geopolitical-influence

name	geopolitical-influence
description	Use when the user wants to analyze a geopolitical event (conflict, sanction, trade war, election, central bank policy shift) for market impact — mapping the event to affected sectors/assets, directional bias, recommended hedges, and 3 weighted scenarios.

Geopolitical Influence Analyzer

Overview

Analyzes geopolitical events for market impact. Searches current news, maps events to affected sectors and assets, confirms signals with live sentiment and strategy data from the trader CLI, and outputs structured scenarios (base/bull/bear) with probability weights and actionable hedging guidance.

When to Use

• "How does the Russia/Ukraine escalation affect my portfolio?"
• "What's the market impact of the new US-China tariffs?"
• "Fed just signaled rate pause — what sectors benefit?"
• "There's an election in [country] — what moves?"
• "Analyze the oil embargo news for my energy positions"
• Any overnight geopolitical event before market open

Event Categories

Category	Examples	Primary Asset Impact
Armed conflict / escalation	Regional wars, airstrikes	Oil, defense (LMT/RTX/NOC), gold, airlines
Sanctions / trade restrictions	Export controls, embargoes	Semiconductors, agricultural commodities
Trade war / tariffs	US-China duties, Section 301	Industrials, consumer discretionary, logistics
Election / regime change	Major economy elections	Domestic equities, currency, sovereign bonds
Central bank policy shift	Rate hike/cut surprise, QE/QT	Rates-sensitive sectors, financials, growth stocks
Energy supply shock	OPEC cut, pipeline disruption	XLE, XOP, airlines, chemicals, transportation
Pandemic / health emergency	Outbreak, travel restrictions	Healthcare, pharma, travel & leisure
Cyber / infrastructure attack	Grid, financial system targets	Cybersecurity (CRWD/PANW), utilities

CLI Integration

# News sentiment on directly affected tickers
uv run trader news sentiment TICKER --lookback 48h

# Latest news headlines for affected tickers
uv run trader news latest --tickers TICKER1,TICKER2 --limit 15

# Strategy signals with news overlay on affected basket
uv run trader strategies signals --tickers AFFECTED_TICKERS --strategy rsi --with-news

# Check current positions for exposure
uv run trader positions list

# Quote affected tickers for current price context
uv run trader quotes get TICKER1 TICKER2 TICKER3

Workflow

Step 1 — Event Identification and Classification

Gather the geopolitical event details:

• What: Specific event description
• Where: Geography (country/region)
• Who: Key actors (governments, central banks, corporations)
• When: Timeline (announced, ongoing, expected resolution)
• Category: Use the Event Categories table above

Use web search to pull current headlines, official statements, and analyst reactions. Search for:

• "[event keyword] market impact site:reuters.com OR site:bloomberg.com"
• "[event keyword] sector ETF"
• "[commodity/currency] [event keyword] outlook"

Step 2 — Sector and Asset Mapping

Map the event to directly and indirectly affected sectors:

Direct impact — sectors/assets with an obvious first-order link:

Event Type	Long bias	Short bias
Oil supply disruption	XLE, XOP, CVX, XOM	Airlines (AAL/DAL/UAL), chemicals
US-China trade tension	Defense (ITA), domestic mfg	Semiconductors (SOXX), Apple supply chain
Rate hike surprise	Financials (XLF), short-duration	Utilities (XLU), REITs (VNQ), growth (QQQ)
Armed conflict (Europe)	Defense, gold (GLD), oil	European equities, tourism
Dollar strengthening	Gold shorts, EM debt caution	Commodities priced in USD
Sanctions on tech exports	Domestic semis (INTC/TXN)	NVDA China exposure, ASML

Indirect / second-order impact — derive from supply chain, currency, consumer confidence effects.

Step 3 — Confirm with Live CLI Data

For the top 5-8 most affected tickers, run:

# Latest news to confirm the event is being priced in
uv run trader news latest --tickers XLE,CVX,XOM,AAL,DAL --limit 10

# Sentiment score to gauge market reaction
uv run trader news sentiment XLE --lookback 48h
uv run trader news sentiment AAL --lookback 48h

# RSI signals to spot oversold/overbought reactions
uv run trader strategies signals --tickers XLE,CVX,AAL,DAL --strategy rsi --with-news

Parse the CLI output:

• Sentiment > 0.3 + RSI < 40 → strong bullish setup (oversold with positive catalyst)
• Sentiment < -0.3 + RSI > 60 → strong bearish setup (overbought with negative catalyst)
• Divergence between sentiment and RSI → wait for confirmation

