stg-sizing-markets

name	stg-sizing-markets
description	Calculates market opportunity with TAM/SAM/SOM using dual methods and timing analysis. Use when researching market size during BUILD phase 1 or refreshing market data during CHALLENGE.
serves	strategist
domain	market-analysis
affects	problem-hypothesis, segment-hypothesis
depends-on	none
produces	tier-labeled market sizing evidence for hypothesis register

Market Sizing

Calculate market opportunity with TAM/SAM/SOM and timing analysis. All figures are range-based, tier-labeled, and source-cited.

Procedure

Step 1: Load Context [S]

Read governor input: business mode (VENTURE/BOOTSTRAP/HYBRID), constraints (budget, team, timeline), problem space description.

Produce: research parameters (industry, geography, segment filters).

Gate: context_loaded: bool -- mode identified, problem space described.

• Pass: Step 2.
• Fail: Cannot proceed without mode and problem space. Report missing inputs.

Step 2: Calculate TAM Using Both Methods [S]

Read: research parameters.

WebSearch for industry reports (Gartner, Forrester, IBISWorld, Statista, Grand View Research).

Top-down: Industry size x relevant segment percentage. Cite specific report, publisher, date, figure.

Bottom-up: Total potential customers x average revenue per customer. Cite customer count source and revenue assumption separately.

If methods differ >50%, investigate the discrepancy and report both with reconciliation attempt.

Produce: TAM range [low, high] with sources. Each figure labeled T1 (from published report) or T2 (calculated from multiple sources).

Gate: tam_calculated: bool -- two methods attempted, range produced, sources cited with dates.

• Pass: Step 3.
• Fail: If no reports found, widen search terms (adjacent industry, broader category). If still nothing, report: "TAM data insufficient -- mark as T3 assumption" and provide best available estimate.

Step 3: Calculate SAM [S]

Read: TAM range, segment filters from context.

Apply filters sequentially to TAM:

• Geographic filter: reduce by geography relevance (cite source for geographic distribution)
• Segment filter: reduce by target segment proportion (cite source)
• Technical filter: reduce by technology compatibility requirements
• Vertical filter: reduce by industry vertical if applicable

Document each filter: what it is, reduction percentage, source, tier label.

Produce: SAM range with filter chain documented. Label T2 (derived through filtering).

Gate: sam_calculated: bool -- at least 2 filters applied, each with documented rationale and reduction ratio.

• Pass: Step 4.
• Fail: If SAM reduction is <20% of TAM, review filters. At minimum geographic, segment, and technical filters should apply. If genuinely broad, document why.

Step 4: Calculate SOM [S]

Read: SAM range, constraints (resources, timeline, team size).

SOM = SAM x realistic capture rate in 12-24 months.

Capture rate justified by: analogous company benchmarks, channel capacity constraints, team size limitations. Most startups capture <1% of SAM in year 1.

Produce: SOM range. Label T2-T3 (capture rate is hypothesis).

Gate: som_calculated: bool -- capture rate justified with benchmark or analogy, not asserted.

• Pass: Step 5.
• Fail: If capture rate >5% of SAM in year 1 without evidence of existing traction, reduce or justify with specific precedent.

Step 5: Assess Market Timing [K-grounded]

Grounded in: industry data from Step 2, competitive landscape signals.

Evaluate timing signals:

• Technology readiness: is enabling technology mature or emerging?
• Regulatory shifts: new regulations creating demand or removing barriers?
• Behavioral changes: shifts in how the segment works that create openings?
• Competitive density: crowded (late), sparse (early or no market), moderate (potentially right)?

Score: early, right time, late, too late. Each assessment cites specific evidence.

Produce: timing assessment with evidence. Label T2.

Gate: timing_assessed: bool -- at least 2 timing signals evaluated with cited evidence.

• Pass: Step 6.
• Fail: If no timing signals found, note: "Timing assessment inconclusive -- no strong signals in either direction."

Step 6: Mode-Specific Validation [R]

Read: all calculations, business mode.

Mode	Check	Threshold
VENTURE	TAM size	>$1B
VENTURE	Growth rate	>15% annually
VENTURE	Timing	Not "too late"
BOOTSTRAP	SOM x estimated ARPU	> operating costs within 6 months
BOOTSTRAP	Niche viability	SOM supports sustainable business even if small

Flag violations explicitly: which threshold failed, by how much, what it means.

Produce: mode validation result with specific concerns if any.

Gate: validation_complete: bool -- all mode-relevant thresholds checked, results documented.

• Pass: Done. Market sizing notes ready for register integration.
• Fail: If a threshold fails, report it as a finding (not a blocker). The strategist decides how to handle threshold violations.

Quality Criteria

• TAM calculated using both top-down and bottom-up methods
• Every figure cites a specific source with date (not "industry reports say")
• All figures presented as ranges, not points
• Every figure carries a tier label (T1/T2/T3)
• SAM filters are enumerated with individual reduction ratios
• SOM capture rate is justified (not asserted)
• Mode-specific threshold check is explicit (pass/fail with numbers)

Failure Modes

Mode	Signal	Recovery
Fabricated market size	Figure has no source citation or cites a source that cannot be verified	Remove figure. Replace with "insufficient data -- requires [specific search]" or widen search terms
False precision	TAM stated as single number ($2.3B) rather than range	Convert to range. If only one source, range = source figure +/- 20%. If multiple sources, range = min to max of sources
SAM = TAM (no real filtering)	SAM reduction is <20% of TAM without extraordinary justification	Review filters. At minimum: geographic, segment, and technical filters should apply. If genuinely broad, document why
SOM wishful thinking	SOM capture rate >5% of SAM in first year without evidence of existing traction or analogous precedent	Justify or reduce. Most startups capture <1% of SAM in year 1

Boundaries

In scope: TAM/SAM/SOM calculation, market timing assessment, mode-specific threshold validation, source citation, tier labeling, range estimation.

Out of scope: Competitive analysis (stg-analyzing-competition), segment definition (stg-segmenting-customers), pricing estimation (stg-designing-pricing), customer validation.