test-assumptions

name	Test Assumptions
description	Extract assumptions from opportunities and solutions, categorize by risk type, identify "leap of faith" assumptions, and design lightweight test cards.
argument-hint	[opportunity-name-or-path]

Identify and Test Assumptions

Extract assumptions, categorize them, prioritize "leap of faith" assumptions, and design lightweight tests.

When to use

• After creating opportunities
• When preparing to generate or downselect solutions
• Whenever a new idea is proposed and you need to surface risks

Input

• Prioritized opportunities
• Early solution sketches
• Interview snapshots and synthesis

Output

• Format: Markdown (.md)
• Location: assumptions/[topic]/
• Filename: assumptions-[opportunity-name]-v[version].md

Key concepts

• Five categories: Desirability, Usability, Feasibility, Viability, Ethical
• Assumption Mapping: 2D grid (Evidence Known x Importance)
• Leap of Faith (LoFA): Maximum 3 assumptions from top-right quadrant (Weak Evidence + More Important)
• Test Cards: Smallest viable simulation with clear success criteria

Process

1. Prepare context and confirm target opportunity
2. Story map candidate ideas
3. Generate assumptions across five categories
4. Run pre-mortem (prospective hindsight)
5. Walk OST lines (Outcome <-> Opportunity <-> Solution)
6. Normalize, deduplicate, and attach evidence
7. Map and prioritize; select maximum 3 LoFA
8. Design test cards for LoFA
9. Run tests, record results, update the map
10. Decide and proceed

For the full process, output structure, and templates, see references/identify-and-test-assumptions.md.

Follow the writing standards in _shared/writing-standards.md for all outputs.