measure-results

name	measure-results
description	Ingest a launch/campaign's real post-publish results for ONE channel, produce a structured what-worked/what-failed read against that channel's playbook pack, and feed a dated entry back into the pack so the next launch compounds. Closes the metrics loop (pillar 3). Not for scoring a single organic post in an eval loop (use evaluate-content), paid-ad results (use evaluate-ad), short-form video (use evaluate-shortform), or landing-page CRO (use evaluate-landing-page).
argument-hint	<channel> <results-paste-or-path> [--slug <campaign>] [--launch-artifact <path>]
allowed-tools	Read Write Bash Grep Glob
metadata	{"version":"1.0.0","budget":"standard","estimated-cost":"$0.40-1.20"}

Measure Results — Loop Closer

4 agents (metric-ingest → diagnosis → pack-feedback → critic) turn a channel's real launch results into a structured read and a dated entry written back into that channel's playbook pack, so the next launch on the channel starts from evidence, not a blank page. Capability: routing.yaml. Agents + rubric: references/agent-manifest.md. Method: references/playbook.md.

Core question: Which specific pack tactic earned (or cost) the result — and what should the next launch on this channel keep, drop, or test?

Critical Gates — load first

1. One channel per run. Multi-channel results = one run per channel (the pack is per-channel).
2. Pack-grounded or transparent. Diagnose against the channel's pack (§3 signals, §5 playbook); if no pack covers the channel, say so and produce a general read — never fake channel attribution (legibility convention).
3. Evidence, not vibes. Every "what worked" names the tactic + the number that supports it. No number → it's a hypothesis, labelled as one.
4. Loop write-back is the point. A run that produces a read but writes nothing back to the pack/performance store has not closed the loop.

Before Starting

Apply references/_shared/before-starting-check.md. Then:

Input	Source	Required?
Channel results (paste or path)	operator	Hard — the numbers to read
Channel pack	references/_shared/platform-intelligence/[channel].md	Rec — the tactics to attribute against
Launch artifact	plan-campaign / launch chain comms plan	Rec — the hypotheses being tested
.forsvn/performance/*.tsv	prior runs	Opt — trend context

Mode per references/_shared/mode-resolver.md. budget: standard. --fast → ingest + read, skip the trend layer; never skips the pack write-back or the critic. Pre-Dispatch per references/procedures/pre-dispatch.md.

Quality Gate — 5 dimensions

Full rubric: references/rubric.md.

• Attribution — each result traced to a named pack tactic / ranking signal (not "it went well")
• Falsifiability — claims carry the supporting number; hypotheses labelled
• Honesty — failures named as plainly as wins (anti-sycophancy)
• Actionability — a concrete keep/drop/test for the next launch
• Write-back fidelity — the pack entry + performance row are accurate and dated

Pass ≥35/50 AND no dim 0. FAIL twice → BLOCKED, no write-back.

Artifact Contract

• Path: docs/forsvn/artifacts/marketing/measure-results/[channel]-[YYYY-MM-DD]-[slug].md. Lifecycle: evaluation.
• Frontmatter (12): skill, version, date, stack, type, id, review_surface, status, channel, pack_verified, applied_tactics, keywords.
• Body: Results table (metric · value · vs-expected) · What worked (tactic + number) · What failed · Keep/Drop/Test · Hypothesis verdicts · Pack write-back block · Legibility (**Legibility — applied expertise** — pack measured-against + its §3/§5 signals the read used; convention: references/_shared/legibility-convention.md) · Critic verdict. Legibility only — measure-results produces a measurement, not a marketing artifact, so no ## Why this works block.
• Side effects (on critic PASS): append a dated entry to the channel pack changelog (references/format-conventions.md § Pack write-back); append a row to .forsvn/performance/[channel].tsv; if a hosted key is present, mirror the result to the cross-session metrics feed (bun scripts/forsvn-hosted.ts metrics [channel] --worked "..." --failed "..." — POSTs /v1/metrics, best-effort, inert without a key, never blocks). Full contract: references/format-conventions.md.

Routing + Dispatch

Sequential graph (metric-ingest → diagnosis → pack-feedback → critic). Dispatch + revision cycle: references/procedures/dispatch-mechanics.md.

Chain Position

Prev: the launch chain (plan-campaign / publish-social) OR a raw results paste. Next: the next launch on this channel reads the updated pack (loop closed). Re-run: new results, corrected numbers, a second channel.

Deference: single organic post in a loop → evaluate-content; paid ad → evaluate-ad; short-form video → evaluate-shortform; landing page → evaluate-landing-page.

Anti-Patterns

references/anti-patterns.md — 8 patterns (vanity-metric-only, sycophantic read, unattributed win, no write-back, multi-channel-in-one-run, faked attribution without a pack, hosted-post-blocks-run, overwriting pack tactics instead of appending). Re-read before write-back.

Durable Rules (protected)

Completion Status

• DONE — read produced, critic ≥35, pack + performance write-back done.
• DONE_WITH_CONCERNS — delivered; critic 25-34 OR a stale/absent pack (read shipped, attribution caveated).
• BLOCKED — critic FAIL twice; no usable numbers; channel pack write would overwrite (needs operator).
• NEEDS_CONTEXT — no results provided; recommend re-running after the launch has data.

Worked Example

Product Hunt launch read (rank 3, 412 upvotes → which §5 tactics earned it → keep/drop/test → pack changelog entry + hosted feed): references/examples/measure-walkthrough.md.