hypothesis-ledger-pattern

name	hypothesis-ledger-pattern
description	Shared append-only hypothesis ledger pattern. Defines schema, operations, and rules for S-###/H-###/C-###/CT-### ledgers across SEO, marketing, CRM, and content domains.
metadata	{"version":"1.3.0","git_hash":"c05387b"}

Hypothesis Ledger Pattern

Every action across every domain is logged as a falsifiable hypothesis with a measurable outcome. This pattern defines the shared infrastructure. Domain ledgers (SEO, marketing, CRM) configure it with their own prefix, window, path, and metrics.

Principle

No action without a hypothesis. No hypothesis without a metric. No metric without a baseline. Every row is append-only. History is never rewritten.

Storage

Each domain stores its ledger at:

/var/www/html/systemprompt-web/reports/{domain}/data/hypothesis-ledger.md

Single markdown file. One table. Newest rows at the bottom.

Schema

| id | logged | channel | action | hypothesis | metric | baseline | window_end | result | status | notes |

Field	Description
id	{PREFIX}-### sequential, zero-padded to 3 digits. Each domain has its own namespace.
logged	YYYY-MM-DD the action was taken.
channel	Domain-specific enum (see domain config below).
action	One-line past-tense description. Full draft goes in data/actions/{PREFIX}-###.md.
hypothesis	"If ... then ... within ..." statement, trimmed to one line. Must be falsifiable.
metric	Exact field name from the domain's metric whitelist (validated on append).
baseline	Numeric value of metric at the moment of logging.
window_end	YYYY-MM-DD when the hypothesis matures. Uses domain default window.
result	Numeric value of metric at window_end. Empty while in-flight.
status	IN-FLIGHT, SEEDED, PASS, FAIL, INCONCLUSIVE, or ABORTED.
notes	Free text, max 140 characters.

Status Lifecycle

SEEDED → IN-FLIGHT → PASS | FAIL | INCONCLUSIVE
                   → ABORTED (if conditions change before window_end)

• SEEDED: hypothesis logged but prerequisites not yet met (e.g., waiting for indexing)
• IN-FLIGHT: action taken, waiting for window_end
• PASS/FAIL/INCONCLUSIVE: scored at or after window_end

Action Text Store

Full context for each action lives in:

reports/{domain}/data/actions/{PREFIX}-###.md

Each file contains: timestamp, what was changed, before/after values, target URLs, measurement notes.

Operations

Every domain ledger implements these 6 operations:

Operation	Description
next-id	Allocate the next sequential {PREFIX}-### ID
log {fields}	Append new row + write actions/{PREFIX}-###.md
in-flight	Return rows where status = IN-FLIGHT
maturing {date}	Return rows where window_end <= date AND status = IN-FLIGHT
score {id} {result} {status} {note}	Close out a hypothesis row
stats	Pass/fail tally by channel

Log operation

1. Allocate next ID via next-id.
2. Pull current value of metric from the domain's data source (monitor report, GSC data, analytics).
3. Validate metric is in the domain's whitelist. Reject if not.
4. Append row to ledger with status = IN-FLIGHT or SEEDED.
5. Write actions/{PREFIX}-###.md with full context.
6. Return the assigned ID.

Score operation

1. Read the row, confirm status is IN-FLIGHT.
2. Append a new row with the same ID and closed-out values. Never edit existing rows.
3. If PASS, emit a diff suggestion for the strategy master's Winning Tactics section.
4. If FAIL, emit a diff suggestion for the Dead Hypotheses section.

Anti-Sludge Rules

• Every hypothesis must be falsifiable: it must name a specific metric, a baseline, and a target direction.
• Every metric must come from the domain's validated whitelist. No invented metrics.
• Rows are never edited in place. Corrections are appended as new rows.
• No hypothesis without a measurable outcome. "Improve brand awareness" is not a hypothesis.
• No action without a logged hypothesis. If you take an action, log it.

Domain Configuration

Config	SEO	Marketing	CRM	Content
Prefix	S-###	H-###	C-###	CT-###
Default window	14 days	7 days	14 days	14 days
Storage path	reports/seo/data/	reports/marketing/data/	reports/crm/data/	reports/content/data/
Actions path	reports/seo/data/actions/	reports/marketing/data/actions/	reports/crm/data/actions/	reports/content/data/actions/
Metric source	GSC + DataForSEO + daily-seo-brief	lead-tracker + analytics	pipeline-tracker + lead-enrichment	daily-seo-brief
Strategy master	seo-strategy-master	marketing-strategy-master	crm-strategy-master	content-strategy-master
Channels	seo, content, technical, linking, indexing, ctr	reddit, linkedin, x, hn, crates, website, email, seo, ai-agent	pipeline, email, enrichment, outreach	optimisation, new-guide, revision, distribution, technical

Note: Social media uses the marketing ledger (H-### prefix). Social hypotheses are a subset of marketing hypotheses, not a separate ledger.

Domain ledger skills (seo:seo-hypothesis-ledger, commons:marketing-hypothesis-ledger, crm:crm-hypothesis-ledger, content:content-hypothesis-ledger) reference this pattern and add their specific metric whitelist and channel enum.