baygent-skills

Production-grade Bayesian causal inference with PyMC, CausalPy, and DoWhy. Enforces DAG-first thinking, mandatory user checkpoints for assumptions, design-specific refutation, and defensible reporting with causal language guardrails. Trigger on: causal inference, causal effect estimation, treatment effects, counterfactuals, difference-in-differences (DiD), synthetic control, regression discontinuity (RDD), interrupted time series (ITS), instrumental variables (IV), propensity scores, DAGs, causal graphs, confounders, backdoor criterion, do-calculus, interventional distributions, pm.do(), pm.observe(), CausalPy, DoWhy, mediation analysis, refutation, sensitivity analysis, parallel trends, placebo tests, or any question of the form "does X cause Y" or "what is the effect of X on Y."