pjm-pfd-estimation-plan

name	pjm-pfd-estimation-plan
description	A workflow that uses pfd-tools to produce a two-point optimistic/pessimistic estimate from the ap.tsv of a bootstrapped project. It derives scenario tables, lints, runs pfdplan, analyzes the critical path, runs an improvement loop, and generates a Mermaid Gantt or Google Sheets Timeline. Triggers when the user says things like "run the estimate", "I want to build a Gantt", "check the critical path", "generate a timeline" (or in Japanese, "見積もりを実行", "Gantt を作りたい", "クリティカルパスを確認", "タイムラインを生成").
allowed-tools	Read, Write, Bash, Glob, Grep, readfile, writefile, terminal, glob, grep

pjm-pfd-estimation-plan

Run the two-point estimate for a project created with pjm-pfd-project-bootstrap. The only file you edit is the master <project>/ap.tsv.

Workflow

• 1. Confirm the working language: ask the user whether to proceed in 日本語 or English. Use the chosen language for all subsequent conversation, explanations, progress reports, and lint / critical-path summaries. (Command names, paths, option flags, column names, and code stay verbatim regardless of the chosen language.)
• 2. Read <project>/answers.md (Bootstrap Answers)
• 3. Enter estimates into the master ap.tsv (Master AP Table)
• 4. (resource_conflicts: disabled only) Deconflict resources (Optional Resource Deconfliction)
• 5. Derive the optimistic/pessimistic scenario tables (Derive Scenario Tables)
• 6. Update the resource tables (when resources change) → lint both scenarios (Project Files And Lint)
• 7. Confirm the start date (Plan Start)
• 8. Generate output (GitHub + Mermaid or Google Sheets Timeline)
• 9. Analyze the critical path and propose improvements (Critical Path Review → Improvement Loop)

Conventions

• At the start, confirm the working language (日本語 / English) with the user, then use it consistently for all conversation, explanations, progress reports, and lint summaries. Keep command names, paths, options, column names, and code verbatim.
• The master <project>/ap.tsv is the human-edited source data and is not passed to pfd-tools. The inputs to pfd-tools (pfdlint / pfdtable / pfdplan / criticalpath) are always the ap_optimistic.tsv / ap_pessimistic.tsv derived with qhs (single Needed Resources column) and project_optimistic.json / project_pessimistic.json.
• The resource tables are per-scenario: r_optimistic.tsv / r_pessimistic.tsv (the resource ID set differs when the optimistic and pessimistic worker counts differ). Generate each table from its corresponding derived table: pfdtable -t r -locale en -p <project>/pfd.drawio.png -ap <project>/ap_optimistic.tsv -cd <project>/cd.tsv > <project>/r_optimistic.tsv (for pessimistic, ap_pessimistic.tsv → r_pessimistic.tsv). Since the output name differs from the input, > is fine.
• The prerequisite is a bootstrapped project. If running directly, verify pfd-tools 5.1.0 or later and qhs (if missing, see Tool Setup in the bootstrap skill).

Bootstrap Answers

Before changing any table, read <project>/answers.md. Bootstrap writes the following:

project: <project>
output_format: github-mermaid        # or google-sheets-timeline
resource_conflicts: enabled          # if disabled, perform Deconfliction
optimistic_worker_count: 2           # filled in when enabled (fine granularity); omitted when disabled
pessimistic_worker_count: 2          # same as above
plan_start_date: 2026-05-20

If answers.md is missing, or resource_conflicts is missing, default to enabled and tell the user. Confirm and update plan_start_date in Plan Start.

