crypto-derivatives

name	crypto-derivatives
description	Crypto-derivatives strategies — perpetual funding-rate arbitrage, futures term-structure contango/backwardation trading, and option volatility-smile / Greeks analysis.
category	crypto

Crypto-Derivatives Strategies

Overview

Covers three major crypto-derivatives strategy directions: perpetual funding-rate arbitrage, futures term-structure trading, and options strategies (volatility trading). The main exchanges are OKX and Deribit.

Perpetual Funding-Rate Arbitrage

Funding-Rate Mechanism

Perpetual contracts have no expiry and rely on the funding rate to anchor prices to spot:

Funding rate > 0: longs pay shorts (strong bullish sentiment)
Funding rate < 0: shorts pay longs (strong bearish sentiment)

Settlement frequency: OKX settles every 8 hours (00:00 / 08:00 / 16:00 UTC)
Annualized return = funding rate × 3 × 365

Arbitrage Strategies

Positive carry arbitrage (funding rate > 0):
  Long spot + short perpetual = net delta close to zero
  Return source: collect funding every 8 hours

Reverse carry arbitrage (funding rate < 0, less common):
  Short spot (borrow coin and sell) + long perpetual
  Return source: collect funding every 8 hours

Funding-Rate Signals

Funding Rate (8h)	Annualized	Market Sentiment	Strategy Signal
> 0.1%	> 109%	Extreme greed	Short signal (rate is unsustainable)
0.03-0.1%	33-109%	Bullish bias	Positive carry arbitrage is attractive
0.01-0.03%	11-33%	Normal bullish	Positive carry arbitrage is tradable
-0.01~0.01%	-11~11%	Neutral	No arbitrage opportunity
< -0.01%	< -11%	Bearish bias	Reverse carry arbitrage or stop-loss
< -0.1%	< -109%	Extreme panic	Long signal (rate is unsustainable)

Arbitrage Risk Control

Risk points:
1. Insufficient margin: the derivatives leg requires margin, and extreme moves can liquidate the account
2. Funding reversal: a positive rate can suddenly turn negative, making the arbitrage unprofitable
3. Basis volatility: changes in the spot-futures basis can cause floating losses
4. Exchange risk: withdrawal limits, downtime, liquidation-mechanism differences

Risk parameters:
- Leverage: no more than 3x (arbitrage does not need high leverage)
- Margin ratio: keep >50% (far from liquidation)
- Single-coin allocation: <30% (diversification)
- Stop-loss: close when floating loss exceeds expected return over 3 months

Term-Structure Trading

Basic Concepts

Term structure = futures price curve across different expiries

Contango: far month > near month > spot
  - Meaning: market expects higher future prices
  - Common in bull markets or normal market conditions

Backwardation: far month < near month < spot
  - Meaning: market expects lower future prices or spot shortage
  - Common in bear markets or after extreme events

Term-Structure Metrics

def term_structure_spread(spot_price, futures_prices: dict) -> dict:
    """
    Args:
        spot_price: Spot price
        futures_prices: {expiry: price}, for example {'2026-06': 105000, '2026-09': 107000}
    Returns:
        Basis, annualized basis, and structure type
    """
    results = {}
    for expiry, price in futures_prices.items():
        days_to_expiry = (pd.Timestamp(expiry) - pd.Timestamp.now()).days
        basis = (price - spot_price) / spot_price
        annualized = basis / days_to_expiry * 365
        results[expiry] = {
            'basis': basis,
            'annualized_basis': annualized,
            'days': days_to_expiry,
        }
    return results

Trading Strategies

Strategy	Action	Applicable Environment	Risk
Cash-and-Carry	Long spot + short futures	Significant contango (annualized >15%)	Exchange risk
Calendar Spread	Long near month + short far month	Expect contango convergence	Basis widening
Reverse Calendar	Short near month + long far month	Expect backwardation convergence	Basis reversal

Historical Regularities of BTC Term Structure

- Bull market: contango annualized 15-40%, quarterly futures premium 5-10%
- Bear market: backwardation or contango annualized <5%
- Around halving: contango usually widens
- Extreme crashes: brief backwardation (such as March 12 and May 19)

Options Strategies

Overview of the Crypto Options Market

Exchange	Underlyings	Characteristics
Deribit	BTC / ETH	Largest options exchange, >80% market share
OKX	BTC / ETH	Second largest, liquidity still growing
Binance	BTC / ETH	Weaker liquidity

