opportunity-discovery

name	opportunity-discovery
description	Specialist tool that implements the lift_per_effort formula. Surfaces 5-15 ranked opportunities per week. Biases toward 90/10 plays (striking-distance, ctr-rescue, schema-fix, link-injection, cannibalization-consolidation, template-extension, linkable-asset). Used exclusively by Stage 1 Discovery.
metadata	{"family":"ops","owner":"seo","last_reviewed":"2026-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","version":"1.0.0","related_skills":["seo-foundations","marketing-foundations","traffic-monitor","seo-health","indexation-monitor"],"kpis":["Median lift_per_effort of approved briefs > p75 of all candidates","Discovery → Strategy approval rate 30-50% via Slack gate","5-15 candidates surfaced per week"],"marketing_pillar":124,"seo_standard":"B_C","kpi_tier":12,"funnel_stage":"all","content_class":"all","maturity_stage":"predictive","used_by_stages":[1]}

Opportunity Discovery

Implements the lift_per_effort formula from .agents/agents/PIPELINE.md. Surfaces 5-15 ranked opportunities per week with 90/10 filter applied.

When to Use

• Stage 1 Discovery only — exclusive consumer.

Do Not Use When

• Need raw KPI data — use traffic-monitor.
• Need cannibalization detection — use seo-health.
• Need indexation status per pillar — use indexation-monitor.

Inputs

• Cached traffic-monitor output (Tier 1+2 metrics per pillar).
• Cached seo-health output (cannibalization, anchor diversity, schema validity, pSEO uniqueness, intent-mismatch findings).
• Cached indexation-monitor output.
• user-semrush keyword-gap report (monthly).
• Content-class current 4-week mix (from prior weekly reports).

The lift_per_effort Formula

Per .agents/agents/PIPELINE.md:

lift_per_effort = (delta_impressions * delta_CTR * intent_value * confidence) / effort_hours

multiplied by content_class_boost:
  informational: 1.1
  brand: 1.2
  transactional: 1.0

Coefficients live at marketing-foundations/reference/measurement-framework.md.

The 90/10 Class Taxonomy

Every opportunity tagged with one:

• striking_distance — pages ranking 4-15 with impressions ≥100. CTR uplift dominates.
• ctr_rescue — high impressions + CTR <2%.
• schema_fix — already-ranking pages missing rich-result eligibility.
• link_injection — orphans with audience but no incoming links.
• cannibalization_consolidation — 2+ pages ranking for same primary query.
• template_extension — extending an outperforming template.
• linkable_asset — original-research pages.
• other_with_text — requires text justification.

Workflow

1. Pull cached evidence from traffic-monitor, seo-health, indexation-monitor, last semrush keyword-gap.
2. Generate candidate opportunities:
   • For every page ranking 4-15 with impressions ≥100 → striking_distance candidate.
   • For every page with impressions ≥500 + CTR <2% → ctr_rescue candidate.
   • For every page failing schema validity → schema_fix candidate.
   • For every orphan page with GSC impressions ≥100 → link_injection candidate.
   • For every cannibalization finding → cannibalization_consolidation candidate.
   • For every outperforming template (CTR + engagement >p75 of peers) → template_extension candidate.
   • For every backlink-velocity gap (RDs/mo <10) → linkable_asset candidate from data inventory.
3. Score each candidate with lift_per_effort formula.
4. Apply content-class balance filter: reject candidates that worsen the 60/25/15 mix outside the acceptable band (per marketing-foundations/reference/content-class-balance.md).
5. Apply capacity cap: max 15 candidates per week.
6. Rank by lift_per_effort × content_class_boost descending.
7. Compute confidence per candidate (data freshness + sample size + similar-historical-prediction accuracy).
8. Output the ranked opportunity table for Stage 1 Discovery to post as Slack selection gate.

Output Contract

Per opportunity record:

opportunity_id: <slug>-<YYYYMMDD>-<seq>
ninety_ten_class: striking_distance | ctr_rescue | schema_fix | link_injection | cannibalization_consolidation | template_extension | linkable_asset | other_with_text
target_url: <URL>
primary_query: <text>
current_position: <number>
target_position: <number>
current_impressions: <number>
current_ctr: <fraction>
delta_impressions: <number>
delta_ctr: <fraction>
intent: informational | navigational | commercial | transactional
intent_value: <coefficient>
content_class: informational | transactional | brand
content_class_boost: <coefficient>
effort_hours: <number, from baseline>
confidence: <0.0-1.0>
lift_per_effort: <computed>
evidence_links:
  - <gsc-cache path>
  - <ga4-cache path>
  - <semrush-cache path>

Markdown summary in nextjs-app/docs/reports/<date>/01-discovery.md per PIPELINE.md Stage 1 contract.

Capacity Discipline

• Max 15 candidates per week (capacity).
• Discovery → Strategy approval rate target: 30-50% (i.e., 5-7 approved briefs from 15 candidates).
• If lift_per_effort median < p50 of last 4 weeks, surface fewer (don't pad).

References

• .agents/agents/PIPELINE.md — formula + 90/10 taxonomy
• seo-foundations/reference/kpi-cascade.md — Tier 1+2 sourcing
• marketing-foundations/reference/measurement-framework.md — coefficients