synthesis

name	synthesis
description	Gate 6 - Must-Be-True Conditions, Exit Criteria, risk assessment, recommendation

Gate 6: Synthesis

Purpose: Integrate all findings into a clear recommendation with explicit conditions.

Announce: "Moving to Synthesis Gate - let's integrate our findings."

Entry Criteria

• Contrarian Gate completed
• Pre-mortem analysis documented
• Biases flagged and addressed
• Second-order effects identified

Process

1. Must-Be-True Conditions

Identify assumptions that must hold for the decision to succeed.

Focus on:

• Unknown-Unknowables - Things we cannot verify; we must simply bet on them
• Low-confidence, high-impact assumptions - Where being wrong is costly

For each condition:

• State it explicitly ("We assume X will remain true")
• Assess confidence level (high/medium/low)
• Define the consequence if it fails ("If X fails, then Y happens")

Ask:

• "What must be true about the market for this to work?"
• "What must be true about our capabilities?"
• "What must be true about competitors' responses?"
• "What must be true about timing?"

2. Exit Criteria (Pre-Commitment)

Define tripwires before making the decision - conditions that would trigger reversal or pause.

This counters the sunk-cost fallacy by pre-committing to exit conditions when thinking is clear.

For each tripwire:

• Define the specific metric or condition
• Set the threshold that triggers action
• Specify the action (pause, reverse, escalate)
• Set the review timeline

Ask:

• "At what point would we know this isn't working?"
• "What would make us reverse this decision?"
• "What early warning signs should we watch for?"
• "When should we formally review progress?"

3. Risk Assessment

Consolidate risks from all previous gates.

For each risk:

• Likelihood: High / Medium / Low
• Impact: High / Medium / Low
• Mitigation: What can we do to reduce it?
• Source: Which gate identified this risk?

Calculate overall risk profile:

• Count of high-likelihood + high-impact risks
• Presence of any catastrophic (unrecoverable) risks
• Concentration of risk in single assumptions

Check against risk tolerance:

• Is this level of risk acceptable given the potential reward?
• Does the decision-maker understand the risk profile?

4. Recommendation

Formulate the recommendation based on the complete analysis.

Format:

• RECOMMENDATION: Proceed / Do Not Proceed / Pause for More Information
• CONFIDENCE: High / Medium / Low
• RATIONALE: 2-3 sentences summarizing why
• KEY CONDITIONS: Top 3 Must-Be-True Conditions
• PRIMARY RISKS: Top 3 risks to monitor

The recommendation is the AI's assessment based on the evidence. The human decides.

5. Decision Options

Present the decision-maker with clear options:

Option	Description
Proceed	Accept the recommendation and move forward
Reject	Decline based on analysis - document why
Pause	Need more information before deciding
Revisit	Return to earlier gate for deeper analysis

Each option leads to documentation in the Decision Gate.

Depth by Weight

Aspect	Light	Medium	Complete
Must-Be-True	Top 3 conditions	5-6 conditions	Comprehensive list
Exit criteria	1-2 basic tripwires	3-4 specific tripwires	Detailed with thresholds + dates
Risk assessment	High-level summary	Consolidated risks	Full risk matrix
Recommendation	Brief with rationale	Standard format	Comprehensive with confidence reasoning

Light: Focus on top 3 Must-Be-True conditions. 1-2 basic exit criteria. High-level risk summary. Brief recommendation.

Medium: 5-6 Must-Be-True conditions. 3-4 specific exit criteria with thresholds. Consolidated risk assessment. Standard recommendation format.

Complete: Comprehensive Must-Be-True list. Detailed exit criteria with specific thresholds and review dates. Full risk matrix. Comprehensive recommendation with confidence reasoning.

Upgrade Detection

At Synthesis, upgrade detection focuses on whether the analysis is sufficient:

Suggest upgrading if:

• Cannot formulate clear Must-Be-True conditions (analysis may be incomplete)
• Exit criteria feel arbitrary (need more rigor)
• Risk assessment reveals more high-impact risks than expected
• Recommendation confidence is lower than the decision stakes warrant

Upgrade prompt:

⚠️ Synthesis is difficult because:
- [Cannot clearly articulate what must be true]
- [Risks are higher than we can confidently assess]
- [My recommendation confidence is [Low] for a decision of this magnitude]

This suggests we may benefit from deeper analysis in earlier gates.

Options:
1. Continue at [Weight] - accept higher uncertainty
2. Return to [Gate] for deeper analysis
3. Upgrade remaining gates to [Higher Weight]

Which approach?

Output

Update decision artifact with synthesis:

# Synthesis Gate Summary

## Must-Be-True Conditions

| Condition | Confidence | Consequence if False |
|-----------|------------|---------------------|
| [Condition 1] | [High/Med/Low] | [What happens if wrong] |
| [Condition 2] | [High/Med/Low] | [What happens if wrong] |
| [Condition 3] | [High/Med/Low] | [What happens if wrong] |

## Exit Criteria

| Tripwire | Threshold | Action | Review Date |
|----------|-----------|--------|-------------|
| [Metric 1] | [Value] | [Pause/Reverse/Escalate] | [Date] |
| [Metric 2] | [Value] | [Pause/Reverse/Escalate] | [Date] |

## Risk Assessment

| Risk | Likelihood | Impact | Mitigation | Source Gate |
|------|------------|--------|------------|-------------|
| [Risk 1] | [H/M/L] | [H/M/L] | [Action] | [Gate name] |
| [Risk 2] | [H/M/L] | [H/M/L] | [Action] | [Gate name] |
| [Risk 3] | [H/M/L] | [H/M/L] | [Action] | [Gate name] |

### Overall Risk Profile

- **High-Impact Risks**: [count]
- **Catastrophic Risks**: [Yes/No - describe if yes]
- **Risk Concentration**: [Where risk clusters]
- **Risk Tolerance Match**: [Within/Exceeds tolerance]

## Recommendation

**RECOMMENDATION:** [Proceed / Do Not Proceed / Pause]

**CONFIDENCE:** [High / Medium / Low]

**RATIONALE:** [2-3 sentence summary of why this recommendation]

**KEY CONDITIONS:**
1. [Must-Be-True Condition 1]
2. [Must-Be-True Condition 2]
3. [Must-Be-True Condition 3]

**PRIMARY RISKS:**
1. [Risk 1]
2. [Risk 2]
3. [Risk 3]

Save to: docs/decisions/YYYY-MM-DD-<decision-slug>/decision.md (update existing)

Exit Criteria

• Must-Be-True Conditions explicitly stated (depth per weight)
• Exit Criteria defined with specific tripwires (depth per weight)
• Risk assessment consolidated from all gates (depth per weight)
• Clear recommendation formulated
• Decision options presented to human

Bias Watch

Watch for:

• Overconfidence - Recommendation confidence too high given uncertainties
• Optimism bias - Downplaying risks in synthesis
• Narrative fallacy - Creating a coherent story that glosses over contradictions
• Loss aversion - Recommending against good options due to potential losses

Next Gate

Proceed to: deliberate-decisions:decision-capture