seat-outlook-maintenance

name	seat-outlook-maintenance
description	Maintain the internal-only constituency outlook ledger. Use when: adding or revising seat outlook labels, rationale, risk factors, or source bundles in research/statewide/constituency-outlooks.json.

Seat Outlook Maintenance

When to Use

• Updating internal constituency outlooks
• Moving a seat from withheld to a conservative label
• Refreshing rationale, risk factors, or source refs after seat-level evidence changes
• Clarifying that the internal ledger stays separate from the seat-local possible-outcome workflow

Output

• Update research/statewide/constituency-outlooks.json

Procedure

1. Read docs/INGESTION_OPERATING_MODEL.md and research/swarm/guardrails.json
2. Confirm the seat has explicit attributable evidence before leaving withheld
3. Use only allowed labels and keep leadingCandidateId optional
4. Require rationale, sourceRefs, and riskFactors for any non-withheld row
5. Keep the surface internal-only; do not write seat outlooks into public/data/
6. If the work belongs in research/constituency-outcomes/ or research/constituency-outcome-reviews/, follow docs/CONSTITUENCY_POSSIBLE_OUTCOME_WORKFLOW.md instead of stretching this ledger

Guardrails

• No deterministic winner language as repo truth
• No opaque score-only outputs
• withheld is the default when evidence is weak or conflicting
• Keep updates seat-local; do not rewrite the whole ledger without a real statewide refresh
• Do not convert the internal ledger into the multi-state public-safe workflow surface

Handoff

• Run npm run check:e2e-lite or validator coverage after outlook edits