| name | forecast-scenarios |
| description | Model best-case, worst-case, and likely revenue scenarios with sensitivity analysis for strategic planning. Use when: building financial forecasts; presenting board scenarios; planning headcount around revenue uncertainty; modeling pricing changes impact; preparing investor updates with upside/downside ranges |
| license | MIT |
| metadata | {"author":"ClawFu","version":"1.0.0","mcp-server":"@clawfu/mcp-skills"} |
Forecast Scenario Modeling
Create multiple revenue scenarios with variable assumptions to support strategic planning, board presentations, and risk management.
When to Use This Skill
- Annual and quarterly planning
- Board meeting preparations
- Fundraising projections
- Risk assessment and contingency planning
- Evaluating strategic initiatives
Methodology Foundation
Based on McKinsey Scenario Planning and FP&A best practices, combining:
- Base/Bull/Bear case modeling
- Sensitivity analysis (variable impact)
- Monte Carlo probability distributions
- Driver-based forecasting
What Claude Does vs What You Decide
| Claude Does | You Decide |
|---|
| Structures scenario framework | Assumption values |
| Calculates scenario outcomes | Which scenario to plan for |
| Identifies key sensitivities | Risk tolerance levels |
| Models variable impacts | Strategic responses |
| Presents range of outcomes | Final forecast commitment |
What This Skill Does
- Scenario definition - Base, upside, downside cases
- Variable modeling - Test impact of changing assumptions
- Sensitivity analysis - Which variables matter most
- Probability weighting - Expected value calculations
- Action planning - What to do in each scenario
How to Use
Model revenue scenarios for [Period]:
Current Status:
- YTD Revenue: $X
- Current Pipeline: $X
- Run Rate: $X/month
Key Variables to Model:
- Win rate: [Current: X%, Range: X-X%]
- Average deal size: [Current: $X, Range: $X-$X]
- Sales cycle: [Current: X days, Range: X-X]
- New pipeline creation: [Current: $X/month]
- Churn rate: [Current: X%]
Create best, likely, and worst case scenarios.
Instructions
Step 1: Define Scenario Framework
| Scenario | Definition | Probability |
|---|
| Best Case (Bull) | Everything goes right | 15-20% |
| Likely Case (Base) | Realistic expectations | 50-60% |
| Worst Case (Bear) | Major headwinds | 20-25% |
Step 2: Identify Key Drivers
Rank variables by revenue impact:
| Driver | Impact | Controllability |
|---|
| Win rate | High | Medium |
| Pipeline volume | High | High |
| Deal size | Medium | Low |
| Sales cycle | Medium | Medium |
| Churn rate | Medium | Medium |
| Pricing | Low | High |
Step 3: Set Variable Ranges
For each driver, define realistic bounds:
Win Rate:
- Best: 35% (team is hitting stride)
- Likely: 25% (current performance)
- Worst: 18% (market headwinds)
Pipeline:
- Best: $5M (strong marketing)
- Likely: $4M (normal cadence)
- Worst: $2.5M (budget cuts)
Step 4: Calculate Scenarios
Revenue Formula (simplified):
Quarterly Revenue =
(Pipeline × Win Rate) +
(Expansion Revenue) -
(Churn)
Apply to each scenario:
Best Case:
$5M × 35% = $1.75M new + $200K expansion - $50K churn
= $1.9M
Likely Case:
$4M × 25% = $1M new + $150K expansion - $80K churn
= $1.07M
Worst Case:
$2.5M × 18% = $450K new + $100K expansion - $120K churn
= $430K
Step 5: Sensitivity Analysis
Test: "What if X changes by 10%?"
