Before starting, read data-access.md for data access methods and design-system.md for formatting conventions. Follow the data access detection logic and design system throughout this skill.

This is the capstone skill that produces both a research note (styled HTML) and an Excel model (React artifact with SheetJS) from a single comprehensive data gathering pass.

Strategy

Rather than running /research-note and /build-model independently (which would duplicate data gathering), this skill gathers a superset of data once, then renders both outputs.

Phase 1 — Company Setup

Look up the company by ticker using discover_companies. Capture:

company_id
latest_calendar_quarter — anchor for all period calculations (see data-access.md Section 1.5)
latest_fiscal_quarter
Firm name for report attribution (default: "Daloopa") — see data-access.md Section 4.5

Get market data using the 3-step resolution: (1) MCP market data tools if available, (2) web search, (3) sensible defaults (see data-access.md Section 2):

Current price, market cap, shares outstanding, beta
Trading multiples (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S, P/B)
Risk-free rate (for DCF)

Initialize context: context = {company_name, ticker, date, price, market_cap, firm_name, ...}

Phase 2 — Comprehensive Data Gathering

Calculate 8-16 quarters backward from latest_calendar_quarter. Pull:

Income Statement — search and pull all available:

Revenue / Net Sales
Cost of Revenue / COGS
Gross Profit
Research & Development
Selling, General & Administrative
Total Operating Expenses
Operating Income
Interest Expense / Income
Pre-tax Income
Tax Expense
Net Income
Diluted EPS
Diluted Shares Outstanding
EBITDA (or compute from Op Income + D&A, label "(calc.)")
D&A

Balance Sheet — search and pull all available:

Cash and Equivalents
Short-term Investments
Accounts Receivable
Inventory
Total Current Assets
PP&E (net)
Goodwill
Total Assets
Accounts Payable
Short-term Debt
Long-term Debt
Total Liabilities
Total Equity

Cash Flow — search and pull all available:

Operating Cash Flow
Capital Expenditures
Depreciation & Amortization
Acquisitions
Dividends Paid
Share Repurchases
Free Cash Flow (compute if not direct: OCF - CapEx, label "(calc.)")

Segments:

Revenue by segment
Operating income by segment (if available)

Geographic:

Revenue by geography

KPIs:

All company-specific operating metrics (subscribers, units, ARPU, retention, etc.)

Guidance:

All guidance series and corresponding actuals

Share Activity:

Share count, buyback amounts

For every value returned by get_company_fundamentals, record its fundamental_id (the id field). Store each data point as {value, fundamental_id} so citations can be rendered in both outputs.

Compute margins, YoY growth rates, and ratios for each quarter.

Cost Structure & Margin Analysis

After the core financial pull:

COGS driver identification: Search for cost-related series ("cost of goods", "materials", "manufacturing", "input cost"). Identify 3-5 biggest cost line items and their trends.
OpEx breakdown: Pull R&D and SG&A separately. Compute R&D % of revenue and SG&A % of revenue trends.
Margin driver analysis: For each major margin (gross, operating, net), identify what's driving expansion or compression — pricing power, cost leverage, mix shift, or one-time items.

Phase 3 — Industry-Specific Deep Dive

Determine the company's sector and apply the relevant analysis template:

Manufacturing/Industrial: Bookings & backlog, book-to-bill ratio, pipeline by geography, capacity utilization
SaaS/Technology: ARR/MRR trajectory, net retention rate, customer cohort analysis, RPO/deferred revenue trends
Retail/Consumer: Same-store sales, store count trajectory, traffic vs ticket decomposition, inventory health
Financials/Banks: NIM trajectory, provision trends, loan growth by category, capital ratios (CET1, TCE)
Healthcare/Pharma: Pipeline summary (drug, indication, phase, milestone), product revenue breakdown, patent cliff timeline
Energy: Production volumes, realized pricing vs benchmark, proved reserves, breakeven analysis

Search for relevant series using discover_company_series with sector-appropriate keywords. Pull available data and build the narrative.

Build context.industry_deep_dive (string) — sector-specific analysis narrative with Daloopa citations, organized by the relevant template above.

Phase 4 — Peer Analysis

Identify 5-8 comparable companies. Get peer trading multiples using the 3-step resolution: (1) MCP market data tools if available, (2) web search, (3) sensible defaults (see data-access.md Section 2). If consensus forward estimates are available (data-access.md Section 3), include NTM estimates. Pull peer fundamentals from Daloopa where available (revenue growth, margins).

Build context.comps and context.comps_table.

