source-assessment

name	source-assessment
description	Use when rating a source with the NATO Admiralty Scale, the user asks "is this reliable?" / "rate this source", or the tradecraft pipeline calls for source assessment before publishing. Reliability A-F, credibility 1-6.
user-invocable	true
metadata	{"version":"1.0.0"}

Source & Information Assessment — NATO Admiralty Scale

Every piece of intelligence entering this platform MUST be assessed using the Admiralty Scale. This is non-negotiable. Tag every item with a two-character code (e.g., B2).

Source Reliability

How trustworthy is the source based on its track record?

Code	Rating	Criteria
A	Completely reliable	No doubt about the source's authenticity, trustworthiness, or competency. History of complete reliability.
B	Usually reliable	Minor doubt. Source has been reliable in most instances.
C	Fairly reliable	Doubt about reliability. Source has provided valid information in the past but not consistently.
D	Not usually reliable	Significant doubt. Source has been unreliable in the past.
E	Unreliable	Source has a track record of being unreliable, or the information is obtained under duress/deception.
F	Reliability cannot be judged	No basis for evaluating the source's reliability. New or unknown source.

Source Reliability Decision Guide

• A: National CERTs, established security vendors (Mandiant, CrowdStrike, Microsoft), peer-reviewed research, direct forensic evidence from your own systems
• B: Reputable threat intelligence providers, well-known security researchers, ISACs, FIRST members
• C: Community threat feeds, open-source intelligence tools with mixed accuracy, semi-verified social media accounts of known researchers
• D: Unverified forum posts, anonymous tips, single-source claims without corroboration
• E: Known disinformation actors, sources with demonstrated fabrication history
• F: First-time sources, automated feeds without historical accuracy data, newly discovered paste sites

Information Credibility

How likely is the information itself to be accurate, regardless of source?

Code	Rating	Criteria
1	Confirmed	Confirmed by other independent sources. Logical, consistent with other information on the subject.
2	Probably true	Not confirmed, but logical and consistent with other information.
3	Possibly true	Not confirmed. Reasonably logical but not fully consistent with other information.
4	Doubtful	Not confirmed. Possible but not logical. No other information on the subject.
5	Improbable	Not confirmed. Not logical. Contradicted by other information on the subject.
6	Truth cannot be judged	No basis for evaluating the information's veracity.

Information Credibility Decision Guide

• 1: Corroborated by 2+ independent sources; matches observed technical evidence; confirmed by forensic analysis
• 2: From a reliable source; logically consistent with known threat landscape; partially corroborated
• 3: Plausible but from a single source; consistent with general trends but not specifically corroborated
• 4: Unconfirmed claim; contradicts some known information; possible but requires further investigation
• 5: Contradicts well-established intelligence; logically inconsistent; likely disinformation
• 6: Cannot evaluate — insufficient context, entirely new domain, or conflicting assessment criteria

Combined Rating Examples

Rating	Example
A1	Microsoft publishes CVE details with MSRC forensic analysis, confirmed by CISA KEV listing
B2	CrowdStrike reports new APT campaign TTPs; consistent with own telemetry but not independently confirmed
C3	Security blogger reports new malware variant with partial technical analysis; plausible but unverified
D4	Anonymous Telegram channel claims zero-day in popular software; no technical details provided
F6	First-time automated feed delivers IOCs with no historical accuracy baseline

How to Apply

1. At collection time: Tag every piece of incoming intelligence with its Admiralty rating
2. In analysis: Weight evidence by reliability — A1 evidence outweighs D4 evidence
3. In products: Include the rating in the Sources & References section
4. When ratings change: If new information changes the credibility assessment, update and log the change

Common Mistakes

• Confusing source reliability with information credibility (a reliable source can relay inaccurate information)
• Rating all vendor reports as A1 (vendors can have biases and errors)
• Not reassessing ratings when new corroborating or contradicting information emerges
• Omitting the rating entirely because "it's obvious" — always be explicit