prediction-markets

name	prediction-markets
description	Use Polymarket prediction-market data as quantifiable sentiment and event-probability evidence, including market search, market details, liquidity, orderbook, holder previews, and probability history.

agent-finance prediction-markets skill

Use this skill for prediction-market sentiment, event probabilities, or "what capital is pricing in" for a public event.

Commands

agent-finance market polymarket search "spacex ipo" --limit 5
agent-finance market polymarket search "spcex" --limit 5
agent-finance market polymarket market MARKET_ID_OR_SLUG
agent-finance market polymarket market MARKET_ID_OR_SLUG --json

Search Semantics

• Treat Polymarket search as public relevance search. Do not describe it as guaranteed fuzzy search.
• Use multiple query fallbacks for important topics:
  • spacex, space x, starship, ipo
  • nvidia, nvda, product names, regulatory events
• The CLI locally filters and sorts by active/closed state, volume, liquidity, and market signal strength. Still inspect source URLs and raw JSON for important decisions.

Interpretation Rules

• Polymarket prices are implied probabilities backed by user capital.
• They are useful as quantifiable sentiment and event-probability evidence.
• They are not facts, confirmed insider information, legal equity prices, broker-fill prices, or official company disclosures.
• For investment research, pair this signal with primary sources: SEC filings, IR pages, company releases, earnings calls, and verifiable news.

Useful Flags

agent-finance market polymarket search "spacex ipo" --include-closed --min-volume 1000 --json
agent-finance market polymarket market MARKET_ID_OR_SLUG --limit 20 --refresh

• --include-closed: include resolved/closed markets for historical expectation checks.
• --min-volume: ignore thin markets.
• --refresh: bypass local cache.
• --cache-ttl-seconds: tune freshness for repeated agent workflows.
• --json: preserve full structured payloads for downstream reasoning.

Boundaries

• This CLI is read-only for Polymarket.
• It does not accept private keys, derive API keys, place orders, cancel orders, or manage Polymarket positions.
• Holder data is reported as preview rows returned by the API limit, not as a total holder count.