Basic Greeks

Greek	Meaning	Crypto-Specific Characteristic
Delta	Change in option price for a 1% move in the underlying	BTC is highly volatile, so Delta changes quickly
Gamma	Rate of change of Delta	ATM options have the highest Gamma
Theta	Time decay (per day)	Crypto trades 7x24, so there are no weekends off
Vega	Impact of a 1% move in implied volatility	BTC IV is often 50-120%, far above traditional assets
Rho	Rate sensitivity	In crypto markets, the rate proxy is DeFi yield

Volatility Smile / Skew

Characteristics of the BTC option volatility surface:
1. Smile: IV of OTM puts and OTM calls is both higher than ATM IV
2. Skew: usually OTM put IV > OTM call IV (downside-protection demand)
3. Reverse skew: in bull markets, OTM call IV may exceed OTM put IV

25Δ Risk Reversal = IV(25Δ Call) - IV(25Δ Put)
  > 0: bullish skew
  < 0: bearish skew (normal state)
  The larger the absolute value, the steeper the skew

Common Options Strategies

1. Short Straddle

Action: sell ATM call + ATM put simultaneously
Return source: time decay (Theta income)
Risk: large move in the underlying
Applicable when: IV is considered too high and the market is expected to stay range-bound

BTC parameter suggestions:
- Consider selling when IV > 80%
- Expiry: 7-14 days (faster decay)
- Margin: at least 30% of underlying notional

2. Protective Put

Action: hold spot + buy OTM put
Purpose: hedge downside risk
Cost: put premium (about 2-5% of underlying value per month)
Applicable when: protecting profits in a bull market

BTC parameter suggestions:
- Strike: 10-15% below spot
- Expiry: 1-3 months
- Delta: -0.2 to -0.3

3. Iron Butterfly

Action: sell ATM call + sell ATM put + buy OTM call + buy OTM put
Return source: profit when the underlying moves within a narrow range
Risk: limited (protected by OTM options)
Applicable when: low-volatility expectation

Maximum profit = premium sold - premium bought
Maximum loss = wing width - maximum profit

4. Volatility Arbitrage

Action: long / short IV versus realized volatility

Long volatility:
- Buy straddle + Delta hedge
- Applicable when: IV < historical volatility (IV is low)

Short volatility:
- Sell straddle + Delta hedge
- Applicable when: IV > historical volatility (IV is high)

BTC IV reference:
- IV < 40%: extremely low (long volatility)
- IV 40-60%: normal-to-low
- IV 60-80%: normal
- IV 80-120%: elevated (short volatility)
- IV > 120%: extremely high (short volatility, but risk is large)

Analysis Framework

Daily Monitoring Metrics

1. Perpetual funding rate (8h / annualized)
2. BTC quarterly-futures basis
3. 25Δ Risk Reversal
4. ATM implied volatility
5. Option put/call ratio
6. Option open interest

Strategy Selection Decision Tree

Market environment judgment:
├── High funding rate (>0.05%) + high IV (>80%)
│   └── Positive carry arbitrage + short volatility
├── Low funding rate + low IV (<50%)
│   └── Stay out of carry arbitrage + long volatility
├── Significant contango (annualized >20%)
│   └── Cash-and-Carry
└── Backwardation
    └── Reduce exposure / hedge / buy protective puts

Output Format

## Crypto-Derivatives Analysis

### Market Snapshot
| Metric | BTC | ETH |
|------|-----|-----|
| Spot price | $95,000 | $3,200 |
| Perpetual funding (8h) | 0.035% | 0.028% |
| Annualized funding | 38.3% | 30.7% |
| Quarterly basis (annualized) | 18.5% | 15.2% |
| ATM IV (30d) | 65% | 72% |
| 25Δ RR | -3.2% | -4.5% |

### Strategy Suggestions
| Strategy | Direction | Expected Annualized Return | Risk Level |
|------|------|---------|---------|
| BTC funding-rate arbitrage | Short perpetual + long spot | 25-35% | Medium |
| ETH Calendar Spread | Long near month / short far month | 12-18% | Medium-low |
| BTC Short Strangle | Sell OTM call + put | Collect premium | High |

### Risk Warnings
- ...

Notes

1. This system is for backtest research only: it does not execute live trades; derivatives analysis is for research and backtesting
2. Crypto trades 7x24: Theta decay never stops, unlike traditional options
3. Liquidity concentration: BTC / ETH options are concentrated on Deribit; liquidity in other coins is extremely poor
4. Extreme volatility: 10-20% single-day BTC moves are not rare, so margin management is critical
5. Exchange risk: centralized exchanges can freeze assets or fail; diversify across venues
6. Data acquisition: OKX data is available through the OKX data source, while Deribit requires an additional interface
7. Regulatory risk: regulation of crypto derivatives is tightening across jurisdictions, so strategy compliance must be assessed separately