risk-reward-ratio

name	risk-reward-ratio
description	Calculate long/short planned R-multiples and net expectancy. Use when evaluating executable entry, stop, target, win/loss distribution, costs, gaps, and uncertainty without treating R:R as trade quality by itself.
license	Apache-2.0
metadata	{"author":"ske-labs","version":"4.0"}

Risk-Reward Ratio (R:R)

R:R compares potential profit to potential loss, helping filter high-quality trades.

Calculation

For a long: R:R = (Target - Entry) / (Entry - Stop). For a short: R:R = (Entry - Target) / (Stop - Entry). Require positive denominators and use executable prices plus expected slippage/fees.

Example: Entry $100, Stop $95, Target $115 => R:R = $15 / $5 = 3:1.

The zero-cost binary breakeven R:R is (1 - Win Rate) / Win Rate. Actual breakeven is higher after costs, gaps, partial fills, and non-binary exits.

Win Rate	Minimum R:R	Breakeven R:R
40%	1.5:1	1.5:1
50%	1:1	1:1
60%	0.7:1	0.67:1
70%	0.5:1	0.43:1

Expectancy

Use realized net payoff distributions: E = p × average_win - (1-p) × average_loss - average_costs. Report uncertainty, tail loss, sample period, and regime stability. Planned R:R alone does not establish win probability or trade quality.

Optimizing R:R

Improve Entry: Enter at better levels (OTE, pullbacks), wait for confirmation at S/R, use limit orders at key levels.

Define Stop: use thesis invalidation plus a validated tick/volatility buffer, then size from the resulting risk.

Define Target: use observable structure, time exit, or a tested rule; moving a target farther away improves displayed R:R but can reduce hit probability.

Filter on conservative net expectancy, tail risk, liquidity, and mandate fit. Do not label a trade good or excellent from its planned R:R.

Workflow

1. Identify entry from technical analysis
2. Set stop loss based on structure or ATR (see stop-loss-strategies)
3. Calculate R:R using the formula above
4. Filter -- require positive conservative net expectancy and mandate compliance
5. Set targets at R:R milestones (1R, 2R, 3R) for partial exits

Evidence and Validation

• Treat the setup as a testable hypothesis, not a prediction. Define thresholds, entry, invalidation, and exit before evaluating outcomes.
• Calibrate on the same instrument, venue, session, and timeframe. Use closed candles and a held-out or walk-forward sample; record every variant tried.
• Include spread, fees, slippage, borrow or funding, partial fills, and latency. Reject the setup when net expectancy is not positive or depends on one narrow parameter.
• Return observed inputs, missing data, cost assumptions, entry, invalidation, exit, and a valid, watch, or no-trade status.
• Research basis: R-multiples describe a planned payoff but do not establish expectancy. Include win probability, costs, gaps, and partial fills; FINRA notes that trading costs persist even with zero commissions.

Key Rules

• Evaluate win probability and payoff jointly; neither high R:R nor high win rate is sufficient.
• Use executable, predeclared targets and stops rather than decorative ratios.
• Avoid selection bias from waiting only for entries that make the displayed ratio attractive.
• Return no trade when net expectancy, uncertainty, liquidity, or risk limits fail.

Related Skills

• position-sizing -- R:R determines trade quality; position sizing determines trade quantity
• stop-loss-strategies -- stop placement defines the risk side of the R:R equation