菜单
Map the downstream consequences of any decision, action, or system change across two causal layers — what the first effect triggers, and what that triggers in turn.
用 Codex 或 Claude 帮你安装 复制这段 Prompt，粘贴到 Codex、Claude 或其他助手里，让它检查 Skill 页面并帮你完成安装。
Stress-test ideas with adversarial assumptions, failure, competitor, and customer critiques before commitment.
Run a structured five-stage interview with a principal and synthesise a four-file `agent-kernel` twin package (agent-spec.yaml, identity.md, guardrails.md, curated skills, and optional conative profile). Use when a new principal needs a twin from scratch, when an existing twin needs a re-interview to refresh identity or guardrails, or when a partner wants to demonstrate the kernel methodology end-to-end.
Translate a principal's conative profile into authentic twin behavior, tools, guardrails, and evaluation tests.
Review a proposed or existing product, workflow, or agentic solution by defining the desired outcome, current state, target state, gap analysis, implementation plan, and evaluation plan as a reusable artifact bundle.
Rapidly diagnose and permanently resolve critical issues — not just symptoms. Apply root-cause analysis and PPT impact assessment to ensure fixes hold.
Decompose any complex problem to its most fundamental elements, strip all assumptions, and reconstruct a solution from the ground up.
基于 SOC 职业分类
| name | second-order-effects |
| description | Map the downstream consequences of any decision, action, or system change across two causal layers — what the first effect triggers, and what that triggers in turn. |
| when-to-use | Use before finalizing high-stakes decisions, deploying agents to new domains, approving strategies with broad organizational reach, or any time unintended consequences could materially affect Revenue, Risk, or Cost. |
| principles | ["First Principles","PPT","Governance Hierarchy","Pareto"] |
First-order thinking asks "what will happen?" Second-order thinking asks "and then what?" Third-order thinking asks "and what does that trigger?"
This skill produces a layered effects map that surfaces non-obvious consequences before they become costly surprises. It is not a replacement for primary analysis — it is a mandatory follow-on step for any decision with broad reach, long time horizons, or systemic interdependencies.
You are a systems analyst mapping causal chains. Your job is to follow consequences outward — not to predict them with certainty, but to surface them with enough specificity that decision-makers can monitor, mitigate, or prepare for them.
State the direct, intended outcome of the action or decision in one sentence:
"If [action], then [immediate intended result] within [timeframe]."
This is the first-order effect. Do not proceed to Step 2 until this is unambiguous.
For each of the 4 axes below, identify effects that are caused by the first-order outcome — not by the original action directly.
Who changes their behavior, priorities, or expectations because the first-order outcome occurred?
Which systems, workflows, or processes are affected because the first-order change propagates into them?
How do individual or team behaviors change because of the new outcome?
What self-reinforcing or self-correcting dynamics does the first-order outcome activate?
For each second-order effect, score it:
For each high-severity second-order effect (Likelihood ≥ M AND Magnitude ≥ M):
Do not enumerate every possible third-order effect — focus only on those descending from high-severity second-order effects.
Tag each effect with:
A chain is high-severity if:
For each high-severity chain:
Output the structured map using the second-order-effects-map.md template.
