resolution-watch

name	resolution-watch
description	monitor polymarket markets that are close to resolution or likely to be resolved soon. use when the user wants official-source checking, resolution readiness, ambiguity flags, or a scheduled workflow for near-resolution markets.

resolution watch

Use this skill to answer one question:

which markets are approaching resolution in a way that creates operational or settlement risk right now?

This skill is the near-resolution monitoring layer:

• downstream of watchlists, open positions, and open orders
• parallel to portfolio-risk-review
• upstream of order-ticket when the user needs a concrete cancel or reduction plan

It should focus on settlement readiness and ambiguity, not thesis generation.

default mode

• Default to resolution mode.
• In resolution mode, optimize for official-source checking, wording traps, timing risk, and posture recommendations.
• Do not drift into fresh fair-value work unless the user explicitly changes the task.

what this skill is for

Use this skill when the user is effectively asking:

• which markets are close to resolution?
• what official evidence is likely to matter?
• where could settlement get messy?
• which positions or resting orders need attention before resolution?

Use this skill for:

• near-resolution watchlists
• resolution-readiness checks
• operational monitoring around deadlines, results, releases, or official calls
• identifying markets where ambiguity creates disproportionate risk

Do not use this skill to:

• do broad market discovery
• build a fresh trade thesis
• submit or cancel orders without explicit instruction
• treat headline certainty as resolution certainty

minimum viable input checklist

Do not finalize a resolution watch until you have, or explicitly mark as missing:

• one market or a defined near-resolution set
• current resolution text
• the most likely official or primary source that will matter
• one timing anchor
• one ambiguity or edge-case check

When available, also pull:

• positions or open orders tied to the market
• comments when they reveal real wording disputes or rule confusion

outside-in frame

Before reporting, inspect the market from these lenses:

• rules lens: what does the actual resolution language require?
• source lens: what official source is likely to decide the outcome?
• timing lens: when should evidence arrive, and how much lag risk exists?
• ambiguity lens: what wording trap or procedural edge case could break consensus?
• workflow lens: is the user best served by watch, risk review, or direct order adjustment?

dependency and handoff rules

Use the minimum live set needed:

• get_market_snapshot
• comments when ambiguity may be reflected there
• get_positions or get_open_orders when the user has live exposure

If the main missing piece is:

• exposure clustering across the whole book -> portfolio-risk-review
• current-state read on one market -> market-memo
• deeper evidence on the underlying event -> deep-market-research
• exact cancel or reduction mechanics -> order-ticket

main workflow

1. Normalize the assignment

Write a 1-2 line intent statement for yourself covering:

• which near-resolution markets are in scope
• whether the goal is monitoring, exposure control, or official-source readiness

2. Refresh the live setup

Confirm:

• current market snapshot
• resolution text
• timing or deadline context
• whether the user has live positions or resting orders at risk

3. Identify the likely decision evidence

Name:

• the expected official source
• the likely timing of that source
• what would count as decisive versus inconclusive evidence

4. Map ambiguity and operational risk

At minimum, check for:

• wording traps
• timing uncertainty
• conflicting official or quasi-official sources
• stale orders that may remain live into messy resolution windows

5. Recommend posture, not execution

Choose the appropriate posture:

• wait
• monitor closely
• reduce risk
• prepare to cancel stale orders

Do not execute anything unless explicitly asked.

hard rules

• Do not assume resolution rules from headlines or common sense alone.
• Do not place or cancel orders in this skill without explicit instruction.
• Do not overstate certainty when the official source path is still unclear.
• Do not ignore open orders when near-resolution ambiguity is high.
• Do not turn this into a general market memo.

output contract

Return exactly these sections in this order.

resolution watch

watch intent

State in 1-2 sentences:

• what near-resolution set was reviewed
• what risk the watch is focused on

markets to watch

Use one flat bullet block per market:

• market name
• why it is close to resolution
• why it deserves attention now

likely resolution evidence

For each market, state:

• best official or primary source
• expected timing
• what would likely count as decisive evidence

ambiguity and risk

List:

• wording traps
• timing uncertainty
• source conflict risk
• exposure or stale-order risk if relevant

recommended posture

Choose for each market:

• wait
• monitor
• reduce risk
• prepare to cancel stale orders

Explain why.

next handoff

Choose one:

• remain in resolution-watch
• hand off to portfolio-risk-review
• hand off to market-memo
• hand off to deep-market-research
• hand off to order-ticket

Explain why that is the cheapest useful next step.

completion criteria

The watch is complete only when:

• resolution wording has been checked
• an official-source path is identified
• ambiguity is explicit
• timing risk is explicit
• any live exposure risk is noted
• no live order action is taken

common failure modes

• treating press coverage as enough to settle the market
• skipping the actual resolution text
• failing to identify the official source path
• ignoring stale orders near messy resolution windows
• drifting into thesis generation instead of operational watchfulness

activation tests

Should trigger

• "which of these markets are close to resolution?"
• "what official evidence will matter for settlement?"
• "watch this market until it is ready to resolve."
• "are there wording traps or ambiguity here?"
• "do any of my positions need attention before resolution?"

Should not trigger

• "rank these new markets for research."
• "what is fair value here?"
• "write a market memo."
• "submit an order."
• "review my entire portfolio."

resource map

• portfolio-risk-review — use when the main problem is exposure management across the book
• market-memo — use when one name needs a compact live-state read beyond settlement mechanics
• deep-market-research — use when the key issue is underlying-event evidence rather than resolution readiness
• order-ticket — use when the user explicitly wants a cancel or reduction plan