wc-refresh

name	wc-refresh
description	Use during a World Cup tournament when the published forecast is missing scores martj42 hasn't logged yet — the manual overlay refresh that pulls, ingests, re-fits, re-forecasts and pushes. Also covers how played knockouts condition the forecast and how knockout fixture dates are corrected at ingest.
argument-hint	[list-missing|refresh|no-push]
allowed-tools	Bash, Read, Edit, Glob, Grep

World Cup — manual refresh (martj42 lag)

martj42 backfills match scores ~1 day late, so during the tournament the daily world-cup.yml cron is structurally a day behind. To publish a forecast that includes scores martj42 hasn't logged yet:

1. scripts/wc/refresh_now.sh --list-missing — prints the played-but-unscored WC fixtures as CSV rows (team names already match martj42).
2. Paste them into data/wc/manual_results.csv and fill home_score,away_score (and pen_winner — the winning team's exact name — for a knockout match level on score, i.e. decided on penalties; leave blank otherwise).
3. scripts/wc/refresh_now.sh — pulls, ingests (overlay merged onto martj42's NA rows), re-fits (~46 min), re-forecasts, shows the champion table + data/wc/forecast.html, then on y commits + pushes and triggers the metill-platform pull (gh workflow run pull-sports-data.yml -R metill-is/metill-platform).

The overlay is committed and self-draining: once martj42 publishes the real score, ingest warns and martj42 wins — delete that row. The manual path does not touch data/wc/martj42_pointer.txt, so the next cron run is unaffected. Flags: --yes (skip confirm), --no-push (preview only), --no-pull (offline).

Played knockouts condition the forecast automatically

(Phase 2, shipped 2026-06-29.) wc_knockout_results() reads played cross-group fixtures and .wc_knockout_pins() (R/wc-knockout.R) builds the {match_no → winner} pins that simulate_world_cup() passes to wc_forward_bracket() — so a decided match's winner advances w.p. 1 / loser 0 (placement collapses) and bracket.json gains a played[] field the platform renders as a settled fixture. Penalty winners come from data/wc/shootouts.csv, maintained by wc_ingest_shootouts() from martj42's shootouts.csv + the overlay's pen_winner (martj42 canonical).

No re-fit is needed for new knockout results — pins act on the simulate step, so re-running scripts/wc/forecast.R alone re-publishes the conditioned forecast.

Knockout fixture dates are corrected at ingest

2026-07-06 incident: martj42 dated all four remaining R16 ties on the round's first day, so the published forecast — and the platform matchday reel, keyed on exact match_date — carried 4 matches on 6 July instead of 2.

wc_correct_knockout_dates() (R/wc-schedule.R) re-dates unplayed knockout rows to the stadium-local date of their official slot, venue-matched against the vendored data/wc/structure/wc2026_schedule.csv; unmappable rows keep martj42's date with a warning. --list-missing applies the same correction, so overlay rows always key on corrected dates.