strategy-diagnosis

name	strategy-diagnosis
description	Use when someone has a business problem, strategic question, or founder challenge they need to think through clearly. Triggers on "I'm stuck on", "should I", "what's wrong with my", "diagnose", "strategy problem", "business problem", "founder problem", "help me think through". Runs structured consulting-style diagnostic lenses to produce a comprehensive analysis.

Strategy Diagnosis

Structured diagnostic pipeline that applies consulting-grade analytical frameworks to any business or strategic problem. Seven lenses, applied sequentially, each building on the last.

When to Use

• Someone describes a business problem and needs clarity
• A founder is stuck and can't see the real issue
• Strategic decision with too many variables
• "I know something's wrong but can't articulate it"
• Need to pressure-test your own thinking

The Pipeline

digraph diagnosis {
  rankdir=TB;
  intake [label="Problem Intake\n(gather raw context)" shape=box];
  clarify [label="1. Clarify\n(find the real question)" shape=box];
  mece [label="2. Decompose\n(MECE breakdown)" shape=box];
  hypotheses [label="3. Hypothesize\n(root cause tree)" shape=box];
  assumptions [label="4. Expose Assumptions\n(verified/unverified/dangerous)" shape=box];
  pressure [label="5. Pressure Test\n(challenge the framing)" shape=box];
  stakeholders [label="6. Map Stakeholders\n(who matters and why)" shape=box];
  synthesis [label="7. Synthesize\n(executive summary)" shape=box];

  intake -> clarify -> mece -> hypotheses -> assumptions -> pressure -> stakeholders -> synthesis;
}

How to Run

Phase 0: Problem Intake

Before any analysis, get the raw material. Ask the user:

"Describe the problem you're facing. Include as much context as you want - the messy version is fine. What's happening, what you've tried, what's frustrating you. Don't worry about structure, that's my job."

If they give a one-liner, probe:

• "What does this look like day-to-day?"
• "How long has this been going on?"
• "What have you already tried?"
• "What happens if you do nothing?"

Do not proceed until you have enough context to work with. A sentence is not enough. You need the messy reality.

Phase 1: Core Question Clarifier

Strip away symptoms, emotions, and noise. Restate their problem as a single, crisp strategic question.

Output format:

CORE QUESTION: [One sentence. The actual decision that needs to be made.]

WHAT I STRIPPED AWAY:
- [Symptom vs. cause distinctions]
- [Emotional framing that was obscuring the real issue]
- [Adjacent problems that are separate concerns]

Present this to the user. Ask: "Does this feel right? Am I seeing the real problem, or did I miss something?"

Do not proceed without confirmation. This is the foundation - if it's wrong, everything downstream is wrong.

Phase 2: MECE Decomposition

Break the confirmed core question into mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive components.

Rules:

• No overlaps between buckets (mutually exclusive)
• No gaps - every aspect of the problem fits somewhere (collectively exhaustive)
• 3-5 buckets is the sweet spot. More than 6 means you're too granular.

Output format:

COMPONENT BREAKDOWN:

1. [Bucket name]: [What this contains and why it's distinct]
2. [Bucket name]: [What this contains and why it's distinct]
3. [Bucket name]: [What this contains and why it's distinct]
...

EXHAUSTIVENESS CHECK: [What would fall through the cracks if any bucket were removed?]

Phase 3: Hypothesis Tree

For each MECE bucket, generate the most likely root cause hypotheses.

Output format:

HYPOTHESIS TREE:

Bucket 1: [name]
  H1a: [Hypothesis]
    - Evidence FOR: [what you'd expect to see if true]
    - Evidence AGAINST: [what you'd expect to see if false]
    - How to test: [cheapest way to validate]
  H1b: [Hypothesis]
    ...

Bucket 2: [name]
  H2a: ...

Rank hypotheses within each bucket by plausibility given the context provided. Bold the most likely candidate across all buckets.

Phase 4: Assumption Exposure

Surface every assumption embedded in the problem framing, the user's context, and the hypotheses.

Classify each as:

• Verified: Evidence exists. State the evidence.
• Unverified: Plausible but untested. Flag what test would verify it.
• Dangerous: If wrong, the entire strategy collapses. These get special attention.

Output format:

ASSUMPTIONS:

DANGEROUS (strategy-collapsing if wrong):
- [Assumption]: Why it's dangerous. How to verify.

UNVERIFIED (plausible but untested):
- [Assumption]: What test would confirm/deny.

VERIFIED (evidence exists):
- [Assumption]: Evidence.

Phase 5: Diagnosis Pressure Test

Now attack your own analysis. Play the role of a skeptical senior partner.

Challenge:

• Is the core question actually the right question?
• Are the MECE buckets truly exhaustive, or is there a blind spot?
• Which hypothesis are you most biased toward, and why?
• What's the most uncomfortable alternative explanation?
• What would a competitor or adversary say about this framing?

Output format:

PRESSURE TEST:

BLIND SPOTS IDENTIFIED:
- [What the analysis might be missing]

BIAS CHECK:
- [Where confirmation bias or anchoring might be at play]

STRONGEST COUNTER-ARGUMENT:
- [The best case against the leading hypothesis]

REFRAME OPPORTUNITY:
- [An entirely different way to look at the problem, if one exists]

Phase 6: Stakeholder Impact Map

Map the human landscape around this problem.

Output format:

STAKEHOLDER MAP:

MUST CHANGE BEHAVIOR:
- [Who]: What behavior needs to change. What motivates them.

MUST BUY IN:
- [Who]: Why their buy-in matters. What they care about.

LIKELY TO RESIST:
- [Who]: Why they'd resist. What would neutralize resistance.

AFFECTED BUT NOT INVOLVED:
- [Who]: How they're impacted. Whether that matters.

Phase 7: Executive Synthesis

Compress the entire analysis into a one-page executive summary.

Output format:

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

CORE QUESTION: [From Phase 1]

KEY COMPONENTS: [3-5 bullets from Phase 2]

LEADING HYPOTHESIS: [From Phase 3, with confidence level]

CRITICAL ASSUMPTIONS TO TEST: [Top 2-3 from Phase 4]

BIGGEST BLIND SPOT: [From Phase 5]

KEY STAKEHOLDER MOVE: [The single most important stakeholder action from Phase 6]

RECOMMENDED NEXT STEP: [One concrete action to take in the next 48 hours]

WHAT CHANGES EVERYTHING: [The one thing that, if true, would require a complete rethink]

Pacing

• Present each phase's output before moving to the next
• Invite brief reactions ("Does this track?" / "Anything surprise you?") but don't turn each phase into a long discussion
• The whole pipeline should feel like momentum, not a committee meeting
• If the user wants to drill into one phase, do it, then resume the pipeline

When to Stop Early

• If Phase 1 reveals the problem is actually simple and the answer is obvious, say so. Don't run 7 phases to justify a one-sentence answer.
• If the user realizes during any phase that they already know what to do, celebrate that and stop.

Common Mistakes

• Starting analysis before getting enough context: Phase 0 matters. Don't skip it.
• Accepting the user's problem framing uncritically: Phase 1 exists because people often describe symptoms, not causes.
• MECE buckets that overlap: If you can't clearly explain why two buckets are distinct, merge them.
• Hypotheses without testability: Every hypothesis needs a "how to test" or it's just speculation.
• Skipping the pressure test: Phase 5 is where intellectual honesty lives. Don't phone it in.