partial-profit-taking

name	partial-profit-taking
description	Design and test partial-exit schedules against a single-exit baseline. Use when calculating weighted R outcomes, residual risk, target/stop order mechanics, fees, and partial-fill behavior.
license	Apache-2.0
metadata	{"author":"ske-labs","version":"4.0"}

Partial Profit Taking

Scaling out changes the payoff distribution. It can reduce variance and regret, but may lower expectancy and adds orders, fees, and partial-fill risk. Select it only against an identical-signal single-exit baseline.

Scaling Strategies

1. Fixed Thirds

• 1/3 at Target 1, 1/3 at Target 2, 1/3 runner (trailing stop)

2. Half-and-Half

• 50% at Target 1, 50% runner (trailing stop)

3. Pyramiding Out

• 25% at 1R, 25% at 2R, 25% at 3R, 25% runner

4. Single Exit Baseline

• Exit the full position using one predeclared target, time stop, or trailing rule. Treat it as the baseline, not a conviction choice.

Target Setting

Exit	Level
Target 1..n	Predeclared structural, time, or R-multiple exits
Runner	Precisely defined trailing or time exit

Weights must sum to the executable quantity after lot-size rounding. Compute net R for every branch, including fees/slippage; taking 1R on part of a position does not "cover risk" on the remainder automatically.

Stop Management After Partials

After each partial exit:

1. Recalculate remaining quantity, open risk, and portfolio risk after each fill.
2. Move the stop only according to the pretested schedule; breakeven is not risk-free after gaps, spread, and fees.
3. Handle rejected/partial target orders, stop quantity replacement, and overfill/race conditions explicitly.

Workflow

Example -- Long entry at $100, stop at $95 (risk $5):

Assume 99 shares to make exact thirds and ignore costs only for this arithmetic example:

Action	Price	Shares exited	Realized profit
Exit first third	$105	33	$165
Exit second third	$110	33	$330
Runner stopped	$108	33	$264
Total	--	99	$759 = 1.53R

Initial risk was 99 × $5 = $495. Real implementation must subtract costs and model stop slippage.

Tradeoffs

Pros: Reduces psychological pressure, locks in partial profit, allows runners without stress.

Cons: Reduces total profit if the move continues, more complex execution, must pre-plan levels.

Evidence and Validation

• Treat the setup as a testable hypothesis, not a prediction. Define thresholds, entry, invalidation, and exit before evaluating outcomes.
• Calibrate on the same instrument, venue, session, and timeframe. Use closed candles and a held-out or walk-forward sample; record every variant tried.
• Include spread, fees, slippage, borrow or funding, partial fills, and latency. Reject the setup when net expectancy is not positive or depends on one narrow parameter.
• Return observed inputs, missing data, cost assumptions, entry, invalidation, exit, and a valid, watch, or no-trade status.
• Research basis: Partial exits change the payoff distribution; compare them with a single-exit baseline on identical signals. Backtest-overfitting research explains why choosing the best scale-out schedule after many trials creates false discoveries.

Key Rules

• NEVER decide scale-out levels during a trade -- pre-define them before entry
• Do not change stops merely because a partial filled; follow the tested schedule.
• Choose limit versus marketable orders from the fill/price tradeoff; limits are not guaranteed.
• Define runner exit, time limit, and stop quantity before entry.
• Compare net expectancy, drawdown, tail loss, turnover, and capacity with a single-exit baseline.

Related Skills

• trailing-stop -- manages the runner position after partial exits
• risk-reward-ratio -- partial targets are set at R:R milestones (1R, 2R, 3R)