| Variable | +10% Impact | -10% Impact | Sensitivity |
|---|
| Win Rate | +$100K | -$100K | High |
| Pipeline | +$90K | -$90K | High |
| Deal Size | +$50K | -$50K | Medium |
| Churn | -$30K | +$30K | Medium |
Step 6: Calculate Expected Value
Expected Revenue =
(Best × Probability) +
(Likely × Probability) +
(Worst × Probability)
= ($1.9M × 20%) + ($1.07M × 55%) + ($430K × 25%)
= $380K + $589K + $108K
= $1.077M
Examples
Example 1: Quarterly Forecast Scenarios
Input:
Model Q2 scenarios:
Current Status:
- Q1 Revenue: $850K
- Q2 Pipeline: $4.2M
- Monthly run rate: $280K
Variables:
- Win rate: Current 24%, Range 18-32%
- Avg deal: Current $45K, Range $38K-$55K
- New monthly pipeline: Current $800K, Range $500K-$1.2M
- Monthly churn: Current $25K, Range $15K-$40K
- Expansion: Current $50K/month, Range $30K-$80K
Output:
## Q2 Revenue Scenario Model
### Scenario Definitions
| Scenario | Probability | Description |
|----------|-------------|-------------|
| 🐂 Bull | 20% | Strong execution, market tailwinds |
| 📊 Base | 55% | Continue current trajectory |
| 🐻 Bear | 25% | Market slowdown, execution challenges |
### Variable Assumptions
| Variable | Bear | Base | Bull |
|----------|------|------|------|
| Starting Pipeline | $4.2M | $4.2M | $4.2M |
| Win Rate | 18% | 24% | 32% |
| Avg Deal Size | $38K | $45K | $55K |
| New Pipeline/mo | $500K | $800K | $1.2M |
| Monthly Churn | $40K | $25K | $15K |
| Expansion/mo | $30K | $50K | $80K |
### Q2 Revenue Calculations
#### 🐂 Bull Case: $1.42M
Starting Pipeline Revenue:
$4.2M × 32% = $1.34M
Adjustment for deal size:
$1.34M × ($55K/$45K) = $1.64M effective
New Pipeline Added (Q2):
$1.2M × 3 months × 32% × 50% (partial close) = $576K
Expansion:
$80K × 3 = $240K
Churn:
-$15K × 3 = -$45K
Total Bull: $1.64M (existing) + $576K (new) + $240K (exp) - $45K (churn)
Weighted at Q2 stage: $1.42M
#### 📊 Base Case: $980K
Starting Pipeline Revenue:
$4.2M × 24% = $1.01M
New Pipeline (partial close):
$800K × 3 × 24% × 50% = $288K
Expansion: $150K
Churn: -$75K
Total Base: $1.01M × 0.9 (timing) + $150K - $75K
= $980K
#### 🐻 Bear Case: $580K
Starting Pipeline Revenue:
$4.2M × 18% = $756K × 0.85 (pushed deals)
= $643K
New Pipeline: $500K × 3 × 18% × 40% = $108K
Expansion: $90K
Churn: -$120K
Total Bear: $580K
### Scenario Summary
| Scenario | Revenue | vs Q1 | Growth |
|----------|---------|-------|--------|
| 🐂 Bull | $1.42M | +$570K | +67% |
| 📊 Base | $980K | +$130K | +15% |
| 🐻 Bear | $580K | -$270K | -32% |
### Expected Value
E(Revenue) = ($1.42M × 0.20) + ($980K × 0.55) + ($580K × 0.25)
= $284K + $539K + $145K
= $968K
**Recommended Forecast: $950K - $1.0M**
### Sensitivity Analysis
| If This Changes... | Revenue Impact |
|--------------------|----------------|
| Win rate +5% | +$210K |
| Win rate -5% | -$210K |
| Pipeline +$500K | +$120K |
| Deal size +$5K | +$80K |
| Churn +$10K/mo | -$30K |
**Highest Sensitivity**: Win rate (focus on deal execution)
### Scenario Action Plans
**If Trending Bull:**
- Accelerate hiring plan
- Increase marketing spend
- Prepare for capacity constraints
**If Trending Base:**
- Stay the course
- Focus on execution
- Build pipeline for Q3
**If Trending Bear:**
- Tighten expense controls
- Extend runway calculations
- Double down on existing customers
- Consider discounting to close deals
Example 2: Annual Planning Scenarios
Input:
Model 2026 annual scenarios for board:
2025 Results:
- Revenue: $4.2M
- Customers: 85
- ARR Growth: 45%
- NRR: 110%
2026 Planning Variables:
- New customer target: 40-80 new customers
- ACV range: $40K-$60K
- NRR range: 105%-120%
- Churn range: 5%-12%
Output:
## 2026 Annual Revenue Scenarios
### For Board Review
---
### Scenario Summary
| Metric | Bear | Base | Bull |
|--------|------|------|------|
| New Customers | 40 | 60 | 80 |
| New ACV | $40K | $50K | $60K |
| New ARR | $1.6M | $3.0M | $4.8M |
| NRR | 105% | 112% | 120% |
| Existing Base | $4.41M | $4.70M | $5.04M |
| **Total ARR** | **$6.0M** | **$7.7M** | **$9.8M** |
| **Growth** | **43%** | **83%** | **133%** |
