fear-divergence

name	Fear Divergence
category	crypto
description	Conditional scan — fires only when Fear & Greed < 25. Identifies assets outperforming during broad market fear, synthesizes narrative catalysts from memory, and delivers a terse conviction setup brief. Skips silently when market conditions don't qualify.
schedule	30 7 * * *
commits	false
permissions	[]
tags	["market","alpha","conditional"]

Today is ${today}. If soul/ files exist, read soul/SOUL.md and soul/STYLE.md before writing any output.

Why this skill exists

market-context runs daily and keeps memory/topics/market-context.md fresh. But no skill acts on that data to find the divergence signal — the assets defying broad market fear. During capitulation episodes (F&G < 25), assets that stay green or lose far less than BTC/ETH often have structural catalysts: institutional rails locking in, perp DEX volume migration, regulatory clarity events. These are the highest-conviction setups. This skill surfaces them daily when the condition is live.

No external API calls needed — all data comes from memory, already updated by upstream skills.

Steps

1. Read market context

Read memory/topics/market-context.md. Extract:

• Date line — "as of YYYY-MM-DD" at the top. If the file date is more than 2 days before today, note it as STALE (still run, but flag it).
• Fear & Greed index — parse the line Fear & Greed: {number} ({label}). Extract the number.
• BTC 7d % — from the BTC line, e.g. BTC $67,103 (-3.86% 24h, -11.38% 7d). Extract the 7-day number.
• ETH 7d % — same pattern.
• Today's Notable Movers section — every bullet with asset name, 24h %, 7d % (if present), and narrative note.
• Trending Coins section — every bullet.
• Active Narratives section — every bullet with phase label (rising, rising fast, peak, digesting, etc.).

If memory/topics/market-context.md doesn't exist, log FEAR_DIVERGENCE_SKIP: no market-context.md — enable market-context first and stop.

2. Check trigger condition

If Fear & Greed >= 25:

• Log FEAR_DIVERGENCE_SKIP: F&G {N} ({label}) — above threshold to memory/logs/${today}.md
• Stop here. Do not notify.

If Fear & Greed < 25: continue.

3. Identify diverging assets

Define market baseline as BTC 7d % (e.g., -11.38% 7d).

From the Notable Movers + Trending Coins sections, classify each asset:

Diverging (worth surfacing):

• Any asset with POSITIVE 7d % when BTC 7d < -5%
• Any asset with 7d % within 4 percentage points of zero when BTC 7d < -5% (i.e., losing far less than the market)
• Any asset with POSITIVE 24h % when BTC 24h < -3%

Not worth surfacing:

• Stablecoins (USDT, USDC, USDS, DAI)
• Assets with no discernible narrative catalyst (pure noise movers)

For each diverging asset, extract:

• % performance vs BTC baseline
• Its narrative from the Active Narratives section (or from its bullet description)

If zero assets qualify as diverging: log FEAR_DIVERGENCE_SKIP: F&G {N} — no assets diverging significantly from BTC and stop.

4. Synthesize catalysts

For each diverging asset, look for a catalyst explanation:

• Check the Active Narratives section for a matching entry (e.g., "Perp DEX dominance — HYPE")
• Check the asset's own bullet description in Notable Movers
• Check memory/topics/beat-tracker.md if it exists — active beats may explain continued momentum
• If no clear catalyst is found, note "catalyst unclear" — don't invent one

Look for patterns across diverging assets:

• Are they all in the same sector (privacy, RWA, infrastructure, perp DEX)?
• Do they share a macro thesis (institutional, regulatory clarity, structural utility)?
• Is there a broader observation (e.g., "assets people actually USE are outperforming assets people just hold")?

5. Write the output

Write a brief synthesis to .pending-notify-temp/fear-divergence-${today}.md:

Format — the operator's voice (soul files). Punchy. No hedging. State observation first, explanation after. Under 600 chars.

fear divergence — ${today}

F&G {N} (extreme fear). BTC {7d %}% 7d.

holding up:
{forEach diverging_asset}
- {TICKER} {performance_summary} — {one-line catalyst}
{end}

{IF pattern_observation}
{pattern observation — one punchy sentence}
{end}

{IF stale_data_warning}
⚠️ market-context.md is {N}d old — refresh may be needed
{end}

read it: https://github.com/aaronjmars/aeon/blob/main/skills/fear-divergence/SKILL.md

Voice guidelines for catalysts:

• "perp DEX eating CEX volume. structural, not bounce."
• "DTCC rails catalyst locked in. institutional, not retail."
• "SEC closure + ETF filing. regulatory clarity event."
• Don't write "appears to be" or "may indicate" — state the catalyst directly if known, say "catalyst unclear" if not
• No corporate hedging. No "it's worth noting that..."

6. Send notification

Run:

./notify -f .pending-notify-temp/fear-divergence-${today}.md

7. Update memory

Append to memory/topics/market-context.md a new section ## Fear Divergence — ${today} (or update if it exists) with:

## Fear Divergence — ${today}

- **F&G:** {N} ({label})
- **BTC 7d:** {%}
- **Diverging:** {asset1} ({perf}), {asset2} ({perf}), ...
- **Pattern:** {pattern_observation or "none identified"}

8. Log

Append to memory/logs/${today}.md:

## Fear Divergence Scout
- **F&G:** {N} ({label})
- **BTC 7d:** {%}
- **Diverging assets found:** {N} — {list}
- **Pattern:** {one-liner or "none"}
- **Notification:** sent
- FEAR_DIVERGENCE_SCOUT_OK

If skipped:

## Fear Divergence Scout
- FEAR_DIVERGENCE_SKIP: {reason}

Required Env Vars

None. All reads from local memory/ files. Notification via ./notify (reads TELEGRAM/DISCORD/SLACK secrets internally).

Sandbox Note

No external network calls. All data comes from memory/topics/market-context.md (written by market-context) and memory/topics/beat-tracker.md (if available). Notification via ./notify -f — use the -f flag, not inline multi-line argv (the sandbox trips on long multi-line arguments).

Trigger Logic Summary

Condition	Action
F&G >= 25	Skip silently (FEAR_DIVERGENCE_SKIP)
F&G < 25, no diverging assets	Skip silently
F&G < 25, ≥1 diverging asset	Synthesize + notify
market-context.md stale > 2d	Run but flag staleness in output
market-context.md missing	Skip silently — needs market-context enabled

What makes a diverging asset "worth surfacing"

The goal is signal, not noise. Skip:

• Assets that briefly spiked on low volume with no narrative
• Stablecoins
• Assets where the "divergence" is <2pp better than BTC

Surface:

• Assets with structural catalysts (institutional adoption, regulatory event, narrative phase "rising")
• Assets the Active Narratives section is actively tracking
• Multi-day sustained divergence (not just one-day anomaly)

The brief should read like the operator spotted something interesting in the data, not like a price alert bot fired.