependents (single hop) from transitive closure (full blast radius)."],"maxRetries":3}

growthub-causal-impact-analysis

Concept doc: docs/CAUSATION_ITT_ELIGIBILITY_DRIVERS.md — high-entropy workspace state → deterministic, read-only derivation → low-entropy actionable guidance. The Intelligence layer contract is docs/GOVERNED_MCP_CONSOLE_V1.md.

Surfaces (pick the highest-authority one available)

1. MCP console — growthub serve --mcp [--live <url>]: get_workspace_topology, describe_node, find_downstream_dependencies (blast radius), simulate_causal_impact (stale surfaces + workflow impact), trace_lineage (direction: dependents | dependencies | both | ancestors | descendants), app_readiness. All read-only; --live rehydrates per call.
2. Runtime route — GET /api/workspace/metadata-graph (typed node/edge world model; also rendered by the Workspace Map).
3. Pure derivers (CLI bridge: cli/src/runtime/workspace-derivations.ts; source in the starter kit apps/workspace/lib/): deriveBlastRadius (workspace-metadata-impact.js), deriveStaleSurfaces (workspace-stale-surfaces.js), deriveWorkflowImpact (workspace-workflow-impact.js), deriveProvenanceLineage (workspace-provenance-lineage.js), deriveAppReadiness (workspace-app-readiness.js), deriveContractCompliance (workspace-contract-compliance.js), derivePatchImpact (workspace-patch-impact.js — the ONE shared add/modify/remove impact model used by the preflight route, growthub patch, and MCP alike).

Recipe

1. Resolve the node id for the thing being changed (get_workspace_topology or describe_node).
2. Single-hop first: who directly depends on it (findDependents)?
3. Full closure: find_downstream_dependencies / deriveBlastRadius — this is the transitive reverse-dependency closure, the honest answer to "what breaks".
4. For edits: simulate_causal_impact → stale surfaces + workflow impact. For removals/renames: derivePatchImpact on the current-vs-merged pair — removal impact is the category agents most often skip.
5. For ship/no-ship questions: app_readiness → {ready, blocking[], nextAction}.
6. Attach the verdict to the proposal, then hand off to growthub-governed-mutation-loop (preflight will recompute the same impact server-side — the two must agree, since both use derivePatchImpact).

Hard rules

• Derivers are pure: no fetch, no React, no mutation, never throw, secrets redacted. If a "deriver" you are about to write needs I/O, it is not a deriver.
• Validate against a live boot (node scripts/export-seed-workspace.mjs), not hand-built fixtures.
• This skill never mutates; if the user asks to apply the change, switch skills — do not shortcut.