Master AP Table

The only file the user edits is <project>/ap.tsv. Do not change values the user has already entered (only blanks get a default at derivation time). Header:

ID	Description	Optimistic Work Volume	Pessimistic Work Volume	Optimistic Rework Volume Ratio	Pessimistic Rework Volume Ratio	Optimistic Needed Resources	Pessimistic Needed Resources	Start Condition	Group	Estimation Basis

Column	Meaning	Default / Notes
Optimistic Work Volume	Work volume when nothing goes wrong (unit: business days)	—
Pessimistic Work Volume	Work volume the owner can responsibly commit to (unit: business days)	—
Optimistic Rework Volume Ratio	Optimistic rework recovery ratio X (0.0–1.0). With work volume V and n rework cycles, the recovered amount is V * X^n	Blank → 0.1 at derivation
Pessimistic Rework Volume Ratio	Pessimistic recovery ratio X (same formula)	Blank → 0.3 at derivation
Optimistic Needed Resources	Optimistic needed resources	Blank → filled with a default at derivation. Fine granularity: optimistic_worker_count workers; coarse granularity: DeptA:1 etc.
Pessimistic Needed Resources	Pessimistic needed resources	Blank → filled with a default at derivation. Fine granularity: pessimistic_worker_count workers; coarse granularity: same value in both columns
Start Condition	Preceding deliverable	Initially blank
Group	Group of the Google Sheets Timeline card	—
Estimation Basis	A short rationale for the estimate	—

If your table's Description column uses a different header name, adjust the qhs query to match the actual header.

Optional Resource Deconfliction

Only when resource_conflicts: disabled, before deriving scenarios, rewrite Optimistic Needed Resources / Pessimistic Needed Resources in the master ap.tsv so each resource occurrence is treated independently. Re-read answers.md right before this (it can change midway).

Rules:

• Rewrite only the two columns Optimistic Needed Resources / Pessimistic Needed Resources. Preserve other cells in a TSV-aware way (a whole-file regex replace is not allowed).
• Preserve ; (OR) and , (AND resource group). Split each assignment only at the first :, and leave the consumed-work-volume text as-is (do not split, round, or normalize it).
• Mechanically append _<process_id> to the resource ID (if it already ends with _<process_id>, do nothing).
• Normalize rewritten cells to the compact syntax (Foo: 1; Bar:0.5 → Foo1:1;Bar1:0.5).

Foo:1        -> Foo_123:1
Foo,Bar:1    -> Foo_123,Bar_123:1
Foo:1;Bar:1  -> Foo_123:1;Bar_123:1
Foo_123:1    -> Foo_123:1

Tell the user the rewritten resource IDs. Then proceed to Derive Scenario Tables → Project Files And Lint, regenerating the resource tables (r_optimistic.tsv / r_pessimistic.tsv) after derivation. When resource_conflicts: enabled, do not change the two columns.

Derive Scenario Tables

AS Optimistic Work Volume / Pessimistic Work Volume to Est. Work Volume, and Optimistic Needed Resources / Pessimistic Needed Resources to Needed Resources. To fill blank rework ratios with defaults (optimistic 0.1 / pessimistic 0.3), use CASE WHEN LENGTH(...) > 0 THEN ... ELSE <default> END (this avoids writing the empty-string literal '' and avoids shell quoting).

Blank Optimistic Needed Resources / Pessimistic Needed Resources get a default at derivation so the Needed Resources column is always non-empty (passing it empty to pfd-tools makes pfdlint error out; filling every cell by hand is a heavy burden, so fill with a plausible default and prompt the user to fix it afterward).

Default value: for fine granularity (enabled), optimistic_worker_count / pessimistic_worker_count workers as WorkerA:1;WorkerB:1;...;WorkerN:1 (1 → WorkerA:1, 2 → WorkerA:1;WorkerB:1; the one after WorkerZ is WorkerAA). For coarse granularity (disabled), DeptA:1. Worker counts are assumed to be at least 1 for both optimistic and pessimistic (a count of 0 would make the default empty). Replace WorkerA:1;WorkerB:1;...;WorkerN:1 / WorkerA:1;WorkerB:1;...;WorkerM:1 in the queries below with this default.

