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M&A playbook — deal thesis, screening, financial/commercial/legal diligence, valuation methods, real-options on deal structure, integration playbook, post-deal KPIs.
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Baseado na classificação ocupacional SOC
| name | mna-playbook |
| description | M&A playbook — deal thesis, screening, financial/commercial/legal diligence, valuation methods, real-options on deal structure, integration playbook, post-deal KPIs. |
| allowed-tools | ["Read","Write","Glob","Grep"] |
Used by mna-cockpit, cso, cfo, clo. Embodies the discipline that prevents value-destroying acquisitions: optimistic synergies, inadequate integration planning, insufficient risk pricing.
## Deal Thesis — [Target]
### Why this target?
- Strategic adjacency (market / capability / tech / customer):
- Why now (timing thesis):
- Why us (capability fit; we can extract value others can't):
### Value-creation hypothesis
- Revenue synergies (specific, quantified):
- Cost synergies (specific, quantified):
- Capability acquisition (talent, IP, technology):
- Strategic optionality unlocked:
### Risks acknowledged up front
- Integration:
- Cultural:
- Customer overlap / cannibalization:
- Regulatory:
- Key-person:
### Walk-away criteria
- Maximum price (per share / EV):
- Maximum leverage post-close:
- Conditions that would cause us to walk:
| Gate | Threshold | Pass / Fail |
|---|---|---|
| Strategic fit (adjacency hypothesis) | Credible | |
| Size fit (EV range) | Board-approved band | |
| Financial health (revenue growth, margin, FCF) | Acceptable | |
| Antitrust / regulatory red flags | None disqualifying | |
| Reputational red flags | None disqualifying | |
| ESG / climate posture | Consistent with transition plan | |
| Strategic capacity to integrate | We are not already over-extended |
| Area | Required artifacts |
|---|---|
| Historicals | 3 yr audited; LTM trailing; QoE adjustments |
| Quality of earnings | Non-recurring items, accounting changes, customer concentration, related-party |
| LTM normalization | Adjust for one-time, working-capital seasonality, stock-comp |
| Working-capital target | Methodology; PEG / non-PEG; what's "normal" |
| Debt-like items | Identified; impact on EV-to-equity bridge |
| Off-balance-sheet | Leases, contingent liabilities, warranties, guarantees |
| Tax | Audits, NOLs, attributes survivable, transfer-pricing exposure |
| Forecast | Re-built bottom-up; key driver assumptions tested |
| Area | Required artifacts |
|---|---|
| Market sizing | TAM/SAM/SOM; growth drivers; cyclical vs structural |
| Customer interviews | NPS, churn, share-of-wallet, willingness-to-pay |
| Competitive position | Share, win/loss, moat assessment |
| Pricing | Realized, list, discount governance, elasticity |
| Sales productivity | Per-rep, ramp time, cycle length |
| Product position | Roadmap credibility, technical debt, AI exposure |
| Type | Estimation method | Realization curve |
|---|---|---|
| Cost — back-office consolidation | Per-FTE × headcount × dis-synergy haircut | yr1: 30% / yr2: 60% / yr3: 90% |
| Cost — facility consolidation | Lease + occupancy savings | yr1: 0% / yr2: 50% / yr3: 100% |
| Cost — procurement | Pooled volume × pricing concession × supplier concentration risk | yr1: 25% / yr2: 75% / yr3: 100% |
| Revenue — cross-sell | (Customers × penetration × ARPU) × probability | yr1: 10% / yr2: 30% / yr3: 60% (cautious) |
| Revenue — bundling / pricing | Customer surplus realizable × conversion rate | yr1: 20% / yr2: 50% / yr3: 80% |
Discount synergies at a higher hurdle than base-business cash flows (e.g., WACC + 3–5%). Revenue synergies require harsher discount than cost.
Coordinate with clo for legal-risk matrix (fatal / remediable / acceptable).
| Method | When | Caveat |
|---|---|---|
| DCF | Almost always | Sensitive to terminal value & WACC |
| Trading comps (EV/EBITDA, EV/Rev) | Public peer set available | Multiples expand/contract; pick cycle-adjusted |
| Precedent transactions | Recent comparable deals | Control premium varies; size matters |
| LBO | Sponsor-comparable; check max LBO price | Reveals leverage capacity, not strategic value |
| Sum-of-the-parts | Multi-segment targets | Allocation assumptions |
| Real-options | Staged structures, contingent consideration | Volatility assumption dominates |
Triangulate 3+ methods. Report the range, not the point.
| Structure | When | Option value |
|---|---|---|
| Earn-out | Synergy realization uncertain; seller confident | Defers risk to seller; reduces upfront price |
| Contingent consideration | Specific milestones (regulatory, customer retention) | Aligns incentives |
| Staged / phased | Big-bet integration; capability acquisition | Real-options value of cancel-at-step |
| Minority + option to acquire | Capability we want to validate first | Pay for the option, exercise on evidence |
| Joint venture | Capability with shared risk; market entry | Reversibility |
chief-communications-officer)chro)ciso)| KPI | Baseline | Target | Actual M3 | M6 | M12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Synergy capture ($M) | |||||
| Customer retention (% of pre-close ARR) | |||||
| Top-100 talent retention | |||||
| Cultural-integration index | |||||
| Systems-integration milestones (% hit) | |||||
| Operating margin (combined) |
M&A artifacts saved to output/mna/. Each deal gets a full dossier; see mna-cockpit.md.
AI governance — EU AI Act Article 9, NIST AI RMF, ISO/IEC 42001 — risk classification, lifecycle gates, model cards, HITL policy, AI incident response.
Crisis response toolkit — classification, trigger thresholds, escalation tiers, war-room activation, rapid liquidity stress, supply-chain alternate-source, holding-statement, AAR.
Adversarial red-team debate protocol — when to use it, the 4-step structure, role-pair recipes, Referee scoring, termination conditions, MAS failure mitigations.
Enterprise risk management — COSO ERM 2017 + ISO 31000 — risk taxonomy, appetite statement, top-risk register, KRIs, Bow-Tie, three-lines-of-defense.
Enterprise executive decision frameworks, memo templates, board protocol, RACI, OKR, escalation rules, dissenting-opinion format.
Deterministic financial tools — WACC, NPV, IRR, payback, EVA, real-options, Monte Carlo, sensitivity, covenant/liquidity checks. The Financial Hardcoding Directive.