hypotheses

name	hypotheses
version	1.0
description	Hypothesis-driven job search: define what you're testing, execute outreach and applications, validate results, decide to continue or pivot
triggers	["hypoth","гипотез","campaign","кампания","outreach plan","plan outreach","validate","валидир"]

Hypotheses & Campaigns

Define job search hypotheses, execute outreach campaigns, validate results. Strategy lives in hypotheses/, execution in applications/campaign_*/.

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Core Principle

Job search is hypothesis-driven. Each hypothesis is a bet: "I think companies like X need someone like me for role Y."

The system separates strategy (what we're testing and why) from execution (messages sent, responses received, status tracking).

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Routing Rules — Who Puts What Where

This is the canonical reference for where artifacts live in the project.

hypotheses/ — Strategy Only

Contains only strategic thinking, no execution files.

File	Purpose
hypotheses_index.md	Master index: all hypotheses with status
[slug]/hypothesis.md	What we're testing, why, success criteria, validation results

What does NOT belong here:

• Outreach plans → applications/campaign_*/
• Message templates → applications/campaign_*/
• Sent messages → applications/campaign_*/messages/
• CV snapshots → applications/campaign_*/cv_sent.md

applications/ — Execution

All day-to-day work lives here. Two types of folders:

app_[company]_[date]/ — Formal Application

Frozen snapshot of CV + cover letter sent to one specific company.

File	Purpose
cv_sent.md	Exact CV text sent (frozen, never changes)
cover_letter.md	(optional) Cover letter text (frozen)

Created when: User formally applies to a company via ATS, email, or referral.

campaign_[name]/ — Batch Outreach

Working folder for cold outreach to multiple companies. Everything you need day-to-day in one place.

File	Purpose
outreach_plan.md	Company lists, tracks (A/B), priorities, status tracking, stats — single source of truth for the campaign
cold_outreach_templates.md	Message templates by domain cluster
cv_sent.md	CV snapshot for batch (one CV sent to all)
messages/[company].md	Sent message drafts per company

Created when: User starts a batch outreach campaign (many companies, one hypothesis).

Why everything in one folder: During execution, you shouldn't need to jump between folders. Open campaign folder → everything is there.

target_roles/ — Role Artifacts Only

Role-specific analysis and generated documents. No outreach, no hypothesis content.

File	Purpose
role_profile.md	Merged JD requirements, domain context
skills_mapping.md	Achievement-to-requirement mapping + readiness assessment
cv.md	Living CV (evolves with each new JD)
cover_letter.md	(optional) Cover letter draft for a specific company
jd_[company]_[date].md	Full original JD text

achievements/ — Evidence (Stories)

Source of truth for all claims. Role-agnostic — no skills analysis here.

companies_i_worked/ — Company Profiles

Built FROM achievements. Provide context for story-gathering and CV generation.

Quick Reference: Where Does X Go?

Artifact	Location
"I think post-raise startups need me"	hypotheses/[slug]/hypothesis.md
Success criteria for a hypothesis	hypotheses/[slug]/hypothesis.md
Validation results	hypotheses/[slug]/hypothesis.md
Company list for cold outreach	applications/campaign_[name]/outreach_plan.md
Message template for EdTech cluster	applications/campaign_[name]/cold_outreach_templates.md
Actual message sent to Company X	applications/campaign_[name]/messages/[company].md
Status: Company X replied	applications/campaign_[name]/outreach_plan.md (status + stats)
CV sent to 20 companies in a batch	applications/campaign_[name]/cv_sent.md
CV sent to 1 company via ATS	applications/app_[company]_[date]/cv_sent.md
Cover letter for formal application	applications/app_[company]_[date]/cover_letter.md
JD analysis	target_roles/role_[type]/role_profile.md
Skills mapping	target_roles/role_[type]/skills_mapping.md
Living CV (role-level)	target_roles/role_[type]/cv.md

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Directory Structure

hypotheses/
├── README.md                    ← what this directory is, how to use it
├── hypotheses_index.md          ← all hypotheses with status
└── [hypothesis_slug]/
    └── hypothesis.md            ← strategy, criteria, validation

applications/
├── README.md
└── my_data/
    ├── applications_index.md    ← master tracking + conversion funnel
    ├── app_[company]_[date]/    ← formal applications (one per company)
    │   ├── cv_sent.md           ← frozen snapshot
    │   └── cover_letter.md      ← (optional, frozen)
    └── campaign_[name]/         ← batch outreach (one per campaign)
        ├── outreach_plan.md     ← companies, tracks, priorities, status + stats
        ├── cold_outreach_templates.md  ← message templates by cluster
        ├── cv_sent.md           ← CV snapshot for batch
        └── messages/            ← sent message drafts
            └── [company].md

