business-evaluation

name	business-evaluation
version	1.0.0
description	[Content] Use when you need to evaluate business idea viability: Business Model Canvas, financial projections, risk matrix, go-to-market, execution plan.

[BLOCKING] Execute skill steps in declared order. NEVER skip, reorder, or merge steps without explicit user approval. [BLOCKING] Before each step or sub-skill call, update task tracking: set in_progress when step starts, set completed when step ends. [BLOCKING] Every completed/skipped step MUST include brief evidence or explicit skip reason. [BLOCKING] If Task tools are unavailable, create and maintain an equivalent step-by-step plan tracker with the same status transitions.

Quick Summary

Goal: Evaluate business idea viability with BMC, financials, risk matrix, GTM, and execution plan.

Workflow:

1. Capture idea — Problem, solution, target customer
2. Load market analysis — Market data from market-analysis
3. Business Model Canvas — All 9 blocks with evidence
4. Financial projections — 3-year revenue, costs, break-even
5. Risk assessment — 5+ risks with mitigation
6. Execution plan — 3 phases with milestones
7. Verdict — Viability score, confidence, recommendation

Key Rules:

• All 9 BMC blocks required, each with evidence
• Financial projections: explicit assumptions table
• Minimum 5 risks with mitigation AND residual risk
• Verdict must be evidence-backed with confidence declaration

Be skeptical. Apply critical thinking, sequential thinking. Every claim needs traced proof, confidence percentages (Idea should be more than 80%).

Business Evaluation

Step 1: Capture the Idea

From user input, extract:

• One-liner — Elevator pitch in 1 sentence
• Problem — What pain point does it solve?
• Solution — How does it solve it?
• Target customer — Who specifically benefits?

Step 2: Business Model Canvas

All 9 blocks required:

Block	Key Question	Evidence Required
Customer Segments	Who are we serving?	Market research
Value Propositions	What value do we deliver?	Customer pain points
Channels	How do we reach customers?	Channel analysis
Customer Relationships	How do we maintain relationships?	Retention strategy
Revenue Streams	How do we make money?	Pricing research
Key Resources	What do we need?	Resource assessment
Key Activities	What must we do?	Operational analysis
Key Partnerships	Who helps us?	Partner landscape
Cost Structure	What does it cost?	Cost analysis

Step 3: Financial Projections (3 Years)

Revenue Model

Year	Users/Customers	ARPU	Revenue	Growth

Cost Structure

Category	Y1	Y2	Y3

Break-Even

• Monthly burn: ${X}
• Break-even point: Month/Year
• Funding needed: ${X}

Assumptions Table

Every number must list its assumption and source.

Step 4: Risk Assessment

Minimum 5 risks:

Risk	Likelihood	Impact	Mitigation	Residual Risk

Categories to consider: market, execution, financial, competitive, regulatory, technical.

Step 5: Execution Plan

Phase	Timeline	Focus	Key Milestones
Validation	0-3 months	Customer discovery, MVP	N interviews, prototype
Build	3-6 months	Core product, early users	Beta launch, first revenue
Growth	6-12 months	Scale, optimize	Revenue target, team size

Step 6: Go-to-Market

• Launch strategy — How to enter the market
• Initial channels — Top 3 acquisition channels
• Pricing strategy — Model + rationale + competitive comparison

Step 7: Verdict

• Viability score: 1-10 with rationale
• Confidence: 95%/80%/60%/<60% with evidence basis
• Recommendation: Pursue | Pivot | Pause | Pass
• Key condition: What must be true for this to succeed?

Output

Write to docs/knowledge/strategy/business/{descriptive-slug}.md using enforced template from .claude/templates/business-evaluation-template.md.

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Next Steps

MANDATORY IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION — NO EXCEPTIONS after completing this skill, you MUST ATTENTION use AskUserQuestion to present these options. Do NOT skip because the task seems "simple" or "obvious" — the user decides:

• "/domain-analysis (Recommended)" — Analyze domain model from business evaluation
• "/plan" — If ready to plan implementation
• "Skip, continue manually" — user decides

[IMPORTANT] Use TaskCreate to break ALL work into small tasks BEFORE starting.

External Memory: For complex or lengthy work (research, analysis, scan, review), write intermediate findings and final results to a report file in plans/reports/ — prevents context loss and serves as deliverable.

Evidence Gate: MANDATORY IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION — every claim, finding, and recommendation requires file:line proof or traced evidence with confidence percentage (>80% to act, <80% must verify first).

AI Mistake Prevention — Failure modes to avoid on every task:

Check downstream references before deleting. Deleting components causes documentation and code staleness cascades. Map all referencing files before removal. Verify AI-generated content against actual code. AI hallucinates APIs, class names, and method signatures. Always grep to confirm existence before documenting or referencing. Trace full dependency chain after edits. Changing a definition misses downstream variables and consumers derived from it. Always trace the full chain. Trace ALL code paths when verifying correctness. Confirming code exists is not confirming it executes. Always trace early exits, error branches, and conditional skips — not just happy path. When debugging, ask "whose responsibility?" before fixing. Trace whether bug is in caller (wrong data) or callee (wrong handling). Fix at responsible layer — never patch symptom site. Assume existing values are intentional — ask WHY before changing. Before changing any constant, limit, flag, or pattern: read comments, check git blame, examine surrounding code. Verify ALL affected outputs, not just the first. Changes touching multiple stacks require verifying EVERY output. One green check is not all green checks. Holistic-first debugging — resist nearest-attention trap. When investigating any failure, list EVERY precondition first (config, env vars, DB names, endpoints, DI registrations, data preconditions), then verify each against evidence before forming any code-layer hypothesis. Surgical changes — apply the diff test. Bug fix: every changed line must trace directly to the bug. Don't restyle or improve adjacent code. Enhancement task: implement improvements AND announce them explicitly. Surface ambiguity before coding — don't pick silently. If request has multiple interpretations, present each with effort estimate and ask. Never assume all-records, file-based, or more complex path.

Critical Thinking Mindset — Apply critical thinking, sequential thinking. Every claim needs traced proof, confidence >80% to act. Anti-hallucination: Never present guess as fact — cite sources for every claim, admit uncertainty freely, self-check output for errors, cross-reference independently, stay skeptical of own confidence — certainty without evidence root of all hallucination.

MUST ATTENTION apply critical thinking — every claim needs traced proof, confidence >80% to act. Anti-hallucination: never present guess as fact.

MUST ATTENTION apply AI mistake prevention — holistic-first debugging, fix at responsible layer, surface ambiguity before coding, re-read files after compaction.

Prompt-Enhance Closing Anchors

IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION follow declared step order for this skill; NEVER skip, reorder, or merge steps without explicit user approval IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION for every step/sub-skill call: set in_progress before execution, set completed after execution IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION every skipped step MUST include explicit reason; every completed step MUST include concise evidence IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION if Task tools unavailable, maintain an equivalent step-by-step plan tracker with synchronized statuses

Closing Reminders

MANDATORY IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION break work into small todo tasks using TaskCreate BEFORE starting. MANDATORY IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION validate decisions with user via AskUserQuestion — never auto-decide. MANDATORY IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION add a final review todo task to verify work quality.

[TASK-PLANNING] Before acting, analyze task scope and systematically break it into small todo tasks and sub-tasks using TaskCreate.

[IMPORTANT] Analyze how big the task is and break it into many small todo tasks systematically before starting — this is very important.