Step 4 — Check Portfolio Exposure

uv run trader positions list

Identify which current holdings overlap with the affected sectors. Flag:

• Direct exposure — position in an affected ticker
• Sector exposure — position in an ETF covering the affected sector
• Indirect exposure — position in companies with significant revenue from the affected region

Step 5 — Build Three Scenarios

For each scenario, assign a probability (Base + Bull + Bear = 100%):

Base Case (most likely, 50-60%)

• Event resolves along consensus expectations
• Affected sectors reprice moderately then stabilize
• Describe: duration, magnitude of move, key triggers to watch

Bull Case (upside, 20-30%)

• Event resolves faster or better than expected (ceasefire, deal, policy reversal)
• Describe: specific positive catalyst, sectors that outperform, magnitude

Bear Case (downside, 15-25%)

• Event escalates or broadens (widening conflict, retaliatory sanctions, contagion)
• Describe: specific escalation trigger, sectors that underperform, magnitude, tail risk

Step 6 — Recommended Hedges

Based on event type and portfolio exposure, suggest hedges:

Situation	Hedge Instrument	CLI Command
Equity downside	Put on SPY or QQQ	trader orders buy SPY 1 --contract-type option --right put --expiry ... --strike ...
Energy spike risk	Long XLE calls	trader orders buy XLE 1 --contract-type option --right call --expiry ...
Safe haven flight	Long GLD	trader orders buy GLD 50
Portfolio short	Trailing stop on vulnerable positions	trader orders trailing-stop TICKER --trail-percent 3.0

Only recommend hedges proportional to the event severity rating.

Step 7 — Output Report

GEOPOLITICAL INFLUENCE ANALYSIS
Event: [Event Name]
Date:  {date}
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

EVENT SUMMARY
  Category:   [e.g. Armed Conflict / Energy Supply Shock]
  Severity:   High | Medium | Low
  Geography:  [Region]
  Status:     Developing | Contained | Resolving

SEVERITY RATING
  High   = Systemic risk, broad market impact, VIX likely spikes >25
  Medium = Sector-specific, 1-3 weeks of elevated volatility
  Low    = Limited to single asset class, market likely shrugs within days

AFFECTED SECTORS & DIRECTIONAL BIAS
  ↑ XLE (Energy)      — Oil supply disruption → price spike → producers benefit
  ↑ GLD (Gold)        — Flight to safety
  ↓ AAL/DAL/UAL       — Fuel cost spike, potential route disruptions
  ↓ SOXX (Semis)      — Export restriction risk

LIVE SIGNAL CONFIRMATION
  XLE:  Sentiment +0.62, RSI 38 → Bullish setup (oversold + positive catalyst)
  AAL:  Sentiment -0.51, RSI 64 → Bearish setup (overbought + negative catalyst)

PORTFOLIO EXPOSURE
  Direct:   [list overlapping positions]
  Indirect: [list sector/geographic overlaps]

SCENARIOS
  Base (55%): [Description, expected moves, timeline]
  Bull (25%): [Catalyst, outperformers, magnitude]
  Bear (20%): [Escalation trigger, downside, tail risk]

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
  1. [Immediate hedge if severity=High]
  2. [Trim or protect vulnerable positions]
  3. [Opportunistic long in benefiting sector]

COMMANDS TO EXECUTE
  # Paste-ready CLI commands with specific parameters

Quick Reference

Goal	Command
Sector sentiment scan	uv run trader news sentiment XLE --lookback 48h
Affected tickers news	uv run trader news latest --tickers T1,T2 --limit 15
Signal confirmation	uv run trader strategies signals --tickers T1,T2 --strategy rsi --with-news
Portfolio exposure	uv run trader positions list
Protect position	uv run trader orders trailing-stop TICKER --trail-percent 3.0
Safe haven buy	uv run trader orders buy GLD 50

Common Mistakes

• Overcalling severity — not every geopolitical headline is High severity. Use the VIX proxy (>25 = High, 18-25 = Medium, <18 = Low) as a calibration check.
• Ignoring second-order effects — a conflict's biggest market impact is often indirect (e.g. Europe energy crisis → USD strength → EM pressure).
• Skipping CLI confirmation — always run sentiment + RSI signals before committing to a trade thesis. News may already be priced in.
• Probability math — Base + Bull + Bear must equal exactly 100%.
• Wrong lookback for sentiment — use --lookback 48h for breaking news, --lookback 7d for slower-developing situations.
• Acting without checking positions — always run positions list first to know your existing exposure before recommending new trades.