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Hypothesis Lifecycle

1. Define

User describes what they want to test. AI creates:

1. hypotheses/[slug]/hypothesis.md — strategy, positioning, success criteria
2. hypotheses/hypotheses_index.md — adds entry with status 🔬 In progress
3. applications/campaign_[name]/ — creates campaign folder with outreach_plan.md

What goes in hypothesis.md:

• What we're testing and why
• Positioning (what role we're pitching)
• Source (where companies come from)
• Success criteria (defined upfront, measurable)
• Related roles (links to target_roles/)
• Related campaign (link to applications/campaign_*/)

What does NOT go in hypothesis.md:

• Company lists → outreach_plan.md in campaign folder
• Message drafts → messages/ in campaign folder
• JD analysis → target_roles/

2. Execute → see Campaign Execution below

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Campaign Execution

Detailed guide for setting up and running a batch outreach campaign.

When to Create a Campaign

A campaign is created when a hypothesis moves from "defined" to "executing". Every campaign belongs to a hypothesis.

One hypothesis can have one campaign (typical) or eventually none (if hypothesis is paused before execution starts).

Campaign Setup (Step by Step)

Step 1: Create folder structure

applications/my_data/campaign_[name]/
├── outreach_plan.md
├── cold_outreach_templates.md
├── cv_sent.md
└── messages/

Folder name uses slug + month: campaign_cold_outreach_may2026, campaign_scaling_europe_jun2026.

Step 2: Outreach Plan

outreach_plan.md is the strategic document for this campaign.

Structure:

# Outreach Plan: [Campaign Name]

## Hypothesis
Link to hypothesis.md

## Company Source
Where the list came from (URL, LinkedIn post, job board)

## Tracks
### Track A: Formal Applications
Companies with open JDs that match a defined role.

### Track B: Cold Outreach
Companies where we pitch without an open role.

## Companies by Priority
### Priority 1 (send first)
* Company A — [cluster] — [reason]
* Company B — [cluster] — [reason]

### Priority 2
...

### Do Not Send
* Company X — reason (already applied, no fit, etc.)

Step 3: Cluster Companies

Group companies by domain/industry for template targeting.

Clustering rules:

• Group by what the company does (EdTech, FinTech, HealthTech, Enterprise SaaS, DevTools, etc.)
• Minimum 2 companies per cluster — singletons join the nearest cluster or get a generic template
• Clusters inform template tone and hook (EdTech → education language, FinTech → compliance language)
• One company can belong to only one cluster (pick the primary domain)

Example clusters:

• EdTech / Future of Work: Labster, Bloomtech, Preply
• FinTech / Payments: Rapyd, MoonPay, dLocal
• HealthTech: 9amHealth, Enzo Health, Dandelion Health
• Enterprise / Ops: gaiia, Vori, Nova Intelligence

Step 4: Assign Tracks and Priorities

Track A — Formal Applications:

• Company has an open JD that matches a defined role
• Apply through ATS or official channel
• Use the CV from target_roles/role_[type]/cv.md
• Create app_[company]_[date]/ for each

Track B — Cold Outreach:

• No open JD, or JD doesn't match existing roles
• Cold message to founder/CEO/hiring manager
• Use the campaign CV snapshot
• Message goes to messages/[company].md

Priority assignment:

1. Priority 1 — strongest fit, best signal → send first
2. Priority 2-3 — good fit, less signal
3. Priority 4-5 — stretch fit, experimental
4. Do Not Send — bad fit, already applied, conflicting info

Step 5: Write Message Templates

cold_outreach_templates.md contains templates per cluster.

Template structure:

### Cluster: [Name]

**Hook angle:** [what connects user to this domain]

---

**Subject:** [Short, specific]

Hi [First Name],

[1-2 sentences: why this company caught my eye — specific to their product/stage/market]

[1-2 sentences: what I bring — tied to the hook angle, with one concrete metric]

[1 sentence: soft CTA — "happy to chat" / "would love to share how I..." / "open to a conversation?"]

[Sign-off]

---

Template rules:

• One metric per template — not a CV dump, a conversation starter
• Specific to the company's domain — generic "I'm great" messages get ignored
• Under 120 words — respect the reader's time
• Soft CTA — "happy to chat" not "let's schedule a call"
• No attachment mention — LinkedIn message doesn't need it; if sending by email, attach CV
• Personalized per company — template is a starting point, each message gets a specific hook

Anti-patterns:

• ❌ "I'm writing to express my interest in..." — corporate speak
• ❌ "As a [long title] with [X] years of experience..." — CV on first date
• ❌ "I believe my skills would be a great asset to your team" — filler
• ❌ Same message to 20 companies with only name changed — lazy

Step 6: Snapshot CV

Copy the relevant CV from target_roles/role_[type]/cv.md into campaign/cv_sent.md.

