forecast-builder

name	forecast-builder
description	Generates 13-month rolling forecast with three scenarios (best-case, commit, upside). Tracks variance trending, inputs historical conversion rates, and surfaces confidence gaps.
allowed-tools	Read, Write
effort	high

When to activate

Weekly before leadership sync, or monthly for board updates. Requires current pipeline snapshot and historical close rates by stage and rep.

When NOT to use

Not for annual strategic planning (use annual budget process). Not for individual deal coaching. Not without pipeline data refresh within 24 hours.

Forecast Methodology

Three Scenarios:

• Commit (60% confidence): Conservative forecast; deals with >50% probability only. Sum = expected close value.
• Best-Case (90% confidence): All deals >30% probability. Upper bound for upside.
• Upside: Everything >10% probability. Stretch scenario for best execution.

Formula per scenario:

• For each open deal: estimated value × close probability (by scenario threshold) = weighted value
• Sum across all deals by stage and rep
• Compare to monthly target; calculate variance

Trending:

• Compare current forecast vs. prior week (velocity)
• Compare vs. YTD forecast (accuracy)
• Calculate variance %: (Commit forecast - Prior month actual close) / Prior month actual × 100

Output Format

# 13-Month Rolling Forecast — {Date}

**Data Refresh:** {Timestamp}
**Confidence Level:** {High / Medium / Low} based on pipeline age

---

## Forecast Summary (13 Months)

| Month | Commit | Best-Case | Upside | Target | Var % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month 1 | ${} | ${} | ${} | ${} | {%} |
| ...
| **Total** | **${}** | **${}** | **${}** | **${}** | **{%}** |

---

## Month-by-Month Commit Breakdown (Next 3 Months)

| Stage | Count | Value | Prob | Weighted | % of Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Negotiation | {N} | ${} | {%} | ${} | {%} |
| Proposal | {N} | ${} | {%} | ${} | {%} |
| Qualification | {N} | ${} | {%} | ${} | {%} |
| **Total** | **{N}** | **${}** | — | **${}** | **100%** |

---

## Rep-by-Rep Forecast (Month 1)

| Rep | Commit | Target | Var % | Status | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| {Name} | ${} | ${} | {%} | {Green/Yellow/Red} | {Note if trending miss} |

---

## Variance Trending

| Period | Forecast | Actual | Variance | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month -1 | ${} | ${} | {%} | {Green/Yellow/Red} |
| Month -2 | ${} | ${} | {%} | {Green/Yellow/Red} |

---

## Confidence Assessment

**High-confidence deals** (>75% probability): ${} ({%} of forecast)  
**Medium-confidence deals** (50–75% probability): ${} ({%} of forecast)  
**Low-confidence deals** (<50% probability): ${} ({%} of forecast)

**Risk:** {X} deals heavily dependent on single stakeholder or competitive threat.

---

## Recommended Actions

- {Action if variance >10%}
- {Action if low-confidence concentration >40%}

Example

13-Month Rolling Forecast — 2026-06-10

Data Refresh: 2026-06-10 09:00 UTC
Confidence Level: Medium (73% of forecast is >50% probability)

---

Forecast Summary (13 Months)

Month	Commit	Best-Case	Upside	Target	Var %
Jun	$920K	$1.1M	$1.3M	$1.1M	-16%
Jul	$1.05M	$1.25M	$1.4M	$1.1M	-5%
Aug	$980K	$1.15M	$1.35M	$1.1M	-11%
Sep	$1.12M	$1.3M	$1.5M	$1.1M	+2%
Q3 Total	$4.07M	$4.8M	$5.55M	$3.3M	+23%

---

Month-by-Month Commit Breakdown (June)

Stage	Count	Value	Prob	Weighted	% of Close
Negotiation	8	$600K	72%	$432K	47%
Proposal	16	$1.1M	41%	$451K	49%
Qualification	22	$900K	8%	$72K	8%
Total	46	$2.6M	—	$955K	100%

---

Rep-by-Rep Forecast (June)

Rep	Commit	Target	Var %	Status	Risk
Sarah Chen	$320K	$366K	-12%	Yellow	Dependent on 2 large deals (>$100K)
James Rodriguez	$185K	$183K	+1%	Green	On track
Maria Garcia	$220K	$183K	+20%	Green	Strong Negotiation pipeline
David Kim	$195K	$183K	+7%	Green	On track

---

Variance Trending

Period	Forecast	Actual	Variance	Status
May	$1.08M	$1.05M	-3%	Green
Apr	$1.05M	$980K	-7%	Yellow
Mar	$1.2M	$1.15M	-4%	Green

Trend: Commit forecast trending conservative (actual beating forecast by 3–7%). Confidence increasing.

---

Confidence Assessment

High-confidence deals (>75% probability): $580K (60% of forecast)
Medium-confidence deals (50–75% probability): $280K (30% of forecast)
Low-confidence deals (<50% probability): $95K (10% of forecast)

Risk: Two large deals (OPP-2847 Acme, OPP-2903 TechFlow) represent $320K (35% of month close). Delay impacts variance >15%.

---

Recommended Actions

• Monitor Acme deal closely; schedule stakeholder check-in by June 13 to confirm close date
• TechFlow decision timeline slipping; obtain written commitment on close date or move to July forecast
• Sales team showing strong execution (actual beat forecast); maintain coaching on Qualification stage conversion

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