kalshi-prediction-market

name	kalshi-prediction-market
description	Context and working knowledge for the Kalshi prediction-market domain. Use this skill whenever the user asks about Kalshi markets, tickers, order books, pricing, settlement, or the Kalshi API/WebSocket.
metadata	{"category":"prediction markets","blurb":"A Kalshi domain primer for understanding series, events, markets, Yes/No pricing, settlement, order books, and API or WebSocket data.","keywords":["kalshi","prediction","market"]}
allowed-tools	Read, Grep, Glob

Kalshi Prediction Market

Kalshi is a regulated prediction-market exchange. This skill provides the domain model, trading mechanics, and API conventions you need to reason about Kalshi data and to explain it clearly to users.

Core Mental Model

1. Binary event contracts

   • Every tradable contract is Yes/No on a real‑world outcome.
   • A winning side pays $1, losing side pays $0.
   • Prices between $0.01–$0.99 represent implied probability.

2. Implied probability

   • If a Yes contract trades at $0.74, the market implies ~74% chance of Yes.
   • No price is complementary (roughly 1 − Yes, ignoring fees/spread).

3. Fully collateralized

   • Users pay maximum loss up‑front. No margin/leverage.
   • You can never lose more than you spend on contracts.

Data Hierarchy

Kalshi uses a strict hierarchy:

• Series → template for recurring markets (shared rules/settlement).
• Event → specific instance within a series (a real‑world occurrence).
• Market → single binary contract within an event (one Yes/No outcome).

When you see “market,” clarify whether it means an event page (container) or a specific market outcome (binary leg).

Market Objects: What Fields Mean

When interpreting Kalshi market JSON:

• ticker: unique identifier (string).
• event_ticker / series_ticker: parent identifiers.
• title / subtitle: human‑readable question and clarification.
• yes_bid / yes_ask (cents) and _dollars: best prices to buy/sell Yes.
• no_bid / no_ask: best prices to buy/sell No.
• last_price: last traded Yes price.
• volume / volume_24h / open_interest: activity and outstanding contracts.
• open_time / close_time / expiration_time: lifecycle timestamps.
• status: initialized, active/open, closed, settled.
• result / settlement_value: set after resolution.

Trading Mechanics to Explain

• Order book on both Yes and No sides.
• Quick/market order crosses current spread for immediate fill.
• Limit order rests at a chosen price; may add liquidity.
• Closing a position = taking the opposite side later (sell Yes or buy No).
• Mutually exclusive events contain multiple markets where at most one can settle Yes.

Fees on Kalshi are variable/quadratic, roughly a percent of potential profit; maker orders may be discounted.

Settlement & Resolution

• Each series defines official settlement sources and rules.
• Markets usually close before the strike/decision time, then settle after confirmation.
• Some markets can resolve early if can_close_early is true.

When asked “how does this resolve?”, reference the series rules and settlement source, then restate in plain language.

API Conventions You Should Use

Public data (no auth needed):

• GET /series
• GET /events (events include their markets)
• GET /markets
• GET /market/{ticker}
• GET /market/orderbook
• GET /market/candlesticks
• GET /market/trades
• GET /exchange/status

Trading/account (auth required):

• POST /orders, DELETE /orders/{id}, GET /orders/{id}
• POST /order-groups and related order‑group endpoints
• GET /portfolio/balance, GET /portfolio/positions, GET /portfolio/fills

Auth uses an API key id plus RSA signature headers:

• KALSHI-ACCESS-KEY
• KALSHI-ACCESS-TIMESTAMP
• KALSHI-ACCESS-SIGNATURE

Real‑time updates arrive via WebSocket subscriptions to tickers.

How to Apply This Skill When Answering

1. Identify the exact event or market the user means if they’re vague.
2. Always distinguish Series/Event/Market and restate which level you’re discussing.
3. Convert price to probability explicitly when helpful.
4. Explain both sides (Yes/No) and spreads when discussing pricing or order books.
5. Cite rules + settlement source for resolution questions.
6. Stay neutral: describe mechanics and risks; don’t give financial advice.

Examples

• “This is a Kalshi market ticker — a binary contract paying $1 if Yes. At $0.62, the market implies ~62% Yes probability.”
• “The event is mutually exclusive, so each candidate outcome is a separate market. Exactly one can settle Yes.”
• “To get real‑time prices, subscribe to the market tickers on the Kalshi WebSocket.”

For more detail, see reference.md.