| name | prediction-markets-analysis |
| description | Generate deep research reports on prediction market events using the Octagon Prediction Markets Agent. Combines real-time Kalshi market data with AI-driven analysis to surface price drivers, compare market vs. model probabilities, and identify potential mispricings across 120+ active markets. |
Prediction Markets Analysis
Generate comprehensive research reports on prediction market events using the Octagon Prediction Markets Agent. This skill combines real-time Kalshi market data with AI-driven analysis to identify mispricings, surface price drivers, and provide actionable trading insights.
Prerequisites
Ensure the Octagon Claude plugin is installed and configured in Claude Code before invoking this skill.
Note: Report generation requires Octagon Plus, Pro, or Enterprise subscription (3 credits per report). Cached reports are free for all users.
Core Functionality
The Prediction Markets Agent provides:
| Capability | Description |
|---|
| Market vs. Model Probability | Computes independent model probability and compares against live market price |
| Event-Driven Research | Identifies key claims, catalysts, and decision-flipping events |
| Historical Resolution Tracking | Surfaces past resolution outcomes for context on base rates |
| Contract Snapshot | Returns live bid/ask spreads, last traded price, volume, and open interest |
| Cross-Category Coverage | 120+ active markets across Politics, Economics, Crypto, Sports, Entertainment, Science & Tech, Climate |
Model Variants
| Variant | Description | Use Case |
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