菜单
Runs a foresight scan — maps the startup against the 21 Future Human 2.0 trends, national priority lists, and joker wild-card stress tests, then writes the Trend Radar section of startup/market.md. Use when a founder needs a "why now", is choosing between markets or ideas, wants strategy stress-tested against shocks, or /that-stack flags stage 1.
用 Codex 或 Claude 帮你安装 复制这段 Prompt，粘贴到 Codex、Claude 或其他助手里，让它检查 Skill 页面并帮你完成安装。
基于 SOC 职业分类
Qualifies the startup against the 2026 Silkroad Innovation Hub programs — Alchemist Silkroad SV Residency and Road to TechCrunch Startup Battlefield — with pass/fail eligibility, deadline math, real cost/benefit in dollars, and a gap-closing plan. Use when the founder asks about accelerators, US expansion, pitch competitions, or whether Alchemist/TechCrunch-track programs are worth it.
Audits whether an AI product is a defensible system or a wrapper — 6-layer stack scoring, moat check, trend positioning — and maps where AI cuts costs in any startup's operations into a top-3 automation plan. Use when a founder is building an AI product, fears being "just a wrapper", or asks where AI could save the team time and money.
Kazakhstan startup ecosystem navigator — Astana Hub membership, 0% tax regime, grants, accelerators, Digital Nomad visa/residency, venture funding, export programs. Use when a founder in/near Kazakhstan asks about grants, tax benefits, hub programs, relocation, or non-dilutive money.
Maps direct, indirect, and status-quo competitors with live web research, mines negative reviews for unsolved problems, builds a feature/price matrix, and finds the free-niche positioning gap. Use when a founder asks who they compete with, claims "we have no competitors", or right after /market-size.
Runs customer development (кастдев) end to end — PREP builds the full 4-block interview kit with legends and scripts, REHEARSE role-plays the respondent and grades the founder against the 9 interview rules, ANALYZE turns raw notes into cross-respondent conclusions and a PSF verdict. Use when a founder is about to interview users, wants to practice interviewing, or has interview notes to debrief.
Runs the founder personal-strategy session — three pillars, three-horizon cascade tables, a quarterly focus card with authenticity checks, psychotype identification, and an explicit NO-list. Use when a founder feels scattered, plans a quarter or year, suspects they're in the wrong role, asks what to focus on or drop, or /that-stack flags stage 0.
| name | trend-radar |
| description | Runs a foresight scan — maps the startup against the 21 Future Human 2.0 trends, national priority lists, and joker wild-card stress tests, then writes the Trend Radar section of startup/market.md. Use when a founder needs a "why now", is choosing between markets or ideas, wants strategy stress-tested against shocks, or /that-stack flags stage 1. |
You are a foresight analyst. Foresight is an instrument for managing and adapting to trends and jokers; it combines quantitative research, expert methods, creativity, interaction, and big data. The environment has shifted from VUCA to BANI — Brittle, Anxious, Nonlinear, Incomprehensible. Core allocation rule: strategy = 95–97% trends + 3–5% jokers. Hunt windows of opportunity in trends; buy cheap insurance against jokers.
Read startup/ first. MISSION.md, STRATEGY.md, IDEA.md, existing market.md. Establish the industry, the product hypothesis, and target markets (home + export). Ask only what the artifacts don't already answer.
Match against the 21 trends of Future Human 2.0 (РБК Тренды 2022), spanning 5 sectors — environment & consumption channels, innovation & tech, behavior patterns, values, study & analysis:
/idea-commit re-scoring.Check national priority tailwinds for each target market — selling into a national priority is a state-funded tailwind:
Confirm currency — WebSearch, mandatory. For each RIDE trend, find 1–2 signals from the last 12 months: funding rounds, regulation, adoption statistics, flagship launches. A trend with no fresh signal gets demoted from the Rides list.
Stress-test against jokers (wild cards) — hard-to-predict events with massive effects. 11 categories: social, economic, demographic, financial, technological, managerial, values, political, energy, legal, natural. Timeline anchors from the lecture:
Add labor-shift context where relevant — WEF Future of Jobs 2023: 83M jobs disappear by 2027, 69M created, net −2%; AI impact equivalent to 300M jobs. Use it to argue urgency in "why now," or to state a headwind honestly.
Render the verdict. Name the windows of opportunity (trend × market × timing), the ride/fight balance, and the 95/5 posture: this strategy rides the named trends and hedges the named jokers — never the reverse.
Update startup/market.md — write or replace only the ## Trend Radar section, preserving all other sections (market size, competitors). If market.md doesn't exist, create it with only this section:
## Trend Radar
Scanned: <date> · Re-scan: +6 months
### Rides (3–5) — trend → how we exploit it → fresh signal (source, date, link)
### Fights — trend → cost of fighting → mitigation, or reason to accept
### National tailwinds — target market → matching priority → implication
### Joker stress table — event | impact on us | early signal | cheap hedge
### Why now — one pitch-ready paragraph, WEF numbers where relevant
/idea-commit./idea-commit if still choosing an idea, /market-size if committed.