| name | ipo-decision |
| description | Generate an IPO subscription-decision memo (抽選参加判断) for a Japanese pre-listing IPO.
Walks 5 phases — business, fundamentals, supply/demand, risks, verdict — where supply/demand is the protagonist.
Use when (1) the user asks "このIPO参加すべき？", (2) names an upcoming JP IPO / its ticker, (3) pastes a 目論見書 / 有価証券届出書 URL. v1 = JP pre-listing only (US S-1 / just-listed / pre-IPO unlisted are out of scope).
|
| argument-hint | <会社名 or コード or 目論見書URL> [extra context] |
ipo-decision skill
Produces a JP pre-listing IPO subscription-decision memo. Sibling of equity-decision;
for IPOs the analysis centers on supply/demand (需給), not DCF.
⚠️ Not investment advice. Research summary from the 目論見書 and public data. Verify before subscribing.
Scope (v1)
JP pre-listing IPO, subscription decision only. Out of scope: US/S-1, post-listing
(初値後), pre-IPO unlisted/secondary. If asked for those, say so and offer the closest path.
Inputs
| Form | Example | Routing |
|---|
| 会社名 | GO キオクシア | fetch_edinet.py --ipo "<name>" → 届出書 docID |
| 新コード | 581A | use as name hint; confirm filer via --ipo |
| URL | 目論見書/届出書 URL | read it directly; skip the lookup |
Workflow
- Locate the filing:
uv run ../equity-decision/scripts/fetch_edinet.py --ipo "<filerName>"
→ pick the latest 030 (有価証券届出書) and any 040 (訂正). Open the ?type=2 PDF URL to read 業績・公募/売出株数・大株主・手取金の使途. If lookup fails, ask the user for the 目論見書 URL (do not abort).
- Risk/audit text:
uv run ../equity-decision/scripts/fetch_edinet.py --sections <docID> (works on the 届出書 XBRL too).
- Offering terms not in the 届出書 (仮条件/公開価格/吸収額/ロックアップ詳細/OA): source from web with citation; if unavailable, write
数字取得失敗 and request the 目論見書.
- Comps:
uv run ../equity-decision/scripts/fetch_yahoo.py <類似上場コード> for relative valuation of the offer price.
- Read
references/ipo-workflow.md; fill the 5-phase template.
- Apply
references/ipo-supply-demand-rubric.md for the demand level.
- Emit the memo, then the deep-dive menu.
Fail-loud rules
- No hallucinated numbers. Unsourceable →
数字取得失敗.
- 仮条件/公開価格 未確定 → write 未定; recompute once fixed. Never invent the price.
- No predicted initial price. Direction only (公募割れ警戒 / 中立 / プレミアム期待).
- 吸収金額 = (公募+売出+OA)株 × 公開価格上限 — show the formula, never a guessed lump sum.
- Inherit the Yahoo distortion correction from
equity-decision/SKILL.md when using comps (prefer IR actuals over Yahoo operatingIncome; mark adopted vs Yahoo).
Disclaimer
Research summaries, not investment advice. Verify against the 目論見書 before subscribing.
