crux-diagnosis

name	crux-diagnosis
description	Identify the pivotal obstacle between current state and desired future. Use when developing strategy.

Strategic Crux Diagnosis

Identify the pivotal obstacle between current state and desired future.

When to Use

When developing strategy or facing complex strategic decisions.

The Concept

Crux: The smallest set of obstacles that, if solved, makes everything else tractable or unnecessary.

Required Inputs

Gather before analysis:

• Current state (baseline metrics, capabilities)
• Desired future (time-bound outcome, targets)
• Constraints (budget, headcount, tech, compliance)
• Available assets (data, channels, IP, partnerships)
• Key risks and non-negotiables

The Process

1. Map Current to Future

Create a causal graph:

• Start: Current state
• End: Desired future
• List all blockers in between

2. Score Each Blocker

Evaluate on:

• Causal centrality: How much else depends on this?
• Bottleneck severity: How much does it slow everything?
• Solvability: Can we actually fix it?
• Leverage potential: If solved, how much unlocks?
• Time to impact: How fast could we see results?
• Evidence strength: How sure are we this is the problem?

3. Identify the Crux

Find the blocker(s) where:

• Solving it unlocks the most downstream progress
• It's actually solvable given constraints
• Time to impact is acceptable

4. Generate Strategic Options

Create 4-7 options aimed at the crux:

• Include at least one non-obvious approach
• Include at least one constraint-relaxation option
• Evaluate against decision criteria

Output

• Executive summary (situation, crux, approach)
• Evidence pack (facts, assumptions, uncertainties)
• Crux definition with scoring
• Options comparison table
• Chosen strategy with rationale
• Strategic moves (3-5) with owners and timelines

When Not to Use

Do not use this skill when the request is unrelated, low-stakes, or better handled by a simpler direct response.