incentive-surface-diagnostic

name	incentive-surface-diagnostic
description	When reviewing a token launch, incentive design, growth loop, or community structure, surface what the rational participant will do under the proposed mechanics. If the rational move is extraction, the system will decay — name the structural problem before changing the tactic. Quick Test "What stops the average participant from selling/extracting instantly?"
composition_level	atom
extraction-lens	principle
source_attribution	Matt Bond (Hivemind Library)
license	pending-consent
status	candidate

Incentive Surface Diagnostic

When to use

• Reviewing token launch mechanics pre-TGE
• Evaluating unlock schedules, airdrop design, points → token conversion
• Assessing whether a growth loop rewards participation or extraction
• Anytime a founder says "the community will hold"
• Designing community-formation mechanics

When NOT to use

• Meme launches intentionally optimizing for volatility (extraction is the design)
• Non-token products without ownership layers
• Closed betas without liquidity events
• Tactical messaging work (use brand-narrative tools)

Core procedure

Step 1: Ask the Quick Test

"What stops the average participant from selling or extracting instantly?"

This is the diagnostic question. The user's answer reveals whether the incentive structure is aligned or misaligned.

Step 2: Classify the answer

Red flags (misaligned):

• "Community vibes"
• "Belief"
• "Narrative"
• "We'll build fast"
• "They'll want to be part of the journey"

Green flags (aligned):

• "They lose acceleration"
• "They forfeit earned advantages"
• "Upside compounds with continued participation"
• "Multi-role behavior unlocks exponential rewards"

Step 3: If misaligned, surface the extraction vector

Before recommending tactical fixes, identify the structural cause:

• Is risk front-loaded on the community?
• Is upside immediate and fully liquid?
• Is conviction optional?

If yes to any → extraction dominates. Name it. Redesign before shipping.

Step 4: Apply the rule

Alignment exists only when the highest expected value comes from staying, participating, and compounding.

If the rational move is to extract value, the system will decay regardless of how good the tactical comms are.

Output format

QUICK TEST ANSWER: [user's response]
CLASSIFICATION: aligned | misaligned

IF MISALIGNED:
- Risk front-loading: yes/no
- Immediate liquid upside: yes/no
- Optional conviction: yes/no
EXTRACTION VECTOR: [name the structural cause]
RECOMMENDED REDESIGN: [structural fix, not tactical]

Failure mode

Treating extraction symptoms as marketing problems. "Engagement is dropping" or "the chart is bleeding" looks like a marketing failure but is usually an incentive design failure manifesting downstream. The skill catches this by redirecting to the structural cause before tactical work begins.

Related skills

• dual-trust-threshold-mapping — diagnoses the trust-friction layer; pairs with this for adoption stalls
• compound-vs-collapse-attention — applies the same logic to attention rather than tokens
• launches-as-micro-economies — broader frame for thinking about token launches as economy design
• contrarian-strategy-reframes — Reframe 1 (marketing IS the product) connects to incentive design