Phase 5 — Projections

Build forward estimates using the following methodology:

Revenue: Start with latest guidance (if available), then decay to long-term growth rate (industry average or historical trend). Apply quarterly seasonality patterns from trailing data.
Gross Margin: Mean-revert to trailing 8-quarter average, with adjustment for recent trends or guidance commentary.
Operating Expenses: Project as % of revenue, trending toward trailing averages. R&D and SG&A may have different trajectories.
CapEx: Project as % of revenue based on trailing 4-8 quarter average and guidance.
D&A: Project based on trailing average as % of revenue or PP&E.
Tax Rate: Use trailing effective tax rate or guidance.
Share Count: Project dilution/buyback based on trailing trends and guidance.
Working Capital: Project DSO, DIO, DPO based on trailing averages.

Calculate all quarterly projections, then sum to annual. Project 4-8 quarters forward. Describe methodology inline and perform calculations directly.

Phase 6 — DCF Valuation

Calculate:

WACC: Use CAPM for cost of equity (Rf + Beta × ERP, where ERP = 6.0%). Cost of debt = Interest Expense / Total Debt. WACC = (E/V × Re) + (D/V × Rd × (1 - Tax Rate)).
5-year FCF projections: Annualize from quarterly projections (FCF = Op Cash Flow - CapEx).
Terminal Value: Use perpetuity growth at 2.5-3.0%.
Implied Share Price: (PV of FCFs + Terminal Value - Net Debt) / Shares Outstanding
Sensitivity Matrix: WACC (7 values: -3% to +3% from base) × Terminal Growth (6 values: 1.5% to 4.0%).

Build context.dcf and context.dcf_summary (set context.has_dcf = true).

Phase 7 — Qualitative Research + News & Catalysts

SEC Filing Research

Search SEC filings across multiple queries:

"risk" / "uncertainty" / "challenge" for risk factors
"growth" / "opportunity" / "expansion" for growth drivers
"competition" / "market share" for competitive dynamics
"outlook" / "guidance" for management's forward view
Company-specific strategic topics (e.g., "AI", "cloud", etc.)

Extract and organize into:

context.risks — ranked list of risks with impact/probability
context.investment_thesis — variant perception, thesis pillars, catalysts
context.company_description — 2-3 sentence business description

News & Catalysts via WebSearch

Run 4 WebSearch queries to gather recent external context:

"{TICKER} {company_name} news {year}" — recent headlines and developments
"{TICKER} analyst upgrade downgrade price target" — sell-side sentiment shifts
"{TICKER} catalysts risks" — forward-looking events and risk factors
"{company_name} industry outlook {sector}" — macro and industry trends

Organize results into:

context.news_timeline (string) — 6-10 key events from the last 6-12 months in reverse chronological order. Each event: date, headline, 1-sentence impact, sentiment tag (Positive / Negative / Mixed / Upcoming). Format as a numbered list.
context.forward_catalysts (string) — Organized by timeframe:
- Near-term (0-3 months, HIGH priority): earnings dates, product launches, regulatory decisions
- Medium-term (3-12 months, MEDIUM priority): strategic milestones, contract renewals, industry events
- Long-term (1-3 years, LOW priority): secular trends, market expansion, competitive dynamics
context.policy_backdrop (string) — Macro/regulatory context affecting the company. Tariffs, regulation, interest rates, sector-specific policy. Leave empty string if not material.

Phase 8 — Guidance Track Record

Search for guidance series ("guidance", "outlook", "forecast", "estimate", "target"). Pull guidance and corresponding actuals. Apply +1 quarter offset rule for quarterly guidance, same-year rule for annual guidance from Q1/Q2/Q3, next-year rule for annual guidance from Q4. Compute beat/miss rates and patterns. Build context.guidance and context.guidance_table (set context.has_guidance = true/false).

Phase 9 — What You Need to Believe

Build falsifiable bull/bear beliefs:

Bull Beliefs (To Go Long)

Write 4-6 numbered beliefs, each with:

One bold statement (the belief itself)
2-3 sentences of evidence with Daloopa citations supporting why this could be true
Each belief must be falsifiable — testable with observable data within 6 months

Example format: "1. Revenue growth re-accelerates to 15%+ as AI monetization scales. Cloud segment grew $X.Xbn last quarter, up X% YoY, with management noting..."

Bear Beliefs (To Go Short)

Same format — 4-6 numbered falsifiable beliefs with evidence for the downside case.

Valuation Math

For each side:

Bull target: forward multiple × forward earnings estimate = price target. Show the math.
Bear target: same structure with bear-case multiple and earnings.