If the campaign uses multiple roles (e.g., one CV for Track A, another for Track B), snapshot both and note which is for which track.

Step 7: Execute — Write and Send Messages

For each company in priority order:

1. Personalize the template — find specific detail about the company (product launch, funding, market, recent news)
2. Write to messages/[company].md — include subject line + body
3. Update outreach_plan.md — change status in the relevant table + update Stats
4. User sends — then confirms for status update

Status Tracking in outreach_plan.md

The outreach plan is the single source of truth for campaign status. It includes:

Stats section (at the top, after hypothesis):

## Stats
* **Sent:** N (Track B) + N (Track A formal)
* **Replied:** N
* **Reply rate:** X%
* **Interviews:** N

Status codes in tables:

Status	Meaning
⬜ Ready	Identified, not sent yet
✅ Sent / Applied	Message or application sent
✅ Replied	Positive response received
❌ Rejected	Rejection received
➡️ → Formal app	Cold outreach led to formal application
🚫 Do not send	Decided not to reach out
💬 Conversation	Ongoing conversation

Tracking Results in applications_index.md

Campaign activity also appears in applications/my_data/applications_index.md:

• Cold outreach messages count in Pipeline → Sent
• Replies count in Pipeline → Replied
• Channel: "Cold outreach"
• Individual entries for each company in the "All Applications" section

Why two places: outreach_plan.md is for campaign-level tracking (all companies in one view). applications_index.md is for overall job search tracking (all channels, all roles, conversion funnel). When updating status, always update both.

Formal Applications Within a Campaign

When cold outreach leads to a formal application:

1. Create applications/my_data/app_[company]_[date]/ with frozen CV + CL
2. Update outreach_plan.md — change status to ➡️ → Formal app + update Stats
3. Update applications_index.md — add entry with channel "Cold outreach → Formal"
4. The campaign folder tracks the cold message; the app folder tracks the formal application

One hypothesis can use multiple roles. Example: cold outreach uses "Founding Product & Ops Lead" CV, but a formal application to the same company might use "Customer Success Manager" CV.

3. Validate

When enough data is collected:

1. Compare results vs success criteria
2. Identify patterns (which clusters responded? which didn't?)
3. Document lessons in hypothesis.md (Validation section)
4. Update hypotheses_index.md with status change

4. Decide

Based on validation:

• Continue — hypothesis is working, keep going
• Pivot — partial signal, adjust positioning or company selection
• Stop — hypothesis invalidated, archive it

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hypotheses_index.md Format

# Hypotheses Index

***

## Status Overview

| Status         | Count | Hypotheses |
| -------------- | ----- | ---------- |
| 🔬 In progress | N     | Name       |
| 📋 Queued      | N     | —          |
| ✅ Validated    | N     | —          |
| ❌ Invalidated  | N     | —          |
| ⏸ Paused       | N     | —          |

***

## Hypotheses

### 1. [Hypothesis Name]

* **Status:** 🔬 In progress
* **Hypothesis:** One-sentence summary
* **Positioning:** Role title
* **Source:** Where companies came from
* **Started:** YYYY-MM-DD
* **Completed:** —
* **Folder:** `[slug]/`
* **Campaign:** `applications/my_data/campaign_[name]/`

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hypothesis.md Format

# [Hypothesis Name]

## What We're Testing
[Strategy description]

## Execution Plan
### Track A: Formal Applications
### Track B: Cold Outreach
* **Templates:** `applications/my_data/campaign_[name]/cold_outreach_templates.md`
* **Messages sent:** `applications/my_data/campaign_[name]/messages/`

### Company Clusters
[Groupings by domain]

**Detailed plan + status tracking:** `applications/my_data/campaign_[name]/outreach_plan.md`

***

## Success Criteria
| Metric | Target | Actual |
|--------|--------|--------|
| Response rate | X% | — |
| Interviews | Y | — |

***

## Related Roles
- `target_roles/my_data/role_[type]/` — [role description]

***

## Validation
[Fill when hypothesis concludes]

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Integration With Other Skills

• job-analysis: Creates role folders → hypotheses reference them
• map-skills / generate-cv: Produces CVs → campaigns snapshot them
• applications: Formal apps (app_*/) tracked alongside campaigns (campaign_*/) in the same index
• cover-letters: CLs for formal applications live in app_*/, not in campaigns
• starr-achievements: Source of truth — CV content comes from here

Data flow:

achievements → target_roles (skills_mapping, cv)
              → companies_i_worked (profiles)

hypotheses (strategy) → applications/campaign (execution)
                      → applications/app (formal snapshots)

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📎 External References

External materials for this skill: /references/hypotheses/sources.md