pdp-confidence-update

name	pdp-confidence-update
description	Use ONLY when Nico explicitly invokes it (typically via /pdp-confidence-update) to write, prepare, or reconstruct the weekly PDP confidence update for a project channel. Do NOT trigger automatically from general Slack/status questions. Reconstructs the channel since the last `!pdp progress` post and drafts a ready-to-post update in Nico's house style.

PDP Confidence Update

Reconstruct what happened in a PDP project Slack channel since the last confidence update, then draft a ready-to-post !pdp progress N update in the house style. Default project: #prj-pdp-3462-real-time-agent-visibility (channel C0AH08C7UA2) — confirm if invoked for another.

The confidence update is stakeholder- and team-facing, and it is a coordination tool, not just a status readout: it can carry direct asks (@-mentions) and use the confidence number itself as a lever (see "Confidence as a lever").

This skill is chosen deliberately (slash), never auto-run.

See example.md (in this skill dir) for a real annotated run — the reconstruction-doc skeleton plus a gold-standard posted update showing inline issue links, an @-mention CTA, and confidence-as-a-lever. Read it when you want a concrete model of the output; the steps below are the abstract procedure.

Step 0 — Lock the variables first (grill)

Before reading anything, resolve these with the user. If the plan is fuzzy or the user wants it, invoke the grill-me skill to walk the decision tree; otherwise confirm inline:

1. Iteration in scope — name, date range, and which release it feeds (e.g. "July M1, Jun 30–Jul 13, → 8.10.0-alpha4").
2. Baseline — the last !pdp progress N actually posted (ask for the permalink, or find it — Step 1).
3. Framing — does the rating track epic/project confidence or this-iteration delivery? This changes the number. Nico rates epic/project. Do not assume — confirm.
4. Sources — Slack channel is the spine. Confirm Slack MCP is authenticated (/mcp); use Glean only as secondary, subject to the anti-hallucination rule below.
5. Output — reconstruction doc + ready-to-post draft (default), or reconstruction only.

Step 1 — Find the baseline & recall the last run

• Latest !pdp progress N in the channel (posted by the "Weekly PDP epic update" bot; CloudBot mirrors it to product-hub#3462). Read its rationale in full — the new update must not contradict it. Reconstruct forward from its timestamp.
• Read the most recent doc in previous-runs/ (this skill dir). It holds the full reasoning behind the last update — why risks were rated as they were, what was deferred, the number deliberation, and the "Actual outcome" note (what was really posted, since Nico often edits the number/adds links). The terse Slack post won't have any of this. Use it for continuity: carry forward open risks, check whether flagged items resolved, and don't re-litigate settled framing.

Step 2 — Reconstruct the window (baseline → now)

• Read the channel verbatim over the window (slack_read_channel with oldest=<baseline ts>).
• Read the substantive threads: daily-sync notes, design/technical discussion threads, QA updates, status posts. Pull PR/issue numbers and states from verbatim messages.
• Verify the load-bearing claims against artifacts (PR/issue state, TestRail, release tags): Did the code freeze deliver? Did the release ship? What actually merged vs. slipped?

Step 3 — Anti-hallucination rule (CRITICAL — do not skip)

The daily-sync "Quick recap / Summary" blocks (and Glean recaps) are AI-generated and have invented facts — past runs produced a fake "medical leave" and fake "on-call" that reached a draft before Nico caught them. Therefore:

• Never assert a recap-only claim — especially capacity, leave, dates, ownership — without a verbatim human message, a real artifact, or Nico's confirmation. Mark unverified items [UNVERIFIED] in the reconstruction and ask Nico before they enter a stakeholder post.
• Two people with confusingly similar names — keep them distinct: Dmitri Nikonov (connectors) vs Dmytro "Dima" Melnychuk (engine).

Step 4 — Write the reconstruction doc

Save the doc as previous-runs/YYYY-MM-DD.md in this skill dir (never in the working repo) — this is the durable artifact and doubles as next run's Step 1 input, so write it here from the start rather than drafting elsewhere and moving it later. Include: baseline found · what happened since · risks/blockers/capacity · confidence signals (positive / negative) · open questions & ambiguities · confidence recommendation. Write it before the final draft.

Archive the outcome for the next run. After the update is posted, append an "Actual outcome (posted)" section to this same file — the number actually posted (Nico may change it), how it was framed, links/mentions added, and continuity notes (new baseline, risks to carry forward, items to check next time). This is what Step 1 reads back.

Step 5 — Confidence number

Use the rubric (see reference below) against the chosen framing. Recommend a number with explicit reasoning, but Nico sets the final number. Show the 3-vs-4 (or N-vs-N±1) trade-off honestly, mapping the situation to the rubric wording line by line. If dropping after a delivered milestone, name it as an honest reassessment of the road ahead, not a regression, so stakeholders don't misread the digit.

Confidence as a lever. The number is also a negotiation tool. Nico has deliberately posted a lower number to force a decision (e.g. drop to 3 to push PM to align on an Alpha 5 slip), pairing it with an explicit clause: "If the Alpha 5 slip is agreed with PM, confidence increases back to 4." When the rating is genuinely borderline, ask whether it should be used this way.

Step 6 — Draft the ready-to-post update

House style — !pdp progress N then these sections (see template below): 🎯 Context · ❓ Why this confidence rating? · ✔️ What has been achieved? · ⏩ What happens next? · ❗ Risks and mitigations (each risk gets a ◦ → Mitigation: line) · posted by <@UTT0CLCVB|Nico Korthout>.

• Link issues inline, even in stakeholder text — <https://github.com/camunda/camunda/issues/NNNNN|short label> — so readers can drill in. Gather the real issue numbers from the reconstruction.
• @-mention people with a direct CTA where the update needs someone to act or align.
• Keep it tight and stakeholder-readable; lead "Why this rating?" with the honest driver of the number.

Step 7 — Hand off; do not post

Append the draft to the reconstruction doc and present it. Nico posts it himself (he often makes final edits — number, links, mentions). Do not post to Slack unless explicitly asked.

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Reference: confidence rubric (1–5)

Verbatim for the two that matter most in practice:

• 3 — On track, but with caveats: Most risks and uncertainties assessed. Capacity is available but may be constrained. Challenges being actively addressed with some unknowns.
• 4 — Minor risks, under control: Minor risks and all under control. Capacity and priorities aligned for delivery within the expected timeframe.

Scale runs 1 (lowest / serious jeopardy) to 5 (highest / near-certain). Confirm exact wording for 1, 2, 5 from the PDP rubric if a rating hinges on them.

Reference: house-style post template

!pdp progress N

:dart: *Context*
Weekly project update, directed at stakeholders and project members.

:question: *Why this confidence rating?*
<1 paragraph. Lead with the honest driver of the number. State what was delivered, then why it holds/rises/drops. If used as a lever, include the "increases back to N if X is agreed" clause.>

:heavy_check_mark: *What has been achieved?*
_<one-line headline of the delivered value>_
• <bullet, with issue links where useful>
• ...

:fast_forward: *What happens next?*
• <workstreams, with issue links>
• ...

:exclamation: *Risks and mitigations*
• <risk>
    :black_small_square: → Mitigation: <mitigation; tie to how/when confidence would change>
• ...

_posted by_ <@UTT0CLCVB|Nico Korthout>

Reference: known facts

• Default channel: #prj-pdp-3462-real-time-agent-visibility = C0AH08C7UA2.
• Nico's Slack user id: UTT0CLCVB.
• Posting mechanism: the !pdp progress N command is picked up by the "Weekly PDP epic update" bot; a CloudBot reply mirrors the update as a comment on camunda/product-hub#3462.