Risk/Reward Assessment

Compare bull upside % vs bear downside % from current price
If asymmetry is significant (e.g., 30% upside vs 40% downside), flag it explicitly
State which side has the better risk/reward and why

Build context.bull_beliefs, context.bull_target, context.bear_beliefs, context.bear_target, context.risk_reward_assessment.

Phase 10 — Capital Allocation

Pull buyback, dividend, share count, FCF data. Compute shareholder yield, FCF payout ratio, net leverage. Build context.capital_allocation_commentary.

Phase 11 — Synthesis + Tensions + Monitoring

This is the most judgment-intensive step. Be honest and critical — the reader is a professional investor who needs your real assessment, not a balanced summary.

Core Synthesis

Write:

Executive Summary: 3-4 sentence TL;DR covering current state, key thesis, valuation view. Include a clear directional view — is this stock attractive, fairly valued, or overvalued at the current price?
Variant Perception: What does the market think vs what do you see in the data? Where is the consensus wrong? If you agree with consensus, say that too — but explain what could change.
Key Findings: Top 3-5 most notable data points or trends — prioritize what changes the investment thesis, not just what's interesting
Red Flags & Concerns: Any quality-of-earnings issues, sustainability questions, or risks the market may be underpricing
Build context.executive_summary, context.variant_perception

Five Key Tensions

Identify the 5 most critical bull/bear debates for this stock. Each tension is a single line that frames both sides. Alternate between bullish-leaning and bearish-leaning tensions. Every tension must reference a specific data point from the analysis.

Format as a numbered list:

"[Bullish factor] vs [Bearish factor]" — cite the specific metric
"[Bearish factor] vs [Bullish factor]" — cite the specific metric ...etc.

Build context.five_key_tensions (string).

Monitoring Framework

Build two monitoring lists for ongoing tracking:

Quantitative Monitors — 5-7 specific metrics with explicit thresholds:

Format: "Metric: current value → bull threshold / bear threshold"
Example: "Gross Margin: 45.2% → above 46% confirms pricing power / below 43% signals cost pressure"

Qualitative Monitors — 5-7 factors to watch:

Management tone shifts on earnings calls
Competitive dynamics (new entrants, pricing pressure)
Regulatory developments
Customer concentration changes
Capital allocation pivots

Build context.monitoring_quantitative and context.monitoring_qualitative (strings, numbered lists).

Structured Tables

Build structured tables for both outputs:

context.key_metrics_table — [{metric, value, vs_prior}] for the exec summary table
context.financials_table — [{metric, q1, q2, ...}] for the financial analysis section
context.segments_table, context.geo_table, context.shares_outstanding_table
context.opex_breakdown_table — [{metric, q1, q2, ...}] for R&D, SG&A, % of revenue rows
context.guidance_table, context.comps_table, etc.

Phase 12 — Render Research Note (HTML)

Using the HTML Report Template from design-system.md, generate a styled HTML report with full CSS inlined. The report should include:

Header Section:

Company name and ticker
Report date and firm attribution
Five Key Tensions (numbered list)

Section 1: Executive Summary

Key metrics table
Executive summary narrative
Variant perception

Section 2: Company Overview

Business description
Investment thesis

Section 3: Recent News & Catalysts

News timeline
Forward catalysts
Policy backdrop

Section 4: Financial Analysis

Financials table (8-16 quarters)
Cost structure & margin analysis
OpEx breakdown table
Segment and geographic tables
Share count table

Section 5: Industry-Specific Analysis

Industry deep dive narrative

Section 6: Guidance Track Record

Guidance table and beat/miss analysis (if available)

Section 7: What You Need to Believe

Bull beliefs with valuation target
Bear beliefs with valuation target
Risk/reward assessment

Section 8: Catalysts

Forward catalysts
Policy backdrop

Section 9: Capital Allocation

Capital allocation commentary

Section 10: Valuation

DCF summary and sensitivity (if available)
Comps commentary (if available)

Section 11: Risks

Risks summary

Section 12: Monitoring Framework

Quantitative monitors
Qualitative monitors

Appendix:

Additional context or data

Context Key Checklist

Verify these keys exist before rendering (set empty string if data unavailable):

Cover & Summary: company_name, ticker, date, price, market_cap, five_key_tensions, executive_summary, key_metrics_table

Thesis & Overview: investment_thesis, variant_perception, company_description

News: news_timeline

Financials: financials_table, cost_margin_analysis, opex_breakdown_table, segments_table, geo_table, shares_outstanding_table

Industry: industry_deep_dive

Guidance: has_guidance, guidance_track_record

What You Need to Believe: bull_beliefs, bull_target, bear_beliefs, bear_target, risk_reward_assessment

Catalysts: forward_catalysts, policy_backdrop

Capital Allocation: capital_allocation_commentary

Valuation: has_dcf, dcf_summary, has_comps, comps_commentary

Risks: risks_summary

Monitoring: monitoring_quantitative, monitoring_qualitative

Appendix: appendix_content

Citation enforcement: Every financial figure from Daloopa in the HTML report must use citation format: [$X.XX million](https://daloopa.com/src/{fundamental_id}). If a number came from get_company_fundamentals, it must have a citation link. No exceptions.

