Use when a marketing BUDGET has to be planned or managed in USD — allocation by bucket, channel, and month, test versus scale split, scale-up and stop-loss thresholds, reserve, a plan-versus-actual tracker, and a review cadence. Trigger on 'budget planning', 'marketing budget', 'split the budget across channels', 'stop loss threshold', 'quarterly budget', 'we keep overspending and nobody notices'. Also use when a number has been approved and nobody has divided it up. Not for — the revenue-backward math that produces the number, see `10-reverse-kpi-global`; paid media allocation only, see `54-media-plan-global`; paying an external vendor, see `67-agency-vendor-brief-global`.
Use when a marketing BUDGET has to be planned or managed in USD — allocation by bucket, channel, and month, test versus scale split, scale-up and stop-loss thresholds, reserve, a plan-versus-actual tracker, and a review cadence. Trigger on 'budget planning', 'marketing budget', 'split the budget across channels', 'stop loss threshold', 'quarterly budget', 'we keep overspending and nobody notices'. Also use when a number has been approved and nobody has divided it up. Not for — the revenue-backward math that produces the number, see `10-reverse-kpi-global`; paid media allocation only, see `54-media-plan-global`; paying an external vendor, see `67-agency-vendor-brief-global`.
metadata
{"version":"1.0.1","category":"strategy"}
license
MIT
triggers
["budget planning","marketing budget","budget allocation","how much should we spend on ads","campaign budget","stop loss threshold","quarterly budget","media budget split"]
output
File .md — budget plan: overview, allocation by bucket / channel / campaign / month, test vs scale split, adjustment rules and stop-loss thresholds, tracker, review cadence
A budget is not a fixed number — it is a decision tool: where you place bets and when you pull back. The leader must know total spend, ROI per channel, what to increase, and what to cut. Run 10-reverse-kpi-global first to derive the minimum budget from the revenue target before allocating anything.
Information gathering
Read .agents/product-marketing-context-global.md, the marketing plan, and the previous period's report if available. If missing, ask up to 4 questions:
Total budget and planning period? How much, for a month, a quarter, or a year (USD)?
Revenue target for the period? Needed to compute marketing as a percent of revenue and the minimum viable budget.
Active channels and last period's ROI? Meta / TikTok / Google / email + SMS / affiliates / agency — which has the best ROAS or CPA?
Any large campaign needing a reserve? Launch, Black Friday / Cyber Monday, or another seasonal peak.
Principles
Budget follows performance. Do not stay rigid to the opening plan. Channels that work get more; channels that do not get cut.
Always hold 10-15% in reserve. Never allocate everything on day one. The reserve covers unexpected opportunities and incidents.
Every dollar has a measurable KPI. "Branding you cannot measure" is not an acceptable line item.
Do not spread evenly. Concentrate on the best-performing channel. New channels get a minimum test allocation (10-15%) first.
Plan backwards from revenue, not from channels. The budget is the output of a revenue equation, not an arbitrary number.
Do not divide the annual budget evenly across quarters. Median Meta CPM in Q4 runs roughly 26% above Q1 (references/benchmarks-global.md), so identical monthly spend buys materially less reach in Q4. Either front-load acquisition into cheap Q1 months or explicitly reserve a larger Q4 allocation for the same volume.
Workflow
1. Choose the budget-setting method
Method
How it works
Strength
Weakness
Percent of revenue
Budget = X% of expected revenue
Simple
Ignores growth stage
Backwards from targets (recommended)
Set revenue > derive CAC/CPL > derive spend
Logical, evidence-based
Needs historical CAC/CPL
Competitive benchmark
Match category spend norms
Avoids under-investment
Ignores your own conditions
Seven-step backwards calculation (full detail in 10-reverse-kpi-global):
1. Target revenue
2. / AOV = orders needed
3. / close rate (30-50%) = hot leads needed
4. / nurture CVR (50-60%) = warm leads needed
5. / lead capture CVR (20-40%) = total reach needed
6. total leads x CPL = minimum ad budget
7. + content + tools + agency = total marketing budget
Build 3 scenarios: Conservative (CVR below category median, CPL above), Base case (at median), Optimistic (post-optimization). Plan against Base; prepare cashflow against Conservative.
2. Allocate by bucket
Bucket
Suggested share
Purpose
Paid ads (performance)
50-65%
Meta, TikTok, Google, retargeting
Content production
10-15%
Video, design, copywriting
Creators / UGC / affiliates
5-10%
Social proof, third-party reach
Agency / freelancers
Per scope
If used
Tools / software
2-5%
Ad tools, design, email/CRM, analytics
Campaign reserve
10-15%
Opportunities and incidents — NOT pre-allocated
3. Allocate by channel
Starting split (adjust to your category and your own data):
Channel
Share of ad budget
Objective
Expected CPA / ROAS
Meta Ads (Facebook + Instagram)
45-60%
Lead / purchase
TikTok Ads
15-20%
Awareness / lead
Google Search + Shopping
15-25%
High-intent capture
Email + SMS (Klaviyo, Mailchimp, Attentive)
5-10%
Retention, nurture, retargeting
New channel (test)
10-15%
Validate
For B2B, shift toward LinkedIn and Search — LinkedIn CPM runs $30-100+, so plan a higher CPL and a longer payback window. Allocation logic: channels with strong ROAS or CPA get a larger share; new channels get the minimum test allocation first; never divide evenly.
