carta-waterfall-scenarios

name	carta-waterfall-scenarios
description	Fetch saved waterfall / exit scenario models for a company. Use when asked about liquidation preferences, exit payouts, return multiples, or waterfall analysis. Do NOT use for liquidation seniority stack or preferred stockholder voting analysis — use carta-ownership instead.
allowed-tools	["mcp__carta__fetch","mcp__carta__list_contexts","mcp__carta__set_context","mcp__carta__list_accounts","AskUserQuestion"]

Waterfall Scenarios

Fetch saved exit scenario models and present them with meaningful context, not just the per-holder table.

When to Use

• "Show me the waterfall analysis"
• "What do exit payouts look like at $50M?"
• "Who gets paid first in a liquidation?"
• "Compare exit scenarios"
• "What return multiples do investors get?"
• "Is anyone underwater in this exit model?"

Prerequisites

You need the corporation_id. Get it from list_accounts if you don't have it.

Data Retrieval

fetch("cap_table:get:waterfall_scenarios", {"corporation_id": corporation_id})

The command returns each completed (status == "DONE", non-draft) scenario with a per-holder breakdown of cost basis, payout value, share count, and return multiple.

Key Fields

• exit_value: total exit/liquidation amount for the scenario
• status: scenario status ("DONE" for completed models)
• cost_basis: what the holder originally paid
• payout_value / value_of_holdings: what the holder receives at exit
• share_count: number of shares held
• return_multiple: payout / cost basis (< 1.0x = loss)

Workflow

Step 1 — Fetch Scenarios

Call the data retrieval endpoint with the corporation ID.

Step 2 — Frame Each Scenario

Don't just show the table — frame each scenario:

• Lead with the exit value and what it means: who gets paid out, at what multiple, and whether any holders are underwater
• Highlight the biggest winners and losers by return multiple — a 1.0x return means a holder barely breaks even; anything below that means a loss
• If there are multiple scenarios, compare them: how do payouts shift as exit value changes? At what exit value does the common stack start to see meaningful returns?
• Note liquidation preference effects: if preferred holders take a large share at lower exit values, say so plainly

Step 3 — Flag Notable Items

• Any holder with return multiple < 1.0x (loss scenario)
• Large gap between pref payout and common payout at a given exit value
• Scenarios that are very close in exit value but have very different common distributions

Gates

Required inputs: corporation_id. If missing, call AskUserQuestion before proceeding (see carta-interaction-reference §4.1).

AI computation: No — this skill presents Carta data directly. Framing and comparison are presentational, not modeled.

Presentation

Format: Per-holder table + ASCII bar chart

BLUF lead: Lead with the exit value and a one-sentence summary of who benefits most and whether any holders are underwater.

Sort order: By payout descending (largest payout first).

After the per-holder table, render an ASCII bar chart of payout by holder. Scale bars to max width 40 chars:

Payout Distribution — $50M Exit

Lead Investor      ████████████████████████████████████████ $18.2M  3.7x
Founder            ████████████████████                     $9.1M   1.8x
Common Holders     ██████████                               $4.5M   0.9x

Each bar width = (value_of_holdings / max_value) * 40. Show return multiple after the dollar amount.

Per-holder table columns: Holder, Cost Basis, Payout, Return Multiple. Sort by payout descending.

Custom Exit Values

If the user asks to model a specific exit value not in the saved scenarios:

"There's no saved model at that exit value. To model a custom exit, create a new scenario in Carta's scenario modeling tool, then come back and I'll pull it up."

Caveats

• Waterfall models are read-only snapshots saved in Carta; this skill cannot create or modify scenarios.
• Return multiples are based on the scenario's modeled exit value, not a live valuation.
• Liquidation preference mechanics (participating vs. non-participating, caps) are baked into Carta's model — this skill does not re-derive them.
• Custom exit values cannot be modeled on the fly; they must be created in Carta first.