Phase 13 — Render Excel Model

Generate a React artifact that builds the .xlsx file using SheetJS (xlsx library). The artifact should:

Create 8 tabs with the following structure:

Tab 1: Income Statement

Rows: Revenue, COGS, Gross Profit, R&D, SG&A, Total OpEx, Op Income, Interest, Pre-Tax Income, Tax, Net Income, Diluted EPS, Shares
Columns: Historical periods (8-16Q) + Projected periods (4-8Q)
Sub-rows: YoY growth %, margin % where applicable
Header: Company name, ticker, report date
Formatting: Numbers with commas/decimals, percentages, bold headers, frozen panes

Tab 2: Balance Sheet

Rows: Assets section (Cash, Investments, AR, Inventory, Current Assets, PP&E, Goodwill, Total Assets), Liabilities section (AP, ST Debt, LT Debt, Total Liabilities, Equity)
Columns: Historical + Projected periods
Sub-rows: % of Total Assets for key line items
Same formatting standards

Tab 3: Cash Flow

Rows: Op Cash Flow, CapEx, Free Cash Flow, Acquisitions, Dividends, Buybacks, Net Change in Cash
Columns: Historical + Projected periods
Sub-rows: FCF yield %, CapEx as % Revenue
Same formatting standards

Tab 4: Segments

Rows: Revenue by segment, Op Income by segment (if available)
Columns: Historical + Projected periods
Sub-rows: Segment as % of total, segment growth rates
Same formatting standards

Tab 5: KPIs

Rows: All company-specific operating metrics discovered
Columns: Historical + Projected periods
Sub-rows: YoY growth or relevant unit economics
Same formatting standards

Tab 6: Projections

Editable assumption inputs (yellow highlighting): Revenue growth %, Gross margin %, Op margin %, CapEx % revenue, Tax rate %, Buyback rate QoQ
Calculated outputs: Projected P&L, BS, CF driven by assumptions
Commentary box explaining methodology
Same formatting standards

Tab 7: DCF

Inputs: WACC, Terminal Growth, Risk-Free Rate, ERP, Beta, Cost of Debt
FCF Projection (5 years annualized)
Terminal Value calculation
PV calculations
Enterprise Value → Equity Value → Implied Share Price
Sensitivity table: WACC (rows) × Terminal Growth (cols) showing implied price
Color scale: green (upside) to red (downside) vs current price
Same formatting standards

Tab 8: Summary

Company overview (name, ticker, sector, description)
Current market data (price, market cap, shares, beta)
Valuation summary: DCF implied price, peer-implied range, current price, upside/downside %
Peer trading multiples table
Key model outputs: Trailing revenue, Projected revenue growth, Trailing/Projected margins
Same formatting standards

Apply design-system.md formatting conventions:

Number format: $X.Xbn for large numbers, X.X% for percentages, X.Xx for multiples
Color palette: Navy #1B2A4A (headers), Steel Blue #4A6FA5 (sub-headers), Gold #C5A55A (highlights), Green #27AE60 (positive), Red #C0392B (negative)
Bold headers, frozen top row and left column
Yellow fill (#FFEB3B) for editable input cells

Include a download button that triggers the .xlsx file download with filename: {TICKER}_model.xlsx

Output

Present both deliverables to the user:

Research Note (HTML):

Present the styled HTML report directly in the response
Tell the user to save the HTML and open in browser for full formatting

Excel Model (React Artifact):

Present the React artifact with SheetJS
Tell the user to click the download button to save the .xlsx file
Note that yellow cells in the Projections tab are editable inputs

Summary:

3-4 sentence executive summary
Key valuation range (DCF implied price + comps range)
Top 3 findings
Bull upside % vs bear downside % risk/reward assessment

All financial figures must use Daloopa citation format: $X.XX million

name	initiate
description	Initiate coverage — generate both research note (HTML) and Excel model (.xlsx)
argument-hint	TICKER

Initiate coverage on the company specified by the user: $ARGUMENTS

Before starting, read data-access.md for data access methods and design-system.md for formatting conventions. Follow the data access detection logic and design system throughout this skill.

