| compatibility | Python 3.8+, standard library only. No network. No third-party packages. |
| description | Assesses the Bangladesh (DSE) macro regime — policy rate, FX reserves, inflation, BDT, politics, regulation — and emits a risk multiplier and regime label (risk_on/neutral/cautious/risk_off) that scales risk appetite across signals. Use when the user asks about the market regime, macro backdrop, "is now a risk-on or risk-off market", rate/reserve/inflation impact, or wants a macro multiplier to feed signal-synthesizer or risk-manager. |
| license | Apache-2.0 |
| metadata | {"author":"stock-buddy","github-path":"skills/macro-regime","github-pinned":"main","github-ref":"refs/heads/main","github-repo":"https://github.com/kuntal-r-d/my-skills","github-tree-sha":"5744f36e50f60472a399e3b0b0c3fa215a89297b","mode":["momentum","investment"],"prd_refs":["PRD-002:REQ-020"],"version":"0.1.0"} |
| name | macro-regime |
Macro Regime
When to use
Activate when a user wants the macro read on the Dhaka Stock Exchange: "what's the
market regime?", "is this a risk-on environment?", "how do rates and reserves affect
risk?", "give me a macro multiplier". This is the Macro Agent (PRD-002 REQ-020). Its
risk multiplier is meant to be consumed downstream by signal-synthesizer (to scale
the composite score) and risk-manager (to scale position sizing).
What it does
Reads the shared contract's macro block and computes a single risk multiplier
in [0.5, 1.2], starting from 1.0 (neutral) and adjusting for each factor:
- Policy rate — tight money (>=9%) lowers the multiplier; accommodative raises it.
- Inflation — above 8% lowers it (real-return erosion, tightening risk).
- FX reserves trend —
falling lowers it (import-cover stress, BDT pressure);
rising raises it; stable is neutral.
- Politics —
crisis/tense lower it; stable raises it.
- Regulatory —
floor_prices/tightening lower it; normal is neutral.
The clamped multiplier maps to a regime label and to a normalised score in
[-1, +1]. Output is a Thinking Card (see suite README).
How to run
python3 scripts/regime.py --input data.json --pretty
cat data.json | python3 scripts/regime.py
Reads macro (required) and optional mode/ticker/as_of. Returns score
(-1..+1), confidence, rating (regime label), key_metrics.risk_multiplier,
per-factor drivers, plain-language reasoning, and flags.
Try it now with the shared fixture:
python3 scripts/regime.py --input ../_fixtures/sample_input.json --pretty
Interpreting output
rating: risk_on (mult >=1.05), neutral (0.85–1.05), cautious (0.70–0.85),
risk_off (<0.70).key_metrics.risk_multiplier is the value downstream skills multiply into their
risk budget — e.g. risk-manager sizes positions at base_risk * risk_multiplier.flags: stale_macro appears when one or more macro fields are missing and
confidence is capped accordingly — never a silent drop.
Notes
Factor weights, the multiplier→regime mapping, the score mapping, and how downstream
skills consume the multiplier are documented in references/REGIME.md.
Output is educational analysis only, never financial advice.
