alphagbm-buffett-analysis

name	alphagbm-buffett-analysis
description	Warren Buffett-lens scorecard for any ticker. Scores 4 dimensions 0-100 each (business / circle of competence, moat / durable advantage, management / capital allocation, valuation / fair price vs 10Y treasury) and returns a weighted overall HOLDABLE / WATCHABLE / AVOID verdict. This is NOT a generic fundamental screener — it's Buffett's specific framework mechanically applied: sector simplicity, gross margin + ROE + profit margin thresholds, FCF yield vs treasury, and dividend-continuity as management proxy. Triggers: "Buffett analysis AAPL", "score KO with Buffett lens", "would Buffett buy MSFT", "JNJ Buffett scorecard", "AAPL moat analysis", "fair price vs bonds", "Buffett-style verdict on NVDA", "long-term hold analysis"
globs	["mock-data/buffett-analysis/**"]

AlphaGBM Buffett Analysis

The 4 lenses Buffett himself says he applies, computed from yfinance fundamentals and returned as a single-number verdict plus reasoning for each lens.

The 4 Lenses

1. Business (20% weight) — circle of competence. Simple sectors (consumer staples, utilities, industrials) score high. Complex sectors (tech, healthcare, financials) score lower unless mega-cap like AAPL.
2. Moat (30% weight) — durable advantage. Gross margin > 40%, ROE > 20%, profit margin > 15%, and market cap > $100B each contribute to the moat score.
3. Management (15% weight) — capital allocation proxy via dividend continuity
   • payout ratio (15-60% is ideal balance) + 5yr avg div yield.
4. Valuation (35% weight) — fair price check. PE < 15 → +20, PEG < 1 → +15, FCF yield > 10Y treasury + 2pp → +20. PE > 40 or PEG > 2.5 → deductions.

Overall Verdict

• ≥ 75 → HOLDABLE (color green) — meets Buffett standards, long-term hold
• 55-74 → WATCHABLE (color amber) — wait for better price or clearer evidence
• < 55 → AVOID (color red) — fails Buffett's standards

Why This Is a Separate Skill

The generic alphagbm-stock-analysis runs a G=B+M style/momentum score. Buffett's framework is different — it weights moat + valuation much more heavily than momentum, and penalizes complex businesses regardless of growth. This skill codifies Buffett's rules, not AlphaGBM's house rules.

How to Use

Input:

• ticker (required) — US stock symbol

Output:

• scorecard.business: {score, sector, industry, verdict_zh, verdict_en}
• scorecard.moat: {score, gross_margin, roe, profit_margin, market_cap_b, reasons_zh, reasons_en}
• scorecard.management: {score, dividend_rate, payout_ratio, reasons_zh, reasons_en}
• scorecard.valuation: {score, pe, forward_pe, peg, pb, fcf_yield_pct, ten_year_treasury, reasons_zh, reasons_en}
• scorecard.overall: {score, verdict, verdict_zh, verdict_en, color}

Example Queries

• Buffett analysis on KO → likely HOLDABLE (simple business, strong moat, 30+ year hold by Buffett himself)
• would Buffett buy NVDA → likely WATCHABLE or AVOID (complex sector, high valuation)
• Buffett scorecard JNJ → likely HOLDABLE (consumer defensive, strong margins, reasonable PE)
• score AAPL with Buffett lens → reference Berkshire's own holding for context
• apply Buffett's checklist to WMT → retail-native test case

Mock Data

Mock data in mock-data/buffett-analysis/ — sample for KO (HOLDABLE).

API Endpoint

POST /api/masters/buffett-analyze
Content-Type: application/json

Request body:

{"ticker": "KO"}

Response shape:

{
  "success": true,
  "ticker": "KO",
  "current_price": 63.4,
  "scorecard": {
    "business": {
      "score": 85,
      "sector": "Consumer Defensive",
      "industry": "Beverages - Non-Alcoholic",
      "verdict_zh": "业务相对简单,在巴菲特能力圈范围内",
      "verdict_en": "Relatively simple business within Buffett's circle"
    },
    "moat": {
      "score": 100,
      "gross_margin": 60.3,
      "roe": 41.8,
      "profit_margin": 22.4,
      "market_cap_b": 273.4,
      "reasons_zh": ["毛利率 60.3% > 40%,显示定价权", "ROE 41.8% > 20%,资本效率强", "市值 $273B > $100B,规模壁垒", "净利率 22.4% > 15%,强定价权"],
      "reasons_en": ["Gross margin 60.3% > 40% shows pricing power", "ROE 41.8% > 20% — strong capital efficiency", "Market cap $273B > $100B — scale moat", "Net margin 22.4% > 15% — strong pricing power"]
    },
    "management": {
      "score": 80,
      "dividend_rate": 1.94,
      "payout_ratio": 77.0,
      "reasons_zh": ["派息 $1.94 — 体现向股东返现意愿", "5 年平均股息率 3.1%"],
      "reasons_en": ["Dividend $1.94 — willingness to return cash", "5-yr avg div yield 3.1%"]
    },
    "valuation": {
      "score": 45,
      "pe": 24.8,
      "forward_pe": 22.1,
      "peg": 3.2,
      "pb": 10.5,
      "fcf_yield_pct": 3.5,
      "ten_year_treasury": 4.3,
      "reasons_zh": ["FCF 收益率 3.5% < 10Y 美债 4.3%,不如债券"],
      "reasons_en": ["FCF yield 3.5% < 10Y 4.3% — bonds beat it"]
    },
    "overall": {
      "score": 78.3,
      "verdict": "HOLDABLE",
      "verdict_zh": "符合巴菲特标准 — 值得长期持有",
      "verdict_en": "Meets Buffett standards — worth a long-term hold",
      "color": "green"
    }
  },
  "timestamp": "2026-04-24T08:00:00"
}

Pricing: 1 stock-analysis credit per call; 30-min cache per ticker (cache hits free).

Related Skills

Skill	Relevance
alphagbm-stock-analysis	House G=B+M model — complementary, different weights
alphagbm-company-profile	Deep fundamental profile once Buffett flags HOLDABLE
alphagbm-investment-thesis	Turn Buffett verdict into a trackable thesis

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