// Systematic checklist to identify and counteract cognitive biases in decision-making. Use before major decisions, when evaluating recommendations, or when stakes are high.
| name | thinking-debiasing |
| description | Systematic checklist to identify and counteract cognitive biases in decision-making. Use before major decisions, when evaluating recommendations, or when stakes are high. |
Based on Daniel Kahneman, Dan Lovallo, and Olivier Sibony's research, this skill provides a systematic checklist to identify cognitive biases that distort decisions. Awareness of biases alone doesn't prevent them—structured checklists and processes do.
Core Principle: Your brain is systematically wrong in predictable ways. Use checklists to catch errors your intuition will miss.
| System 1 (Fast) | System 2 (Slow) |
|---|---|
| Automatic, effortless | Deliberate, effortful |
| Emotional, intuitive | Analytical, logical |
| Pattern-matching | Rule-following |
| Prone to biases | Can catch biases |
| Default mode | Requires activation |
Goal: Activate System 2 for important decisions using structured processes.
Before approving any significant recommendation, evaluate:
1. Is there self-interest at play?
2. Is there emotional attachment (affect heuristic)?
3. Has dissenting opinion been suppressed (groupthink)?
4. Is there appropriate diversity of opinion?
5. Are we over-relying on a single analogy (saliency bias)?
6. Are we anchored on an initial number?
7. Were credible alternatives seriously considered?
8. Are we seeking confirming evidence only?
9. Is the base case realistic?
10. Is the worst case bad enough?
11. Are we discounting sunk costs appropriately?
12. Are we assuming success transfers?
# Decision Quality Audit: [Decision Name]
## Recommendation Summary
[Brief description]
## Bias Checklist
### Self-Interest & Emotion
- [ ] Self-interest checked: [Notes]
- [ ] Emotional attachment assessed: [Notes]
### Group Dynamics
- [ ] Dissent encouraged: [Notes]
- [ ] Independent input gathered: [Notes]
### Pattern Recognition
- [ ] Multiple analogies considered: [Notes]
- [ ] Anchoring effects checked: [Notes]
### Confirmation Bias
- [ ] Alternatives genuinely evaluated: [Notes]
- [ ] Disconfirming evidence sought: [Notes]
### Planning Realism
- [ ] Base case reality-checked: [Notes]
- [ ] Worst case severe enough: [Notes]
- [ ] Sunk costs ignored: [Notes]
### Halo Effects
- [ ] Success transfer questioned: [Notes]
## Red Flags Identified
[List any concerns from checklist]
## Mitigations
[How will identified biases be addressed?]
## Decision
- [ ] Proceed as recommended
- [ ] Proceed with modifications
- [ ] Requires more analysis
- [ ] Reject recommendation
"We can be blind to the obvious, and we are also blind to our blindness."
You cannot debias through willpower alone. Use checklists, processes, and outside perspectives to catch what your intuition misses.
Recognize Senge's Systems Archetypes to diagnose recurring organizational and technical problems, identify why fixes keep failing, and design interventions that address root structure.
Update beliefs systematically based on new evidence using probabilistic reasoning. Use when estimating probabilities, learning from data, or making decisions under uncertainty.
Apply Herbert Simon's Bounded Rationality and satisficing to make good-enough decisions under real-world constraints. Use for design decisions under time pressure, recognizing cognitive limits, and setting appropriate stopping criteria.
Know the boundaries of your expertise and operate within them. Use when evaluating opportunities, making decisions outside your domain, or assessing when to defer to experts.
Classify problems by complexity domain (clear, complicated, complex, chaotic) and match approach to domain. Use for choosing methodologies, problem framing, and process design.
Apply Kahneman's Dual-Process Theory to recognize when to trust intuition vs engage deliberate analysis. Use for high-stakes decisions, error-prone contexts, or when balancing speed vs accuracy.