4. Split by funnel and by test vs scale
Standard performance split inside each channel:
Purpose
Share
Note
Testing (new creative + audiences)
30%
Always keep testing — creative fatigue arrives fast
Scale (confirmed winners)
50%
Only scale campaigns with winning data
Retargeting
15%
Warm audience — cheapest CPA in the funnel
Lookalike / similar audiences
5%
Expansion from converter seeds
By funnel: TOFU (reach/awareness), MOFU (lead/nurture), BOFU (conversion/retargeting). The ratio depends on stage: a launch skews TOFU, a mature program skews BOFU and retention.
5. Allocate by campaign and month
Campaign
Month
Budget (USD)
Objective
KPI
Always-on (retargeting + nurture)
Full period
Campaign A (launch or seasonal)
Testing budget
Full period
New channels or angles
Reserve
—
10-15%
Seasonality overlay before locking monthly numbers:
Period
Media cost vs Q1
Planning implication
January
~-21% below Q1 average
Cheapest acquisition window — stock budget here if cashflow allows
Q2-Q3
Rising
Normal operating cadence, build audiences for Q4
October
~+10%
Start of the expensive window
November
~+27% (peak)
Reserve extra budget or accept lower volume
Q4 average
~+26% above Q1
Do not plan Q4 at Q1 unit costs
In US election years, political spend displaces commercial inventory and adds roughly 20-40% to CPM in the last 30 days before the vote — build that into Q4 plans for US-targeted campaigns.
6. Scale-up and stop-loss rules
Increase budget when (BOTH conditions hold):
ROAS above 1.5x target for 7+ consecutive days, OR CPA at or below 70% of target with sufficient volume
Audience not yet saturated (frequency below 2.5)
Increment: +20-30% per step, never a sudden doubling
Cut or pause when (stop-loss):
Condition
Action
ROAS below break-even for 14 days
Cut the channel or campaign, move budget to what works
CPA above 2x target after 7 days of testing
Pause, replace creative or audience before restarting
Weekly CPA review rule (expressed relative to your own target, since absolute CPA varies 3-5x between regions and industries):
CPA vs target
Frequency
Verdict
<= 70% of target
< 2.0
WIN — scale +20-30%
70-100% of target
< 2.5
Acceptable — monitor
100-130% of target
2.0-2.5
Optimize — replace creative
> 130% of target
> 2.5
PAUSE and replace
Set the target itself using references/benchmarks-global.md for your region and industry, not a global average. Never increase budget while CPA is deteriorating — fix creative or tracking first.
7. Tracker and review cadence
Month
Planned budget
Actual spend
Variance
ROAS / ROI
Note
Month 1
Month 2
Month 3
Quarter total
Cadence
Work
Output
Weekly
Review CPA and ROAS per channel, apply the step-6 decision rules
Immediate adjustment when a threshold trips
Monthly
Review the full allocation, reconcile plan vs actual
Rebalance for next month
Quarterly
Review overall allocation strategy and LTV:CAC
Strategy adjustment
Unit economics health — LTV:CAC:
Ratio
Meaning
Action
< 1:1
Losing money on every customer
Stop scaling, fix product or price
1:1 to 3:1
Break-even to viable
Optimize conversion, raise AOV
> 3:1
Healthy
Begin scaling
> 5:1
Strong
Increase ad budget aggressively
Output structure
File name: budget-plan-[brand-name]-[YYYYMMDD].md — contains: I. Budget overview (total, revenue target, marketing as % of revenue, period) · II. Bucket allocation · III. Channel allocation · IV. Test vs scale split · V. Campaign and monthly allocation with seasonality overlay · VI. Decision rules and stop-loss thresholds · VII. Plan-vs-actual tracker · VIII. Review cadence.
Related skills
10-reverse-kpi-global: derive the minimum budget from the revenue target — run before allocating.
00-marketing-plan-global: the budget plan is the detailed version of the plan's budget section.
54-media-plan-global: turn the ad budget into a concrete campaign and ad-set level media plan.
21-ads-audit-global: audit a channel that repeatedly trips the stop-loss thresholds.
07-marketing-report-global: budget reconciliation inside the monthly report.
Quality checklist
Budget derived backwards from the revenue target, with 3 scenarios
All 3 allocation layers present: bucket > channel > campaign/month
Test vs scale split explicit (testing 30 / scale 50 / retargeting 15 / lookalike 5)
10-15% reserve held back, not pre-allocated
Scale-up and stop-loss thresholds use concrete numbers (ROAS, CPA vs target, frequency, days)
New channels receive only a 10-15% test allocation
Every budget line has a measurable KPI attached
Monthly plan accounts for Q4 media inflation rather than dividing the year evenly
Plan-vs-actual tracker exists by month
Weekly, monthly, and quarterly review cadence with defined outputs