This is the capstone skill that produces both a research note (styled HTML) and an Excel model (React artifact with SheetJS) from a single comprehensive data gathering pass.

Strategy

Rather than running /research-note and /build-model independently (which would duplicate data gathering), this skill gathers a superset of data once, then renders both outputs.

Phase 1 — Company Setup

Look up the company by ticker using discover_companies. Capture:

company_id
latest_calendar_quarter — anchor for all period calculations (see data-access.md Section 1.5)
latest_fiscal_quarter
Firm name for report attribution (default: "Daloopa") — see data-access.md Section 4.5

Get market data using the 3-step resolution: (1) MCP market data tools if available, (2) web search, (3) sensible defaults (see data-access.md Section 2):

Current price, market cap, shares outstanding, beta
Trading multiples (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S, P/B)
Risk-free rate (for DCF)

Initialize context: context = {company_name, ticker, date, price, market_cap, firm_name, ...}

Phase 2 — Comprehensive Data Gathering

Calculate 8-16 quarters backward from latest_calendar_quarter. Pull:

Income Statement — search and pull all available:

Revenue / Net Sales
Cost of Revenue / COGS
Gross Profit
Research & Development
Selling, General & Administrative
Total Operating Expenses
Operating Income
Interest Expense / Income
Pre-tax Income
Tax Expense
Net Income
Diluted EPS
Diluted Shares Outstanding
EBITDA (or compute from Op Income + D&A, label "(calc.)")
D&A

Balance Sheet — search and pull all available:

Cash and Equivalents
Short-term Investments
Accounts Receivable
Inventory
Total Current Assets
PP&E (net)
Goodwill
Total Assets
Accounts Payable
Short-term Debt
Long-term Debt
Total Liabilities
Total Equity

Cash Flow — search and pull all available:

Operating Cash Flow
Capital Expenditures
Depreciation & Amortization
Acquisitions
Dividends Paid
Share Repurchases
Free Cash Flow (compute if not direct: OCF - CapEx, label "(calc.)")

Segments:

Revenue by segment
Operating income by segment (if available)

Geographic:

Revenue by geography

KPIs:

All company-specific operating metrics (subscribers, units, ARPU, retention, etc.)

Guidance:

All guidance series and corresponding actuals

Share Activity:

Share count, buyback amounts

Compute margins, YoY growth rates, and ratios for each quarter.

Cost Structure & Margin Analysis

After the core financial pull:

COGS driver identification: Search for cost-related series ("cost of goods", "materials", "manufacturing", "input cost"). Identify 3-5 biggest cost line items and their trends.
OpEx breakdown: Pull R&D and SG&A separately. Compute R&D % of revenue and SG&A % of revenue trends.
Margin driver analysis: For each major margin (gross, operating, net), identify what's driving expansion or compression — pricing power, cost leverage, mix shift, or one-time items.

Phase 3 — Industry-Specific Deep Dive

Determine the company's sector and apply the relevant analysis template:

Manufacturing/Industrial: Bookings & backlog, book-to-bill ratio, pipeline by geography, capacity utilization
SaaS/Technology: ARR/MRR trajectory, net retention rate, customer cohort analysis, RPO/deferred revenue trends
Retail/Consumer: Same-store sales, store count trajectory, traffic vs ticket decomposition, inventory health
Financials/Banks: NIM trajectory, provision trends, loan growth by category, capital ratios (CET1, TCE)
Healthcare/Pharma: Pipeline summary (drug, indication, phase, milestone), product revenue breakdown, patent cliff timeline
Energy: Production volumes, realized pricing vs benchmark, proved reserves, breakeven analysis

Search for relevant series using discover_company_series with sector-appropriate keywords. Pull available data and build the narrative.

Build context.industry_deep_dive (string) — sector-specific analysis narrative with Daloopa citations, organized by the relevant template above.

Phase 4 — Peer Analysis

Build context.comps and context.comps_table.

Phase 5 — Projections

Build forward estimates using the following methodology:

Revenue: Start with latest guidance (if available), then decay to long-term growth rate (industry average or historical trend). Apply quarterly seasonality patterns from trailing data.
Gross Margin: Mean-revert to trailing 8-quarter average, with adjustment for recent trends or guidance commentary.
Operating Expenses: Project as % of revenue, trending toward trailing averages. R&D and SG&A may have different trajectories.
CapEx: Project as % of revenue based on trailing 4-8 quarter average and guidance.
D&A: Project based on trailing average as % of revenue or PP&E.
Tax Rate: Use trailing effective tax rate or guidance.
Share Count: Project dilution/buyback based on trailing trends and guidance.
Working Capital: Project DSO, DIO, DPO based on trailing averages.

