forecast-rollup

name	forecast-rollup
description	Weekly HubSpot pipeline-to-forecast rollup — weights every open deal by its own HubSpot stage probability, rolls the total up by stage, rep, and segment ({{segment_property}}) against {{quarterly_quota}}, and flags deals slipping the quarter and other forecast risk before posting to {{forecast_channel}}. Read-only; never changes a deal's amount, close date, stage, or owner.

Turn HubSpot's open pipeline into a real weekly forecast instead of a spreadsheet rebuilt the day before the call. A weekly cron spawns a fresh session with read-only access to HubSpot; this skill weights every open deal by the probability HubSpot already has configured on its own stage, rolls the weighted total up by stage, rep, and segment, compares it to quota, and calls out the deals that put the number at risk.

Proactive and read-only; every run recomputes the whole quarter's forecast from HubSpot's current state — there is no carryover between weeks.

- The weekly cron fires the sales-forecast rollup. - A human asks for the current forecast, or why a specific deal was flagged as slipping or at risk.

Step 1 — Pull every open deal (read-only)

Via the HubSpot connector, pull every deal not in a closed-won or closed-lost stage: amount, dealstage, close date, owner (rep), pipeline, and the {{segment_property}} property used for the segment rollup. Also pull deals that closed won so far this quarter — they count toward the forecast at full value.

Step 2 — Pull each stage's own probability (read-only)

Pull the pipeline/stage configuration from HubSpot — every stage already carries a win-probability weight the team itself configured. Use that weight directly. Never hardcode or assume a probability; a team's own calibration of its stages is the whole point of weighting by stage.

Step 3 — Determine the current quarter window

Compute the current calendar quarter's start and end from today's date. An open deal counts toward this quarter's forecast if its close date falls inside that window; a closed-won deal counts if it closed inside the window.

Step 4 — Weight and roll up

For every in-quarter open deal: weighted_amount = amount × stage_probability. Total forecast = sum of this quarter's closed-won amounts (already in the bag) + sum of weighted amounts across this quarter's open deals. Roll that same weighted total up three ways:

• By stage — weighted amount per stage, so the team sees where the forecast is concentrated.
• By rep — weighted amount per deal owner, so each rep's forecasted contribution is visible against their own book.
• By segment — weighted amount per {{segment_property}} value.

Step 5 — Compare to quota

attainment = total_forecast / {{quarterly_quota}}. Report the total forecast, the quota, the attainment percentage, and the dollar gap (positive or negative) alongside the breakdown from Step 4.

Step 6 — Flag deals slipping the quarter

A deal is slipping when either is true:

Condition	Why it's slipping
Close date already in the past, deal still open	The date has already come and gone without closing — it will push into next quarter (or later) unless the rep updates it
Close date inside this quarter, but the deal's current stage is early/mid and there isn't enough runway left in the quarter to realistically move through the remaining stages	The date on file isn't credible given where the deal actually sits

List every slipping deal with its owner, amount, stage, and close date.

Step 7 — Flag other forecast risk

Independently of Step 6, flag a deal as at risk when it is large relative to the rest of the in-quarter pipeline (e.g. well above the median in-quarter deal size) and shows either:

• No logged activity in a while relative to the deal's stage and size, or
• No stage movement for a length of time that's long relative to how long deals normally sit in that stage.

A deal can be both slipping and at risk; list it under both if so.

Step 8 — Post the forecast

Post one message to {{forecast_channel}}: the total weighted forecast vs {{quarterly_quota}} with attainment percentage, the breakdown by stage, by rep, and by segment, the list of slipping deals, and the list of other at-risk deals. Post exactly once per run — this is a fresh session, so there is no prior forecast to diff against; the whole thing is recomputed and reposted every week.

- **Read-only, always.** The HubSpot connector is read-only. Never write to a deal's amount, close date, stage, or owner, even if the credential would technically allow it. - **One output.** The Slack post to {{forecast_channel}} is the only thing that leaves the sandbox. No edits to HubSpot, no direct messages to reps. - **No memory between runs.** Each run is a fresh session; recompute the quarter's forecast from HubSpot's current state rather than assuming anything from the prior week's post. - **Weight from HubSpot's own configuration.** Stage probabilities come from the team's own pipeline setup in HubSpot, never a hardcoded assumption. - **Scoped secrets.** HubSpot access is brokered server-side through the connector; no raw credential is ever pasted into chat. - **People decide, not the agent.** The forecast reports the number and flags the risk; reps and sales management decide what to do about any deal.