| name | strategic-cost-benefit-analysis |
| description | Use when evaluating whether a military action inadvertently strengthens rivals or when analyzing second-order strategic consequences. Based on Hu Yan's advice against attacking Pu — assessing whether success helps your enemies more than yourself and recommending alternatives when it does. |
Strategic Cost-Benefit Analysis
Based on Hu Yan's advice against attacking Pu.
Overview
Before attacking a target, analyze whether success helps or harms your strategic position.
Steps
-
Identify the Target's Strategic Value
- What does the target provide to whom?
- Example: Pu is vital to Wei's independence
-
Analyze Consequences of Success
- If you capture the target, who benefits?
- Will success strengthen a rival?
- Example: Capturing Pu would force Wei to submit to your rival (Wei)
-
Evaluate Secondary Effects
- How will power balance shift?
- Will a weakened party become stronger through consolidation?
-
Consider Ruler's Perception
- Will this action be seen as helping or harming the state?
- Ruler will judge based on outcomes, not intentions
-
Recommend Alternative
- If action harms your interests, propose alternative
- Find way to gain credit without negative consequences
Decision Framework
- If action helps enemy more than you: Do not proceed
- If action strengthens rival state: Do not proceed
- If ruler will blame you for consequences: Do not proceed
Expected Outcomes
- Avoid strategic mistakes
- Maintain ruler's favor
- Prevent unintended strengthening of rivals
Validation
- Map the full chain of consequences: target capture leads to which power shift, which forces which consolidation, which benefits whom — if the chain ends at a rival's gain, do not proceed
- Verify the alternative proposal genuinely serves state interests and is not merely a face-saving inaction plan
- Confirm the ruler's perception has been considered — will the ruler credit you for wisdom in restraint, or blame you for missed opportunity?