Calculate all quarterly projections, then sum to annual. Project 4-8 quarters forward. Describe methodology inline and perform calculations directly.

Phase 6 — DCF Valuation

Calculate:

WACC: Use CAPM for cost of equity (Rf + Beta × ERP, where ERP = 6.0%). Cost of debt = Interest Expense / Total Debt. WACC = (E/V × Re) + (D/V × Rd × (1 - Tax Rate)).
5-year FCF projections: Annualize from quarterly projections (FCF = Op Cash Flow - CapEx).
Terminal Value: Use perpetuity growth at 2.5-3.0%.
Implied Share Price: (PV of FCFs + Terminal Value - Net Debt) / Shares Outstanding
Sensitivity Matrix: WACC (7 values: -3% to +3% from base) × Terminal Growth (6 values: 1.5% to 4.0%).

Build context.dcf and context.dcf_summary (set context.has_dcf = true).

Phase 7 — Qualitative Research + News & Catalysts

SEC Filing Research

Search SEC filings across multiple queries:

"risk" / "uncertainty" / "challenge" for risk factors
"growth" / "opportunity" / "expansion" for growth drivers
"competition" / "market share" for competitive dynamics
"outlook" / "guidance" for management's forward view
Company-specific strategic topics (e.g., "AI", "cloud", etc.)

Extract and organize into:

context.risks — ranked list of risks with impact/probability
context.investment_thesis — variant perception, thesis pillars, catalysts
context.company_description — 2-3 sentence business description

News & Catalysts via WebSearch

Run 4 WebSearch queries to gather recent external context:

"{TICKER} {company_name} news {year}" — recent headlines and developments
"{TICKER} analyst upgrade downgrade price target" — sell-side sentiment shifts
"{TICKER} catalysts risks" — forward-looking events and risk factors
"{company_name} industry outlook {sector}" — macro and industry trends

Organize results into:

context.news_timeline (string) — 6-10 key events from the last 6-12 months in reverse chronological order. Each event: date, headline, 1-sentence impact, sentiment tag (Positive / Negative / Mixed / Upcoming). Format as a numbered list.
context.forward_catalysts (string) — Organized by timeframe:
- Near-term (0-3 months, HIGH priority): earnings dates, product launches, regulatory decisions
- Medium-term (3-12 months, MEDIUM priority): strategic milestones, contract renewals, industry events
- Long-term (1-3 years, LOW priority): secular trends, market expansion, competitive dynamics
context.policy_backdrop (string) — Macro/regulatory context affecting the company. Tariffs, regulation, interest rates, sector-specific policy. Leave empty string if not material.

Phase 8 — Guidance Track Record

Phase 9 — What You Need to Believe

Build falsifiable bull/bear beliefs:

Bull Beliefs (To Go Long)

Write 4-6 numbered beliefs, each with:

One bold statement (the belief itself)
2-3 sentences of evidence with Daloopa citations supporting why this could be true
Each belief must be falsifiable — testable with observable data within 6 months

Example format: "1. Revenue growth re-accelerates to 15%+ as AI monetization scales. Cloud segment grew $X.Xbn last quarter, up X% YoY, with management noting..."

Bear Beliefs (To Go Short)

Same format — 4-6 numbered falsifiable beliefs with evidence for the downside case.

Valuation Math

For each side:

Bull target: forward multiple × forward earnings estimate = price target. Show the math.
Bear target: same structure with bear-case multiple and earnings.

Risk/Reward Assessment

Compare bull upside % vs bear downside % from current price
If asymmetry is significant (e.g., 30% upside vs 40% downside), flag it explicitly
State which side has the better risk/reward and why

Build context.bull_beliefs, context.bull_target, context.bear_beliefs, context.bear_target, context.risk_reward_assessment.

Phase 10 — Capital Allocation

Pull buyback, dividend, share count, FCF data. Compute shareholder yield, FCF payout ratio, net leverage. Build context.capital_allocation_commentary.

Phase 11 — Synthesis + Tensions + Monitoring

This is the most judgment-intensive step. Be honest and critical — the reader is a professional investor who needs your real assessment, not a balanced summary.

Core Synthesis

Write:

Executive Summary: 3-4 sentence TL;DR covering current state, key thesis, valuation view. Include a clear directional view — is this stock attractive, fairly valued, or overvalued at the current price?
Variant Perception: What does the market think vs what do you see in the data? Where is the consensus wrong? If you agree with consensus, say that too — but explain what could change.
Key Findings: Top 3-5 most notable data points or trends — prioritize what changes the investment thesis, not just what's interesting
Red Flags & Concerns: Any quality-of-earnings issues, sustainability questions, or risks the market may be underpricing
Build context.executive_summary, context.variant_perception

Five Key Tensions

Format as a numbered list:

"[Bullish factor] vs [Bearish factor]" — cite the specific metric
"[Bearish factor] vs [Bullish factor]" — cite the specific metric ...etc.