### Detailed Calculations
#### 🐻 Bear Case: $6.0M ARR (+43%)
**Assumptions:**
- Conservative new sales (40 customers)
- Lower ACV ($40K avg)
- NRR dips (105%)
- Higher churn (10%)
Existing Customer Base:
$4.2M × 105% NRR = $4.41M
New Customer Revenue:
40 customers × $40K = $1.6M
Total: $6.0M
**When This Happens:**
- Market downturn
- Sales execution issues
- Product-market fit challenges
- Key competitor gains ground
---
#### 📊 Base Case: $7.7M ARR (+83%)
**Assumptions:**
- Target new sales (60 customers)
- Target ACV ($50K)
- Maintain NRR (112%)
- Normal churn (7%)
Existing Customer Base:
$4.2M × 112% NRR = $4.70M
New Customer Revenue:
60 customers × $50K = $3.0M
Total: $7.7M
**This Is Likely If:**
- Execute at current pace
- Market conditions stable
- Product roadmap delivers
- Team retention healthy
---
#### 🐂 Bull Case: $9.8M ARR (+133%)
**Assumptions:**
- Exceed targets (80 customers)
- Premium ACV ($60K)
- Strong NRR (120%)
- Low churn (5%)
Existing Customer Base:
$4.2M × 120% NRR = $5.04M
New Customer Revenue:
80 customers × $60K = $4.8M
Total: $9.8M
**Required For This:**
- Strong product releases
- Successful enterprise push
- Favorable market timing
- Key hires perform
---
### Expected Value & Recommendation
E(ARR) = ($6.0M × 0.20) + ($7.7M × 0.55) + ($9.8M × 0.25)
= $1.2M + $4.24M + $2.45M
= $7.89M
### Board Recommendation
**Target: $7.5M ARR** (+79% growth)
| Metric | Target | Confidence |
|--------|--------|------------|
| New Customers | 55-60 | Medium-High |
| New ARR | $2.75M | Medium |
| NRR | 110%+ | High |
| Total ARR | $7.5M | Medium |
### Key Risks & Mitigations
| Risk | Impact | Mitigation |
|------|--------|------------|
| Sales hiring delays | -$1M | Recruit pipeline now |
| Enterprise deals push | -$800K | Parallel SMB motion |
| Key customer churn | -$500K | CSM investment |
| Competitor pricing | -$600K | Value selling training |
### Monthly Checkpoints
| Month | Bear | Base | Bull |
|-------|------|------|------|
| Q1 End | $4.8M | $5.2M | $5.8M |
| Q2 End | $5.3M | $6.2M | $7.4M |
| Q3 End | $5.6M | $7.0M | $8.6M |
| Q4 End | $6.0M | $7.7M | $9.8M |
Track monthly and adjust Q3 if trending to Bear.
Skill Boundaries
What This Skill Does Well
- Structuring scenario frameworks
- Calculating outcomes from assumptions
- Identifying key sensitivities
- Presenting range of possibilities
What This Skill Cannot Do
- Predict which scenario will occur
- Know your specific business dynamics
- Account for black swan events
- Replace expert judgment on probabilities
When to Escalate to Human
- Setting official targets
- Board/investor commitments
- Major strategic pivots
- Assumptions requiring domain expertise
Iteration Guide
Follow-up Prompts
- "What win rate do we need to hit Base case?"
- "Show me monthly revenue trajectory for each scenario."
- "Add a 'catastrophic' case if we lose our biggest customer."
- "What's the probability-weighted forecast?"
Scenario Planning Cycle
- Set variables and ranges
- Calculate scenarios
- Identify early warning signals
- Define trigger points for action
- Review monthly against actuals
Checklists & Templates
Annual Planning Template
## [Year] Revenue Scenarios
### Scenarios
| Case | Revenue | Growth | Probability |
|------|---------|--------|-------------|
| Bull | | | 20% |
| Base | | | 55% |
| Bear | | | 25% |
### Key Assumptions
| Variable | Bear | Base | Bull |
|----------|------|------|------|
### Sensitivity Analysis
| Variable | Impact per 10% |
|----------|----------------|
### Risk Register
| Risk | Scenario Impact | Mitigation |
|------|-----------------|------------|
References
- McKinsey Scenario Planning Guide
- FP&A Forecasting Best Practices
- SaaS Metrics and Financial Modeling
- CFO.com Revenue Forecasting
Related Skills
pipeline-forecasting - Feed into scenario modelslead-scoring - Input for pipeline assumptionsaccount-health - NRR/churn inputs
Skill Metadata
- Domain: RevOps
- Complexity: Advanced
- Mode: centaur
- Time to Value: 60-90 min for full model
- Prerequisites: Historical data, variable assumptions