$ qhs -H -O -t -T "SELECT ID, Description, \"Optimistic Work Volume\" AS \"Est. Work Volume\", CASE WHEN LENGTH(\"Optimistic Rework Volume Ratio\") > 0 THEN \"Optimistic Rework Volume Ratio\" ELSE 0.1 END AS \"Est. Rework Volume Ratio\", CASE WHEN LENGTH(\"Optimistic Needed Resources\") > 0 THEN \"Optimistic Needed Resources\" ELSE 'WorkerA:1;WorkerB:1;...;WorkerN:1' END AS \"Needed Resources\", \"Start Condition\", \"Group\", \"Estimation Basis\" FROM \"-\"" < <project>/ap.tsv > <project>/ap_optimistic.tsv
$ qhs -H -O -t -T "SELECT ID, Description, \"Pessimistic Work Volume\" AS \"Est. Work Volume\", CASE WHEN LENGTH(\"Pessimistic Rework Volume Ratio\") > 0 THEN \"Pessimistic Rework Volume Ratio\" ELSE 0.3 END AS \"Est. Rework Volume Ratio\", CASE WHEN LENGTH(\"Pessimistic Needed Resources\") > 0 THEN \"Pessimistic Needed Resources\" ELSE 'WorkerA:1;WorkerB:1;...;WorkerM:1' END AS \"Needed Resources\", \"Start Condition\", \"Group\", \"Estimation Basis\" FROM \"-\"" < <project>/ap.tsv > <project>/ap_pessimistic.tsv

Tell the user about the cells filled with defaults and have them fix as needed.

In PowerShell, replace each line with Get-Content <project>/ap.tsv | qhs -H -O -t -T '<same SQL>' > <out> (the alternative to < <in>).

Project Files And Lint

project_optimistic.json / project_pessimistic.json are already copied by bootstrap from the scaffold (assets/), with atomic_process_table and resource_table pointing to ap_optimistic.tsv + r_optimistic.tsv / ap_pessimistic.tsv + r_pessimistic.tsv respectively (atomic_deliverable_table and composite_deliverable_table are shared by both). Since derivation overwrites the same-named tables, no re-creation is needed.

If you performed Deconfliction or changed resources, regenerate the resource tables (see Conventions) before linting:

$ pfdtable -t r -locale en -p <project>/pfd.drawio.png -ap <project>/ap_optimistic.tsv -cd <project>/cd.tsv > <project>/r_optimistic.tsv
$ pfdtable -t r -locale en -p <project>/pfd.drawio.png -ap <project>/ap_pessimistic.tsv -cd <project>/cd.tsv > <project>/r_pessimistic.tsv
$ pfdlint -f <project>/project_optimistic.json
$ pfdlint -f <project>/project_pessimistic.json

Report the lint results starting from the error / warning counts, listing each issue's severity, target ID, an easy-to-understand explanation of the message, and an improvement suggestion. Do not run pfdplan while errors remain. Keep warnings only if the PjM can explain them.

Plan Start

Read plan_start_date from <project>/answers.md.

• If present: present the existing date and confirm whether to use it as-is or a different date (YYYY-MM-DD). On change, update answers.md.
• If absent (old answers.md): confirm a new entry in YYYY-MM-DD and append it to answers.md.

This date becomes the first task's start date on the Mermaid Gantt / Google Sheets Timeline.

GitHub + Mermaid

When output_format: github-mermaid:

$ pfdplan -f <project>/project_optimistic.json -poor -out-format mermaid -start <yyyy-mm-dd> -start-time 10:00 -duration 8 -not-biz-days <(holidays -locale ja) > <project>/plan_optimistic.mmd
$ pfdplan -f <project>/project_pessimistic.json -poor -out-format mermaid -start <yyyy-mm-dd> -start-time 10:00 -duration 8 -not-biz-days <(holidays -locale ja) > <project>/plan_pessimistic.mmd

<(holidays -locale ja) is Bash process substitution. It is unavailable on Windows / PowerShell / sh, so first generate holidays -locale ja > <project>/holidays_ja.txt and pass -not-biz-days <project>/holidays_ja.txt (the same applies to the pfdplan under Google Sheets Timeline below).

Keep the .mmd as the preview target. Do not create a separate plan.md.