Build context.five_key_tensions (string).

Monitoring Framework

Build two monitoring lists for ongoing tracking:

Quantitative Monitors — 5-7 specific metrics with explicit thresholds:

Format: "Metric: current value → bull threshold / bear threshold"
Example: "Gross Margin: 45.2% → above 46% confirms pricing power / below 43% signals cost pressure"

Qualitative Monitors — 5-7 factors to watch:

Management tone shifts on earnings calls
Competitive dynamics (new entrants, pricing pressure)
Regulatory developments
Customer concentration changes
Capital allocation pivots

Build context.monitoring_quantitative and context.monitoring_qualitative (strings, numbered lists).

Structured Tables

Build structured tables for both outputs:

context.key_metrics_table — [{metric, value, vs_prior}] for the exec summary table
context.financials_table — [{metric, q1, q2, ...}] for the financial analysis section
context.segments_table, context.geo_table, context.shares_outstanding_table
context.opex_breakdown_table — [{metric, q1, q2, ...}] for R&D, SG&A, % of revenue rows
context.guidance_table, context.comps_table, etc.

Phase 12 — Render Research Note (HTML)

Using the HTML Report Template from design-system.md, generate a styled HTML report with full CSS inlined. The report should include:

Header Section:

Company name and ticker
Report date and firm attribution
Five Key Tensions (numbered list)

Section 1: Executive Summary

Key metrics table
Executive summary narrative
Variant perception

Section 2: Company Overview

Business description
Investment thesis

Section 3: Recent News & Catalysts

News timeline
Forward catalysts
Policy backdrop

Section 4: Financial Analysis

Financials table (8-16 quarters)
Cost structure & margin analysis
OpEx breakdown table
Segment and geographic tables
Share count table

Section 5: Industry-Specific Analysis

Industry deep dive narrative

Section 6: Guidance Track Record

Guidance table and beat/miss analysis (if available)

Section 7: What You Need to Believe

Bull beliefs with valuation target
Bear beliefs with valuation target
Risk/reward assessment

Section 8: Catalysts

Forward catalysts
Policy backdrop

Section 9: Capital Allocation

Capital allocation commentary

Section 10: Valuation

DCF summary and sensitivity (if available)
Comps commentary (if available)

Section 11: Risks

Risks summary

Section 12: Monitoring Framework

Quantitative monitors
Qualitative monitors

Appendix:

Additional context or data

Context Key Checklist

Verify these keys exist before rendering (set empty string if data unavailable):

Cover & Summary: company_name, ticker, date, price, market_cap, five_key_tensions, executive_summary, key_metrics_table

Thesis & Overview: investment_thesis, variant_perception, company_description

News: news_timeline

Financials: financials_table, cost_margin_analysis, opex_breakdown_table, segments_table, geo_table, shares_outstanding_table

Industry: industry_deep_dive

Guidance: has_guidance, guidance_track_record

What You Need to Believe: bull_beliefs, bull_target, bear_beliefs, bear_target, risk_reward_assessment

Catalysts: forward_catalysts, policy_backdrop

Capital Allocation: capital_allocation_commentary

Valuation: has_dcf, dcf_summary, has_comps, comps_commentary

Risks: risks_summary

Monitoring: monitoring_quantitative, monitoring_qualitative

Appendix: appendix_content

Phase 13 — Render Excel Model

Generate a React artifact that builds the .xlsx file using SheetJS (xlsx library). The artifact should:

Create 8 tabs with the following structure:

Tab 1: Income Statement

Rows: Revenue, COGS, Gross Profit, R&D, SG&A, Total OpEx, Op Income, Interest, Pre-Tax Income, Tax, Net Income, Diluted EPS, Shares
Columns: Historical periods (8-16Q) + Projected periods (4-8Q)
Sub-rows: YoY growth %, margin % where applicable
Header: Company name, ticker, report date
Formatting: Numbers with commas/decimals, percentages, bold headers, frozen panes

Tab 2: Balance Sheet

Rows: Assets section (Cash, Investments, AR, Inventory, Current Assets, PP&E, Goodwill, Total Assets), Liabilities section (AP, ST Debt, LT Debt, Total Liabilities, Equity)
Columns: Historical + Projected periods
Sub-rows: % of Total Assets for key line items
Same formatting standards

