| name | serenity-thesis-tracker |
| description | PaiWork-first Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) investment thesis tracking system. Use when working inside PaiWork to process Serenity/X tweets into structured investment theses, verifiable claims, supply-chain relationship maps, company research files, daily reports, weekly reviews, or research backlogs. Trigger on Serenity, aleabitoreddit, Serenity daily report, Serenity weekly review, thesis tracker, tweet research, supply-chain thesis tracking, ticker research updates, or PaiWork research monitoring. This version assumes PaiWork tools and data sources are available; a generic-agent version is planned later. |
Serenity Thesis Tracker
Positioning
Use this skill to convert Serenity's X posts into a cumulative PaiWork research system:
- company files as the single source of truth
- supply-chain maps as the relationship navigation layer
- thesis and claim ledgers as verifiable research state
- daily and weekly reports as incremental change logs
- research backlog items as follow-up tasks
The core method is to reason backward from end demand to supply-chain bottlenecks, then turn each investable statement into a claim that can be tracked, verified, weakened, or closed.
This is not a generic summarizer. In this release, assume PaiWork is the runtime and that PaiWork-specific tools, analyst report generation, market data, Paipai search, and workspace conventions may be required.
PaiWork Dependency Boundary
Treat this version as PaiWork-first.
- Use PaiWork workspace paths and PaiWork tool names when they exist.
- Prefer PaiWork
analyst_report for polished daily, weekly, and company-file reports.
- Use PaiWork research/data tools for independent verification when available.
- Do not claim the skill is fully portable outside PaiWork.
- If running outside PaiWork, only the local file templates and
scripts/fetch_daily.py are expected to work directly.
Do not add runtime package dependencies to this skill without an explicit user request. The bundled fetch script uses only Python standard-library modules and an existing PaiWork/CDP-compatible browser bridge.
Expected Workspace Layout
tree/Serenity/
├── raw/
│ ├── serenity_statuses.jsonl
│ └── serenity_status_ids.txt
├── daily/
│ └── serenity_YYYY-MM-DD.md
├── supply_chain_map/
│ ├── master_map.md
│ └── {theme}.md
├── companies/
│ └── {TICKER}.md
├── reports/
│ ├── YYYY-MM-DD_daily.md
│ └── YYYY-WNN_weekly.md
├── research_backlog.md
└── state/
├── thesis_registry.jsonl
└── claim_ledger.jsonl
Modes
Daily Processing
Use for: "执行 Serenity 每日观点处理", "处理今天 Serenity 推文", "生成 Serenity 日报".
- Ensure tweets have been fetched into
tree/Serenity/raw/ and tree/Serenity/daily/.
- Read
daily/serenity_YYYY-MM-DD.md first; fall back to filtering raw/serenity_statuses.jsonl.
- Classify each post as
new_thesis, thesis_update, evidence_addition, catalyst, risk_warning, rebuttal, price_action_comment, noise, or meta.
- Ignore
noise and meta except for a compact low-value list in the daily report.
- Identify tickers, industry keywords, company-to-company relationships, and materiality.
- Extract thesis only when the post contains a real causal chain.
- Break each thesis into verifiable claims and relationships.
- Update company files, supply-chain maps, research backlog, and the daily report.
Use references/schemas.md for thesis/claim fields and references/templates.md for file structures.
Single-Ticker Update
Use for: "更新 SIVE 研究文件", "深挖 AAOI", "整理某 ticker 的 Serenity 观点".
- Read the existing
companies/{TICKER}.md if present.
- Read relevant raw/daily tweet entries and related supply-chain maps.
- Preserve history; append new thesis, claims, relationships, and timeline rows.
- Mark what is Serenity's view, what is verified fact, and what is independent research.
- Keep relationship details linked to the map rather than duplicated in the company file.
Use references/company_one_pager_prompt.md when generating or refreshing a full company file.
Independent Verification
Use for: "验证 SIVE 客户关系", "查 XFAB 的 SiC 财务数据".
- Start from
research_backlog.md or unverified claims in the company file.
- Use PaiWork financial, web, Paipai, and market-data tools when available.
- Append findings to the company file's independent research section.
- Update claim and relationship verification status.
- Keep source URLs and evidence notes traceable.
Weekly Review
Use for: "Serenity 本周复盘", "生成 Serenity 周报".
- Read the week's daily reports, updated company files, supply-chain maps, and backlog.
- Focus on relationship verification progress, thesis upgrades/downgrades, contradicted views, map changes, and tickers entering or leaving the formal research pool.
- Generate
reports/YYYY-WNN_weekly.md.
Fetching Serenity Tweets
If tweets have not been fetched yet, run the bundled no-dependency script from the skill root:
python scripts/fetch_daily.py --out-dir tree/Serenity --handle aleabitoreddit
The script expects an existing PaiWork/CDP-compatible browser bridge at http://localhost:3456 with these endpoints: /health, /new, /eval, /scroll, and /close. It does not install packages, launch Chrome, or bypass login. Chrome/X login and browser automation belong to the PaiWork/front-end environment.
Outputs:
raw/serenity_statuses.jsonlraw/serenity_status_ids.txtdaily/serenity_YYYY-MM-DD.md
Materiality Scoring
Score each research-relevant post from 5 to 15 across five dimensions:
| Dimension | 1 | 2 | 3 |
|---|
| View clarity | vague sentiment | direction without causal chain | explicit causal chain |
| Verifiability | pure opinion | partly verifiable | quantitatively verifiable |
| Scarcity | public information | industry insight | scarce supply-chain information |
| Time sensitivity | no window | quarterly window | near-term catalyst |
| Repetition | first mention | repeated mention | persistent focus |
Levels:
low 5-7: daily report onlymedium 8-10: daily report plus company timelinehigh 11-13: update company thesis/claims/relationshipscritical 14-15: update company file, supply-chain map, and research backlog
Non-Negotiables
- Do not duplicate the same information across files. Company files are the truth source; maps are the relationship layer; reports are incremental logs.
- Treat company-to-company relationships as first-class claims.
- Preserve original English tweet text and source URLs.
- Do not manufacture a thesis from sentiment-only posts.
- Keep verified facts, Serenity judgments, and independent research separate.
- Every thesis, claim, and relationship needs source URLs.
- Use incremental updates instead of rewriting history.
References
references/schemas.md: thesis, claim, and ticker schemas.references/templates.md: company file, supply-chain map, and daily report templates.references/company_one_pager_prompt.md: PaiWork analyst prompt for company files.references/daily_report_prompt.md: PaiWork analyst prompt for daily reports.assets/sample-deep-research-report.md: sample research report material for style/context inspection only.