Google Sheets Timeline

When output_format: google-sheets-timeline, generate the timeline and critical-path TSVs:

$ pfdplan -f <project>/project_optimistic.json -poor -out-format google-spreadsheet-tsv -start <yyyy-mm-dd> -start-time 10:00 -duration 8 -not-biz-days <(holidays -locale ja) > <project>/timeline_optimistic.tsv
$ pfdplan -f <project>/project_pessimistic.json -poor -out-format google-spreadsheet-tsv -start <yyyy-mm-dd> -start-time 10:00 -duration 8 -not-biz-days <(holidays -locale ja) > <project>/timeline_pessimistic.tsv
$ criticalpath -f <project>/project_optimistic.json -poor > <project>/criticalpath_optimistic.tsv
$ criticalpath -f <project>/project_pessimistic.json -poor > <project>/criticalpath_pessimistic.tsv

Sheets to create:

Sheet	Content
Optimistic Timeline / Pessimistic Timeline	Timeline view sourced from Optimistic Data / Pessimistic Data
Optimistic Data / Pessimistic Data	Paste timeline_*.tsv and add the Group and Critical Path columns
Optimistic Critical Path Analysis / Pessimistic Critical Path Analysis	Paste criticalpath_*.tsv and add column D Critical Path
Atomic Process Table	Paste ap.tsv (the lookup source for Group)

Change the A–H header of Optimistic Data / Pessimistic Data:

Atomic Process	Completions	Allocated Resources	Description	Start Time	End Time	Start	End

Formulas / conditional formatting / Timeline view settings to add

I1 of Optimistic Data / Pessimistic Data (Group):

={"Group";ARRAYFORMULA(IF(ISBLANK(A2:A),"",VLOOKUP(A2:A,'Atomic Process Table'!A2:J,9,FALSE)))}

D1 of each critical-path analysis sheet:

={"Critical Path";ARRAYFORMULA(IF(ISBLANK(A2:A),"",IF(B2:B<0.0001,TRUE,FALSE)))}

J1 of Optimistic Data / J1 of Pessimistic Data (point each reference at its own analysis sheet):

={"Critical Path";ARRAYFORMULA(IF(ISBLANK(A2:A),"",VLOOKUP(A2:A,'Optimistic Critical Path Analysis'!A2:D,4,FALSE)))}
={"Critical Path";ARRAYFORMULA(IF(ISBLANK(A2:A),"",VLOOKUP(A2:A,'Pessimistic Critical Path Analysis'!A2:D,4,FALSE)))}

Timeline view settings: data range Optimistic Data!A1:J / Pessimistic Data!A1:J, start date Start Time, end date or duration End Time, card title Atomic Process, color Critical Path, details Description, group Group.

Conditional formatting: range A2:J, custom formula =$J2=TRUE, fill light pink.

Critical Path Review

Start improvement consideration from the pessimistic case. If criticalpath_pessimistic.tsv does not exist, generate it (reuse it if already generated in Google Sheets Timeline mode):

$ criticalpath -f <project>/project_pessimistic.json -poor > <project>/criticalpath_pessimistic.tsv

Explain the processes with TOTAL_FLOAT < 0.0001 and the processes whose MINIMUM_ELASTICITY is not -.

Improvement Loop

You can apply one of the following improvements to the critical path. Propose the ones that look applicable from the current critical-path analysis:

1. Parallelize serial processes on the critical path

• Note that successor processes often become speculative because they can no longer use the intermediate deliverable

2. Make the critical path's input deliverable an initial deliverable

• Buy an off-the-shelf one (cost goes up)

3. Shorten the lead time of an atomic process on the critical path

• Efficiency gains such as automation
• Increase consumed work volume by dividing the work among people
• Buy non-dedicated equipment (cost goes up)

4. Add resources

• Add more personnel (cost goes up)
• Buy dedicated equipment (cost goes up)

Then re-derive from Derive Scenario Tables; when resources change, regenerate the resource tables (r_optimistic.tsv / r_pessimistic.tsv) (Conventions), and finally regenerate the lint, plan, and critical-path output.