Tab 3: Cash Flow

Rows: Op Cash Flow, CapEx, Free Cash Flow, Acquisitions, Dividends, Buybacks, Net Change in Cash
Columns: Historical + Projected periods
Sub-rows: FCF yield %, CapEx as % Revenue
Same formatting standards

Tab 4: Segments

Rows: Revenue by segment, Op Income by segment (if available)
Columns: Historical + Projected periods
Sub-rows: Segment as % of total, segment growth rates
Same formatting standards

Tab 5: KPIs

Rows: All company-specific operating metrics discovered
Columns: Historical + Projected periods
Sub-rows: YoY growth or relevant unit economics
Same formatting standards

Tab 6: Projections

Editable assumption inputs (yellow highlighting): Revenue growth %, Gross margin %, Op margin %, CapEx % revenue, Tax rate %, Buyback rate QoQ
Calculated outputs: Projected P&L, BS, CF driven by assumptions
Commentary box explaining methodology
Same formatting standards

Tab 7: DCF

Inputs: WACC, Terminal Growth, Risk-Free Rate, ERP, Beta, Cost of Debt
FCF Projection (5 years annualized)
Terminal Value calculation
PV calculations
Enterprise Value → Equity Value → Implied Share Price
Sensitivity table: WACC (rows) × Terminal Growth (cols) showing implied price
Color scale: green (upside) to red (downside) vs current price
Same formatting standards

Tab 8: Summary

Company overview (name, ticker, sector, description)
Current market data (price, market cap, shares, beta)
Valuation summary: DCF implied price, peer-implied range, current price, upside/downside %
Peer trading multiples table
Key model outputs: Trailing revenue, Projected revenue growth, Trailing/Projected margins
Same formatting standards

Apply design-system.md formatting conventions:

Number format: $X.Xbn for large numbers, X.X% for percentages, X.Xx for multiples
Color palette: Navy #1B2A4A (headers), Steel Blue #4A6FA5 (sub-headers), Gold #C5A55A (highlights), Green #27AE60 (positive), Red #C0392B (negative)
Bold headers, frozen top row and left column
Yellow fill (#FFEB3B) for editable input cells

Include a download button that triggers the .xlsx file download with filename: {TICKER}_model.xlsx

Output

Present both deliverables to the user:

Research Note (HTML):

Present the styled HTML report directly in the response
Tell the user to save the HTML and open in browser for full formatting

Excel Model (React Artifact):

Present the React artifact with SheetJS
Tell the user to click the download button to save the .xlsx file
Note that yellow cells in the Projections tab are editable inputs

Summary:

3-4 sentence executive summary
Key valuation range (DCF implied price + comps range)
Top 3 findings
Bull upside % vs bear downside % risk/reward assessment

All financial figures must use Daloopa citation format: $X.XX million

initiate

More from this repository

More from this repository

Strategy

Phase 1 — Company Setup

Phase 2 — Comprehensive Data Gathering

Cost Structure & Margin Analysis

Phase 3 — Industry-Specific Deep Dive

Phase 4 — Peer Analysis

Phase 5 — Projections

Phase 6 — DCF Valuation

Phase 7 — Qualitative Research + News & Catalysts

SEC Filing Research

News & Catalysts via WebSearch

Phase 8 — Guidance Track Record

Phase 9 — What You Need to Believe

Bull Beliefs (To Go Long)

Bear Beliefs (To Go Short)

Valuation Math

Risk/Reward Assessment

Phase 10 — Capital Allocation

Phase 11 — Synthesis + Tensions + Monitoring

Core Synthesis

Five Key Tensions

Monitoring Framework

Structured Tables

Phase 12 — Render Research Note (HTML)

Context Key Checklist

Phase 13 — Render Excel Model

Output

Strategy

Phase 1 — Company Setup

Phase 2 — Comprehensive Data Gathering

Cost Structure & Margin Analysis

Phase 3 — Industry-Specific Deep Dive

Phase 4 — Peer Analysis

Phase 5 — Projections

Phase 6 — DCF Valuation

Phase 7 — Qualitative Research + News & Catalysts

SEC Filing Research

News & Catalysts via WebSearch

Phase 8 — Guidance Track Record

Phase 9 — What You Need to Believe

Bull Beliefs (To Go Long)

Bear Beliefs (To Go Short)

Valuation Math

Risk/Reward Assessment

Phase 10 — Capital Allocation

Phase 11 — Synthesis + Tensions + Monitoring

Core Synthesis

Five Key Tensions

Monitoring Framework

Structured Tables

Phase 12 — Render Research Note (HTML)

Context Key Checklist

Phase 13 — Render Excel Model

Output