weather

name	weather
description	Weather betting - NOAA data for Polymarket weather markets
command	weather
emoji	🌤️
gates	{"envs":["POLY_API_KEY"]}

Weather Betting

Use NOAA weather forecasts to find edge on Polymarket weather markets.

Commands

/weather scan                              Scan all weather markets for edge
/weather forecast <city>                   Get NOAA forecast for a city
/weather markets                           List active weather markets
/weather edge <market-id>                  Calculate edge for specific market
/weather bet <market-id> <amount>          Execute bet
/weather auto [--threshold 10]             Auto-bet on high-edge markets
/weather history                           View bet history

Examples

/weather forecast "New York"
/weather scan
/weather edge abc123
/weather bet abc123 10
/weather auto --threshold 15

How It Works

1. Fetch NOAA Forecast: Get official NWS weather data (free, no API key)
2. Match to Markets: Find Polymarket weather markets for the same location/date
3. Calculate Edge: Compare NOAA probability to market YES price
4. Bet if Edge: If NOAA probability differs significantly from market, bet

Edge Calculation

Edge = NOAA Probability - Market Price

Example:
  NOAA says 80% chance of rain in NYC tomorrow
  Polymarket "Will it rain in NYC?" YES price: 0.65 (65%)
  Edge = 80% - 65% = +15% -> Bet YES

Supported Market Types

• Temperature: "Will NYC exceed 90°F on Saturday?"
• Precipitation: "Will it rain in LA tomorrow?"
• Snow: "Will Chicago get 6+ inches of snow?"
• Record: "Will Phoenix hit a record high this week?"

Confidence Levels

• High: Edge >= 15%, reliable forecast data
• Medium: Edge 10-15%, some uncertainty
• Low: Edge 5-10%, more speculative

Position Sizing

Uses quarter-Kelly criterion for conservative sizing:

Bet Size = Bankroll * (Edge / Odds) * 0.25

Capped at 10% of bankroll per bet.

Supported Cities

Major US cities including: New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix, Philadelphia, San Antonio, San Diego, Dallas, San Jose, Austin, Jacksonville, San Francisco, Seattle, Denver, Washington DC, Boston, Nashville, Detroit, and more.