effort-estimator

name	effort-estimator
description	Estimate engineering effort from scope, risk, unknowns, and verification cost. Use when sizing features, splitting work, planning sprints, comparing implementation options, or deciding whether a task is XS through XL; avoid for product value, requirements quality, or business-case analysis.

Effort Estimator

Estimate work from scope, risk, and verification cost.

When to use

• User asks for effort, sizing, sprint planning, or approach comparison.
• Work has enough detail to estimate roughly.
• Scope may need splitting.

Goal

• Give useful size.
• State confidence.
• Expose risk.
• Recommend proceed or split.

Size bands

• XS: <30 LOC, <=1h, high confidence.
• S: 30-100 LOC, 0.5d, high confidence.
• M: 100-200 LOC, <=1d, medium confidence.
• L: 200-400 LOC, 2-3d, low confidence, split recommended.
• XL: >400 LOC, must split.

Modifiers

• New tech or pattern: +50%.
• External dependency: +30%.
• Unclear requirements: +50%.
• Complex testing: +30%.

Formula:

final = base x (1 + sum(modifiers))

Flow

1. Define scope.
2. Estimate changed files and LOC.
3. Check reusable patterns.
4. Apply modifiers.
5. Identify verification cost.
6. Split L or XL.

Common splits

• Foundation.
• API layer.
• UI.
• Integration.
• Tests and hardening.

Output

## Effort Estimate
- Size: [XS/S/M/L/XL]
- Base: [time]
- Final: [adjusted time]
- Confidence: [high/medium/low]

## Why
- Scope: [summary]
- Files: [likely files]
- Modifiers: [applied]
- Verification: [checks/tests]

## Recommendation
- [Proceed or split]