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Use when a conclusion feels obvious, when debugging why two people see the same facts differently, when "clearly" or "obviously" appears in reasoning, or when tracing how a belief was formed from raw data. Applies Chris Argyris's Ladder of Inference.
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基于 SOC 职业分类
Use when tempted to say "I'm being objective", when attributing others' views to bias while trusting your own introspection, or after learning about a bias and concluding it doesn't apply to you. Applies Pronin, Lin & Ross (2002) — the bias blind spot and the introspection illusion.
Use when stating confidence ("I'm sure", "definitely", "99%"), giving confidence intervals, making probabilistic claims, or reviewing a track record of predictions. Applies overconfidence calibration research (Lichtenstein & Fischhoff; Alpert & Raiffa) — subjective certainty systematically exceeds accuracy.
Use before deleting code, removing a check, simplifying a process, dropping a config flag, or removing anything that "serves no purpose" — especially in unfamiliar or legacy systems. Applies Chesterton's Fence (G.K. Chesterton, 1929): don't remove it until you know why it's there.
Use when evidence seems to confirm an existing belief, when research keeps agreeing with the hypothesis, when interpreting ambiguous data, or when a first explanation feels satisfying. Applies Lord, Lepper & Preston (1984) — the one debiasing instruction shown to work: consider the opposite.
Use when writing docs, error messages, onboarding, tutorials, API designs, UX copy, or teaching — or when something you built seems self-explanatory. Applies the curse of knowledge (Camerer, Loewenstein & Weber 1989; Newton's tappers-and-listeners 1990): expertise makes you unable to simulate not-knowing.
Use when operating in an unfamiliar domain, when something "looks right" but hasn't been verified, when confidence is high without external checks, or when evaluating one's own competence at a task. Applies Kruger & Dunning (1999) — the skills needed to perform are the skills needed to judge performance.
| name | blind-ladder-of-inference |
| description | Use when a conclusion feels obvious, when debugging why two people see the same facts differently, when "clearly" or "obviously" appears in reasoning, or when tracing how a belief was formed from raw data. Applies Chris Argyris's Ladder of Inference. |
Chris Argyris (first published form: Reasoning, Learning, and Action, 1982; the familiar 7-rung version popularized in The Fifth Discipline Fieldbook, Senge, Ross et al., 1994): between raw observable data and the action you take, you climb an invisible ladder —
Two blind spots: the climb is instant and unconscious, and the reflexive loop — your existing beliefs control which data you select at step 2, so every trip up the ladder reinforces the last one. You experience your conclusions as "just seeing what's there."
| Rung smell | Check |
|---|---|
| "Obviously / clearly / of course" | Descend — which rung makes it obvious? |
| Conclusion arrived instantly | Selection bias at rung 2 — list unselected data |
| Same data, different conclusions | Compare ladders rung by rung, not conclusions |
| Belief older than current evidence | Reflexive loop — re-select from raw data |
